spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :ok Cheers, Chala. The Hull match could be a loser, (there's nothing like positive thinking!), but I hope to show an overall profit after the weekend, and Monday's matches, have been played. The encouraging fact for using this system is the current goal average for Premier matches : 2.0, compared to previous years of 2.8, 2.9, 2.5. This may well increase through the season, but we can 'strike while the iron is hot'. I have decided to trade only in live matches for various reasons, the main ones being the advantage of watching the progress, on field events, etc., of a televised match, which gives a definite edge over watching the odds on a computer monitor, or trying to place a bet in running on the exchanges, and this system has only been tested on live games. I can see your point that you should trade or bet on any match market that you believe has 'value', but I have found that the more bets I place, the more I leave myself open to losses.:\ With live match trading I can bail out if things look to be going a*se up, the TV provides a comprehensive picture of play, whereas the computer monitor, a series of figures that are the based on the opinions of other punters. I also find that my predictive qualities, though based upon stats. logic, and unemotional assessment, (just call me 'Spock'!), are not as accurate as I would wish, and so the strategy of my Double Sell system is to trade on all TV matches. If your net is big enough, you'll catch some fish ;) The Chelsea total goals sell sounds right, but the spread has probably been set artificially low to minimise the spread firm's losses, who know that even the punters who normally buy goals will sell, based on Chelsea's strong defensive record and habit of 1-0, 2-0 results. The spread for the time of the first goal is normally set in proportion to the expected total goals spread. A high expectancy spread of 2.8 to 3.1 total goals would have a first goal spread set earlier than one where the match TG spread was set at 2.1-2.4. The average time of all first match goals scored is around 34 to 38 minutes, it varies from week to week, but averages out long term. Selling at 38 means that you are hoping for an early goal, before the 38th minute. In a match where few goals are expected to be scored, this could be risky, especially as the match goal averages are at a low 2.0, presently. However, these are just averages, a random event could cause an early goal, ...a deflection, a mis-hit shot, a goal keeper error..... Just be wary, Mr.C, I don't want to put you off, but a last minute first goal, or a 0-0 result will lose you 52 times your stake......:\ GL!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :ok Selling at 38 means that you are hoping for an early goal' date=' before the 38th minute. In a match where few goals are expected to be scored, this could be risky, especially as the match goal averages are at a low 2.0, presently.[/quote'] Few, good job you told me that spreadman. I thought selling first goal meant you wanted their to be a late goal!:wall In that case I might think about buying the time of the first goal, as I'm thinking 1-0 Chelsea with the goal coming around the 70th minute. Having said that, so far this season Chelsea have scored before half time in most games. Hmm decisions, decisons.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :D If you are trading on the Sporting Index website there should be a 'tutorial'section you can click on to explain the various bets. Alternatively, ring them on 08000 96 96 03 and their friendly ;) traders should explain things. The maxim(?) is "sell at low price, i.e. low minutes value; buy at high, i.e. high minutes value. Unless I've got it wrong................:spank :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Result of match No. 7, Hull v Luton, 0-1. A profit again, cut from a potential £42.50 in the 84th minute by a goal from Howard, who was wearing the number 19 shirt,(:\ ). Here are the numeros: Total goals sold for £5 per goal, MU=1, profit +£6.50. Total shirt numbers sold for £1 per point, MU=19, profit +£12. Match profit= +£18.50. The monitored hotshot system scored 25 points, (Howard), but as the buy spread was 29, had a paper loss of 4 points. Next system match is Aston Villa v Tottenham, Sky Prem Plus, today at 5.15p.m., spreads and trades to be posted here shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted September 17, 2005 Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Spreadman, hope your still around. Another nice winner, I'd like to close out my trades now if possible, but it says suspended. Does that mean I can only close out at Half Time (I bet with sportingindex)? It's ok spreadman, I've just closed out at half time for a £37 profit. I take it you have to use spreadfair, if you want to close at anytime? Anyway quick summary I sold total goals at 2.3 for £10, have bought at HT for 1.5 making £8. And I sold time of first goal at 41 for £1 and have bought at HT for 70 making £29. Shame that both my fixed odds bets are down at the mo.:o Anyways thanks for your help spreadman, and sorry for keep interupting your thread:spank . