Europa Conference League Predictions > Feb 16th

[StevieDay1983]

Here are the odds for the knockout round play-offs in the Europa Conference League that are set to be played in February. Eight ties to be played but which teams will go into the second legs with the advantage? Give us your predictions here! 

[Mrsha]

Anderlecht +1/4 @1.93
Min price to bet: +1/4 @1.86 or dnb @2.30
Model +value: -
Significant team news: Ludogorets have 3 important starters suspended - captain lb/cb Nedyalkov, cb Verdon and dm Piotrowski; Anderlecht are without injured lw Amuzu
Note: This pick is heavily influenced with team-news, since Ludogorets are without 3 very important starters. The absence of the trio can not be overstated - all three are guaranteed starters in important games, with 90 mins of action. Nedyalkov is their captain and regular starter for Bulgarian national team, he is a left back, but can play centre back as well, and he has played both roles in their European games this term; Verdon is a key centre back - and these two have started and played all minutes in all 14 European games that Ludogorets have played this season, 6 in UCL quals, 2 in UEL quals, and 6 in UEL group stage. Piotrowski is their regular starter in centre midfield, he arrived from Fortuna Dusseldorf in late July, so he missed Ludogorets' first 4 UCL qual.games, but has played/started in all 10 European games since then, and except for home game v HJK (when he was subbed after 85 mins, with Ludo 2-0 up), he has played all minutes in Europe. Ludogorets are one of the Eastern European powerhouses, and one of the more successful clubs from this region over the past couple of decades, but they are a bit weaker compared to period from several years ago, they could have some problems even in their domestic league (which they usually win convincingly), since CSKA Sofia are firmly in the title race; and Ludogorets are clearly weakened for this match, particularly their defensive structure. However, when it comes to this tip, it's not that straightforward, since Anderlecht are not really a side we want to trust - they have been far from impressive this season, to say the least, with very unconvincing performances, they could even miss out on UECL playoff spots in Belgium JL (5th to 8th place), which is shocking for a club of their stature. Still, they have shown some signs of improvement in recent weeks, it's not just because of fine 3-1-0 run in the league, since their schedule included 2 of the league's worst teams; but especially their general play in last round v St Truiden was v strong, it's not easy to outplay that team to the extent Anderlecht have done, and it was a well-deserved 3-1 win, with some late goals on both sides, but quite strong performance in general. Ludogorets are just back in action after a 2-month winter break, Saturday's 2-1 league win v Spartak Varna was their first official match since 4th Dec; while Anderlecht have been in full action since late Dec, and should have an advantage from that perspective. Also, recent acquisition of wng/fwd Dreyer from Midtjylland could to prove to be a major coup, so there are some more positives about Anderlecht - though, lets just say again, they are certainly not on the list of teams we are happy to back, and have usually disappointed and underperformed in their matches this season. Cold but dry in Razgrad tomorrow, we agree Ludogorets are still favorites in this first leg, albeit smaller favs than the current market prices suggest.

Lazio -1.25 @1.86
Min price to bet: -1.5 @2.00 or -1.25 @1.73
Model +value: -
Significant team news: -
Note: Both teams are struggling a bit in domestic competitions, Lazio are winless in last 4 games (3 Serie A, 1 Coppa Ita); Cluj have lost their last 2 in the league, without scoring a goal. The quality difference between these two teams is huge, Cluj would be a clear relegation candidate if they were playing in Serie A. This truly comes down to Lazio's motivation in UECL and how much will they rotate; and it looks like they are making this game a priority (they have Salernitana away this weekend), and rotations are expected mainly in central midfield, as Sergej, Luis Alberto and Cataldi, their usual starting 3 cm's, have looked quite flat in last few weeks. So, it won't even be a rotation as such, but rather a need to shake things up after a poor run of results, and when it comes to attack and defence, perhaps 1 change from best poss 11 is expected. Ok weather conditions, and considering news from Lazio camp, this is 78%+ hw for us.

[ALEXXXXXXXX]

Sporting Braga vs Fiorentina

Sporting Braga have experience of this tournament, and they are one of the most competitive teams. They are in good forms lately, with only one defeat in the last nine matches played, while their opponent, Fiorentina, have just won one but lost four in the last six. We’re going to take Braga with draw no bet in this match.

Sporting Braga +0  @1.85