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Serie A Predictions > Jan 21st - 24th


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Check out the odds and ratings for this weekend's Italian Serie A matches. It's intriguing to see that not only are a couple of the usual suspects in Napoli and Inter Milan picking up decent results lately but other teams lower down such as Empoli, Monza, Lecce, and Spezia have started to string positive results together. Anyone brave enough to take on Spezia winning against Roma? Monza beating Sassuolo also seems like decent value given their form. Hit us with your predictions! :ok

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Salernitana vs Napoli

Salernitana have never won Napoli in the past, which take the lower hand. Napoli defeated Juventus 5-1 in recent games and Salernitana lost to Atalanta 8-2. A high-scoring result is foreseable.

Pick: 2

O/U Pick: Over 3

AH Pick: Napoli -1.5

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Fiorentina -1/4 @1.86
Min price to bet: -1/4 @1.80 or -1/2 @2.13
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: Viola are without rb Dodo and cf Cabral; but it's worse for Torino, who are without key cm Lukic, fullback Lazaro, and their important cb Schuurs is not fully fit, and in best case scenario will be on the bench (no chance for starting 11, as coach Juric has confirmed in today's press conf); fullback Aina is also still out (close to returning to the squad though)
Notes: These two teams are in mid-table, level on points, with identical 6-5-7 record after 18 rounds. Torino should have a small fitness edge for this game, as Viola had a Cup game on Wed (1-0 win v Samp), which they've played with close to best possible 11 - however, besides lower quality overall, the visitors also have some quite bad team-news for this game, and they'll be without some important players, including cm Lukic; who is their key player, probably the most important in 11, so much of what they do when in possession goes through him. With these team-news, better overall quality and home field advantage as well, we give Viola >50% to get 3 pts tomorrow; though it has to be said that Torino are one of the most difficult teams to play against in Serie A (for favorites), as they are so sound defensively, always well-organized; often quite annoying for heavy favs. Still, Fiorentina have definitely deserved to win more points so far, they've been quite unlucky in general, and they've been very inefficient considering their offensive efforts. Their superb +6 shots per game differential is bettered only by runaway leaders Napoli; it's also only Napoli and Milan who have better shots on target differential than Fiorentina; and Viola's xG a big 5 goals higher than their actual number of goals scored after 18 games. Both -1/2 and -1/4 prices look good at the moment, we'll go for the main hcap 1/4 and lower price, and hope that history repeats itself here, as Torino have traditionally done very poor in Florenz: they've lost their last 3 here, and they're winless with 0-6-12 in last 18 league games at Artemio Franchi.

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Roma -3/4 @2.05
Min price to bet: -3/4 @1.96 or -1/2 @1.75
Model +value: yes
Significant team news: Roma are without their star am Zaniolo, who is about to leave the club; but Siena are in much worse position, without a few key players, with key cb Kiwior just sold to Arsenal, another starting cb Nikolaou suspended, key cf Nzola (their top scorer with 9 goals, noone else has scored 2+) injured, and important cm Bastoni, who is their best rated player this season, and also the only guy besides Nzola to score more than 1 goal so far, also out injured
Note: Spezia are unbeaten in last 5 Serie A games, fine 2-3-0 run that pushed them away from the relegation zone (they have 7 pts cushion at the moment); however this will be very difficult game for them, as they have some really bad team-news, and they'll have to play without 4 regular starters, including key players in all 3 key areas of the field. Fantastic chance for Roma to get 3 pts, they are in fine form after the World Cup, with 2 league wins and a big point won in Milan (albeit in a lucky 2-2 draw); they are also through to the 1/4 finals of Coppa Italia; and with Juventus just been deducted 15 pts, the chances for Champions League football next season are more than realistic for Mourinho's boys. Ok weather conditions for this time of the year, no snow or rain or wind, with temp 7-8c during the match.

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Lazio vs Milan

Lazio, who won their previous game, will hope for a similar result following the 1-0 Coppa Italia success versus Bologna. However, the hosts haven’t been very consistent in the Italian top flight, winning just once in the last four rounds. Nevertheless, they can get closer to the Champions League zone, as they are three points behind Roma, having a game in hand. Over their prior six fixtures, Maurizio Sarri's Lazio has hit the target a total of 7 times, an average number of goals per match equal to 1.17. There’s just the sole fitness concern for the Lazio boss Maurizio Sarri to be concerned with, thanks to an otherwise strong squad. Ciro Immobile (Hamstring Injury) won’t play.

After being beaten in their last game against Inter in the Supercoppa competition, Milan and their traveling supporters will be hoping they can get a better result. The defending champions tied two draws in Serie A, and they are 12 points behind Napoli. Looking at their form, Milan has been scored against in 6 of their last six matches, conceding ten goals in all. In defense, Rossoneri just haven’t been too solid at all. Coming into this contest, Milan has not been beaten in their last three league matches away from home. Milan boss Stefano Pioli has not got a full squad to pick from. Rade Krunic (Muscle Fatigue), Mike Maignan (Disrupted Calf Muscle), Fodé Ballo-Touré (Acromioclavicular Separation), Zlatan Ibrahimović (Knee Surgery), and Alessandro Florenzi (Hamstring Injury) will miss out on this game.

Full-Time Winner Odds & Prediction

It is going to be a close encounter that can easily go either way. Neither team has been consistent recently, and we wouldn’t be surprised if this clash ends in a draw.

Goals Market Prediction

Milan’s eight of the last nine road games went over a 2.5 margin, and we might expect another efficient match. Therefore, we believe both teams will be able to find the back of the opponent’s net on Tuesday evening.

Draw @ 3.50

BTTS Yes @ 1.70

Correct score 1:1 @ 6.70

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