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Sorry, Chala, had to pop out........:\ On Sporting, the spreads can be temporarily suspended, in running when a significant event occurs, such as a penalty etc. At the end of play, after 90 mins. there is a short time when the 'suspended' sign is displayed for all, or some, of the markets. This is so the markets can be 'made up' to the correct amount. If there is a dispute or uncertainty over, say, the total number of corners or bookings, the market remains suspended, I would imagine, until the spread firms can agree, or Opta or an official body, can confirm the precise figure. Only then will the final MU's be posted on the website. Even after this, your profit or loss can be adjusted, (rarely), if you are misquoted a phone spread based upon inaccurate running spread info. If you are asking me, "can I close my trades once the match is finished?", you don't need to take any action. Sporting will calculate your profit/loss and put it on your account history, or statement, which you can access on the website, after logging on. Check your postal statement when it arrives, if you have requested this service. Mistakes can, (rarely), happen, seldom in your favour. :eek BTW, your Charlton v Chelsea 'time of first goal' buy trade would have won :D 0-0 at H/T.:ok Each minute that passes is one point more profit.........:loon Hope you made it............:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Chala, missed your edit while I was typing out my first reply...........:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :ok Well done, trading out at half time is a good idea if you feel things will change in the second half of a match. You should be able to close the trades with whoever you opened them with, over the phone or internet, but you may well find that the spreadfair spreads are narrower, and therefore, more profitable. The secret now, is to not give the money back to them after your next trade!! :rollin........feel free to interupt the thread at any time, it keeps me awake..:zzz :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Match No.8, Aston Villa v Tottenham, Sky Prem Plus, 5.15p.m., Saturday, 17th September. The stats. say 'low score', the manager's say 'plenty of goals'..... Systems 'A' and 'B' for this match, (doesn't effect the trades, system 'A' uses all matches, system 'B' uses selected matches). Last match showed a profit, so unit stake remains at 1 point, £5 per goal, £1 per shirt point. Sell total goals at 2.3 for £5 per goal, Sell total shirt numbers at 34 for £1 per point. For our paper testing hotshots system, spread is 29-32, nominated hotshots are: Baros, Phillips, Defoe, Rasiak. The premier average goal stats are currently in our favour at 2.0 goals per match.........will they stay that way?...:unsure GL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 17, 2005 Author Share Posted September 17, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Result of Match No.8, Aston Villa v Tottenham, 1-1. Another profit squeezed from a game of missed goal opportunities and rebounds. How much longer will our luck last?......:eek Now for the numbers: Total goals sold for £5 per goal, MU=2, profit=+£1.50. Total shirt numbers sold for £1 per point, MU=21, profit=+£13. Match profit=+£14.50. No hotshot scorers, so -32 points, on paper. Stake for next hotshots paper bet rises to 2 units per point. Next system match is Liverpool v Man. Utd., Sunday, 18th September, Sky Sports, 12 noon. Spreads and trades posted here in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No.9, Liverpool v Man. Utd., Sky Sports, 12 noon, Sunday, 18th September, ( programme starts at 11 a.m.). System 'A' bet only. The stats are still on our side for a 2 goals or less score line, but my records show that consecutive system wins of 4 matches or more are rare. The stake per point is still the minimum 1 unit, £5 per goal, £1 per shirt point. Here are the bets: Sell total goals at 2.3 for £5 per goal. Sell total shirt numbers at 31 for £1 per point. Hotshots, at 28-31, are: Crouch, Garcia, Van Nistleroy, Rooney. Last paper trade was a 'loser', so stake is now a hypothetical £2 per point. Next match is Blackburn v Newcastle, Sky Prem Plus, 2 p.m., this afternoon. GL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Just a quick thought....the teams have been announced on Sky, (Liverpool v Man. Utd.), and Keane appears to be playing with the usual suspects. So, consider a bookings buy, preferably in running when the spread drops below 45-48, if nobody gets an early card............:\ Even if Mr. Rooney is on his best behaviour,(:loon ), there's usually plenty of handbags in this 'local' derby. