Teo_ Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Following last few days' close calls that Aldric and Skittle emphasized (thank you, gents!), I took a step back and analyzed the thought process behind the riskier bets. While not exactly terrible, there are a few things that I need to correct, like a certain degree of overconfidence and the tendency to rush things. Over the last few days I started feeling a bit disappointed upon checking 2-3 games and finding no betting opportunity, so I'd analyze again, looking for new angles and kind of convincing myself that a certain possible bet wasn't as risky as I had initially thought it to be. No major consequences so far, but my luck is bound to run out if I keep pushing it. This is also the mindset that preceded some past failures, so I should be all too familiar with how one poor decision can render several good (or moderately good) ones irrelevant. Obviously, there's no magic pill to keep my attitude in line; if I come up with a daily betting limit (in terms of number of bets or profit), I'll be feeling very frustrated when I notice a good opportunity that I can't take advantage of; this will fuel my risk appetite down the line, so not good. Anyway, that would be like trying to stop smoking by staying away from anyone who smokes or places that are bound to trigger cravings: you're not really addressing the addiction, but hoping it will simply subside if you avoid triggers for long enough... which it doesn't. Sure, it's different for everyone; that's how I function. The best way to go about it, for me at least, will be to constantly remind myself of the deadline I started this challenge with: the end of the year. As we're still in January, I have plenty of time to hit it, especially considering the numbers: taking Betfair's fee into account, I need 637 bets at 1.01 to increase the current balance, 34.48, to above 12.5K (12,545.31 to be precise). Sound like a lot, but, if I were to place 3 bets per day, I'd need 212-213 days to complete the challenge. Around 7 months. Pretty reasonable, to say the least. Now, that's the theory. Sounds easy enough, but implementing it may prove challenging, especially after a few fruitful days. I may need to take some days off betting every now and then, to tone down the eagerness to place one more bet... and one more... and one more, the last one, I promise! Guess most punters know what I'm talking about here. With this in mind: 637 bets @ 1.01 left. Piece of cake, walk in the park ? harry_rag, alexcaruso808 and aldric 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 80 Persik Kediri v Madura Utd: under 5.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 45th minute, 1-0) Stake: 34.11 (0.37 didn't get matched) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 81 Future FC v Al-Masry: under 5.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 10th minute, 0-0) Stake: 34.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 82 Ghazl El Mahallah v Zamalek: under 6.5 @ 1.02 (in-play, 7th minute, 1-0) Stake: 35.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bet 83 Bayern Munich v FC Koln: under 5.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 65th minute, 0-1) Stake: 35.78 Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Bet 84 Persija Jakarta v PSM Makassar: under 5.5 @ 1.02 (in-play, 14th minute, 0-0) Stake: 36.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Aaaand done! 92nd minute goal, so much for the first attempt ? I will take a few days to assess and be back with the second try. I'm thinking of concentrating on over 0.5s and 1.5s for a while, then laying underdogs in-play, once I've reached the bankroll to do so, but I will give it some more thought and come up with a plan. Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Unlucky. Maybe think about sticking to leagues that you have some knowledge on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 On 1/26/2023 at 9:04 PM, aldric said: Unlucky. Maybe think about sticking to leagues that you have some knowledge on? Appreciate the advice, but, to be honest, I don't have much knowledge on any leagues. I mainly bet on stats and some info on missing players, whenever I can find it, so it doesn't look like concentrating on certain leagues could make much of a difference in my case. It would surely be a good idea to improve my knowledge on the main leagues, at least, but this will take time and some getting used to following football news, so, for the time being, I will have to stick to stats and hope I dodge most bullets. aldric 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Attempt 2: let's get started! Starting bankroll: $10 Bet 1 Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix: Lay Melbourne Victory (in-play, 16th minute, 0-1) Risk: 9.92 (backer's stake 3.1 @ 4.2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Teo_ said: Attempt 2: let's get started! Starting bankroll: $10 Bet 1 Melbourne Victory v Wellington Phoenix: Lay Melbourne Victory (in-play, 16th minute, 0-1) Risk: 9.92 (backer's stake 3.1 @ 4.2) Well, that was fast ? Attempt 2, already over. Back to the drawing board. aldric and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, Teo_ said: Well, that was fast ? Attempt 2, already over. Back to the drawing board. Would have been fine if it was your usual goals bet. Have another shot ? Teo_ and Zico10 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Thank you, Aldric! Will certainly do, starting tomorrow, most likely. aldric and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 Attempt 2: let's get going! Starting bankroll: $10.08 (8 cents left from the 2nd attempt) Bet 1 Bali Utd Pusam v Persib Bandung: over 0.5 @ 1.08 (in-play, 16th minute) Stake: 10.08 Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Teo_ said: Attempt 2: let's get going! Starting bankroll: $10.08 (8 cents left from the 2nd attempt) Bet 1 Bali Utd Pusam v Persib Bandung: over 0.5 @ 1.08 (in-play, 16th minute) Stake: 10.08 Sorry, meant Attempt 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 Bet 2 Al Sharjah v Ajman Club: over 0.5 @ 1.05 (in-play, 5th minute) Stake: 10.84 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 3 PS TIRA v Madura Utd: Madura Utd +1.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 56th minute, 0-1) Stake: 11.34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, Teo_ said: Bet 3 PS TIRA v Madura Utd: Madura Utd +1.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 56th minute, 0-1) Stake: 11.34 Small correction: it was actually at half-time; Betfair rectified a few minutes after I had placed the bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 4 Perth Glory v Melbourne City: under 7.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 31st minute, 1-1) Stake: 11.44 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 5 Bayern Munich v Bochum: over 0.5 @ 1.03 (in-play, 15th minute) Stake: 11.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 6 Bournemouth v Newcastle: under 6.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 50th minute, 1-1) Stake: 11.87 Zico10 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 7 Real Madrid v Al-Hilal: over 3.5 @ 1.05 (in-play, 27th minute, 2-1) Stake: 11.98 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 11, 2023 Author Share Posted February 11, 2023 Bet 8 Lazio v Atalanta: under 5.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, half-time, 0-1) Stake: 12.54 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bet 9 SV Darmstadt v Braunschweig: SV Darmstadt +2.5 @ 1.02 (in-play, 51st minute, 0-1) Stake: 12.66 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bet 10 Lille v Strasbourg: Lille @ 1.02 (in-play, 58th minute, 2-0) Stake: 12.89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted February 12, 2023 Author Share Posted February 12, 2023 Bet 11 Anderlecht v Sint Truiden: under 3.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 73rd minute, 1-0) Stake: 13.13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 Attempt 4: let's get it cracking! Bet 1 Al Ahly Cairo v Al Mokawloon: under 6.5 @ 1.01 (in-play, 18th minute, 1-0) Stake: 10.00 aldric and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skittle Posted March 7, 2023 Share Posted March 7, 2023 On 2/3/2023 at 8:55 AM, Teo_ said: Appreciate the advice, but, to be honest, I don't have much knowledge on any leagues. I mainly bet on stats and some info on missing players, whenever I can find it, so it doesn't look like concentrating on certain leagues could make much of a difference in my case. It would surely be a good idea to improve my knowledge on the main leagues, at least, but this will take time and some getting used to following football news, so, for the time being, I will have to stick to stats and hope I dodge most bullets. Stats alone wouldn't do it. Sometimes you need the feeling about something...............and it has to be real, not manufactured. Teo_ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Skittle said: Stats alone wouldn't do it. Sometimes you need the feeling about something...............and it has to be real, not manufactured. Agreed. I think the "manufactured" part is the biggest issue in my case. I'll expand on this over the following days, please bear with me ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Teo_ Posted March 7, 2023 Author Share Posted March 7, 2023 Bet 2 Chelsea v Dortmund: under 5.5 @ 1.02 (in-play, half-time, 1-0) Stake: 10.09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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