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips I'm with you on the total goals sell, and have bought time of first goal. 0-0 at Half Time please boys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Match No. 10, Blackburn v Newcastle, 3p.m. Sky. Sell total goals at 2.3, £5 per goal Sell shirt numbers at 28, £1 per point Updates later, match starting, GL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Half time in Blackburn v Newcastle match, 0-0. Taking this opportunity to close trade on system 'B'. System 'A' runs to end of match. BUY total goals at 1.4 BUY shirt numbers at 17. Profit on these trades posted later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted September 18, 2005 Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Half time in Blackburn v Newcastle match, 0-0. Taking this opportunity to close trade on system 'B'. System 'A' runs to end of match. If only I'd done this spreadman, but after closing out at HT in the Liverpool v Man Utd game, I'd thought I'd let this one ride :wall . Still a profit on the game, and a nice round £100 profit from the three games this weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :clap Well done, Chala........will post results of today's trades later, couldn't get to the computer to post the spreads for the 4p.m. k.o. match between Derby and S'pton. Obviously it has finished now, but I am not post match 'tipping', or after eventing. Regular readers of this thead will know that all matches have the same strict strategy, regardless of the teams playing, namely, to sell total goals and shirts. I will post the spreads, and then the result etc. as I would have done, if I had posted in time, before the 4 p.m. k.o. Apologies if anyone was waiting for the spreads, but, as it turned out, the match was a loss for the system bet, so hopefully I may have saved you from losing your hard earned :\ To warn you in advance, the next trading match is tomorrow, Monday 19th September, on Sky Sports at 8 p.m., Arsenal v Everton. All of today's results will be posted here later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 18, 2005 Author Share Posted September 18, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Match No. 11, Derby v Southampton, Sky Sports, 4 p.m., Sunday, 18th September. Here are the spreads, post match, for the game earlier, apologies for not being able to get to my computer. ( Couldn't untie knots in strait jacket restrainers....:loon ). Because Match No.10, Blacburn v Newcastle, showed a small loss, the unit stake is automatically increased to 2 units per point for the Derby match. Sell total goals at 2.4 for £10 per goal. Sell total shirt numbers at 36 for £2 per shirt number. Results for this and all of today's traded matches posted here, later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 19, 2005 Author Share Posted September 19, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No. 12, Arsenal v Everton, Sky Sports, 8p.m. k.o, Monday 19th September. A profit, just, over the week end. Tonight's match is system 'A' only, there could be goals, but opinions seem to be split on the forum.The last trade yesterday was a loser, so 3 units staked per point per tradeon this match. Sell total goals at 2.6 for £15 per goal. Sell total shirts at 28 for £3 per point. I fancy 10+ corners, but must stress that the stats point to a possible 2+ goals in this match, which would mean our third consecutive loss, so exercise caution. The 'A' system dictates that sell trades are made on all matches that qualify under the conditions. Just for the record,Hotshots spread is 25-28: Pires, Reyes, Bent, Cahill. +8 points for non starter. GL whatever you decide.............:ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 20, 2005 Author Share Posted September 20, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No. 13, Grimsby v Tottenham, Sky Sports, 7.30 p.m., Tuesday, 20th September. A loss last night thanks to Campbell's rare forage into goal scoring, in a number 23 shirt, of all things......... Here are tonight's trades, unit stakes increase again by one point, after the previous loss. Sell total goals at 3.0, for £20 per goal. Sell total shirt numbers at 45 for £4 per point. The spreads suggest that Sporting Index are expecting goals, particularly from Spurs. It follows that the shirt's spread will be correspondingly set high, and although there are a couple of high shirts on the field, (28, 25), a low scoring game will end our losing run. Defoe is the main worry, wearing 18. Other markets don't appeal, but bookings at 23-26 sounds low, I don't have many cards stats for Carling Cup matches, but the ref. G.Law's average is 49, Grimsby's is 24, Spurs, 26. A bookings buy at 23 could show a profit, if Grimsby don't show too much fear or respect to Spurs. Results, stats. P/L's etc. posted on Thursday. GL :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 20, 2005 Author Share Posted September 20, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Grimsby v Tottenham, 0-0 h/t, so closing System 'B' trades at half time, for profit of £104. :D System 'A' runs for 90 mins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 21, 2005 Author Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No. 13, Grimsby v Tottenham, result 1-0. We put an end to our losing run, and thanks to the staking system regain our previous losses and increase our profits. Despite a late goal by the football shirt manufacturer's nightmare, Jean-Paul Kamadimba Kanella, that took a £48 lump out of maximum profits, we still came away from the match with a useful £192. Full update of trades and P/L etc., tomorrow. Next trading match is tonight, Doncaster v Man. City, Sky Sports, 7.30 p.m.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mabell Posted September 21, 2005 Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Excellent profit last night spreadman, very impressive, well done! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted September 21, 2005 Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Yeah well done Spreadman, shame about the late goal. I don't have skysports, so will be watching the Milan v Lazio game on Bravo tonight. One bet for me here. Sell time of first goal at 36 for £1. Fingers crossed for an early goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 21, 2005 Author Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips :ok Cheers, Mabell, hope one or two PL'ers were following this thread and traded. I hope more punters will realise the benefits of spread betting over other types of betting. It takes effort and will power, but worth doing it, you just have to be determined. Chala, good luck with your trade....Italian and European football is not my area....I spend enough time absorbing the stats etc. for the EPL, though I know that this market can be very volatile, and your maximum liability is greater than the maximum profit. :unsure Tonight's trades posted here shortly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 21, 2005 Author Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No. 14, Doncaster v Man. City, Sky Sports 2, now, k.o.7.45 p.m,Wednesday, 21st September. I doubt that the result of this match will be a repeat of last's night's surprise at Grimsby. I feel that goals may be on the cards, so this match is a system 'A' one, only. There are some high shirt numbers on the field and bench...Ireland (38), 26,40,41. :\ Unit stake back down to 1 point after last night's profitable trades Sell total goals at 2.8-3.0 for £5 per goal. Sell total shirt numbers for 38-41, £1 per point. No other trades stand out. I am currently testing a system for a market called multiple injuries (:eek ), on the Sporting Index site, will keep you posted and paper trail it here, if successful. GL if trading tonight.:ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 21, 2005 Author Share Posted September 21, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No.14, Doncaster v Man. City, result 0-0. Surprisingly, a goalless match provided us with a maximum profit, for our second profitable night. Total goals profit= +£14 Total shirts profit= +£38. Total match profit= +£52. The next trade is on the Luton v Sheff. Wed. match, Sky Sports, 7.30p.m., Friday, 23rd September. Full bank, P/L update posted here tomorrow evening. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 22, 2005 Author Share Posted September 22, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips Update for SPREADMAN'S DOUBLE SYSTEM , Matches 5 to 14. No live TV matches tonight, so time to record the results so far. MATCH 5, WEST HAM v ASTON VILLA, 4-0. TOTAL GOALS=-£8, TOTAL SHIRTS=-£10, MATCH P/L= -£18. MATCH 6, PRESTON V STOKE, 0-1. GOALS=+£13, SHIRTS=+£6, MATCH P/L=+£19. MATCH 7, HULL V LUTON, 0-1. GOALS=+£6.50, SHIRTS=+£12, MATCH P/L= +£18.50. MATCH 8, ASTON VILLA V TOTTENHAM, 1-1. GOALS=+£1.50, SHIRTS=+£13, MATCH P/L= +£14.50. MATCH 9, LIVERPOOL V MAN. UTD., 0-0. GOALS=+£11.50, SHIRTS= +£31, MATCH P/L= +£42.50. MATCH 10, BLACKBURN V NEWCASTLE, 0-3. GOALS=-£3.50, SHIRTS= -£5, MATCH P/L= -£8.50. MATCH 11, DERBY V SOUTHAMPTON, 2-2. GOALS=-£16, SHIRTS= -£36, MATCH P/L= -£52. MATCH 12, ARSENAL V EVERTON, 2-0. GOALS= +£9, SHIRTS=-£54, MATCH P/L= -£45. MATCH 13, GRIMSBY V TOTTENHAM, 1-0 . GOALS= +£40, SHIRTS= +£152, MATCH P/L=+£192. MATCH 14, DONCASTERV MAN. CITY, 0-0. GOALS=+£14, SHIRTS= +£38, MATCHP/L= +£52. This gives the following stats.: ORIGINAL START BANK = +1000 POINTS. PREVIOUS POINTS BANK AFTER 4 MATCHES= +1025 POINTS. CASH BANK AFTER 4 MATCHES= +£1076. CURRENT POINTS BANK AFTER 14 MATCHES=1166.5 POINTS. CASH BANK AFTER 14 MATCHES= +£1291. NO. OF BETS/WINS/LOSSES= 14/9/5. YIELD AS % OF STARTING BANK= 29.1%. POINTS P/L= =166.5 POINTS. £ PROFIT/LOSS= +£291. :D Average win/loss per match= +£20.78. ;) Next trading match is tomorrow, Luton v Sheff. Wed, Sky Sports 7.45 p.m., Friday, 23rd September. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spreadman Posted September 23, 2005 Author Share Posted September 23, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips System Match No. 15, Luton v Sheff. Wed, Sky Sports, 7.45 p.m. Friday, 23rd September. Surely the goal shortage must end soon......but not until we have made some more cash with our double sell system, that depends on low scoring matches. In tonight's match, the stats. say under 2.5 goals, previous scores in this fixture were 1-1 and 0-0, though goal average per Championship match, so far this season, is 2.8. A few high shirt numbers in the squads....18,23,26,27,30,31,33. Potential goalscorers for Luton are Howard (19), and Feeney (10). Sell total goals at 2.4, £5 per goal. Sell shirts at 37, £1 per point. Next match is tomorrow, Birmingham v Liverpool, Sky Sports 12.45 p.m. Spreads and trades posted here in morning. Good luck :ok :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted September 23, 2005 Share Posted September 23, 2005 Re: Spreadman's Double sell System - Today's tips This is going exceptionally well mate. You can afford potential disaster scorelines over the next few games yet still be ahead! Good luck for tonight. DC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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