Racing Chat - Saturday 19th November

[The Brigadier]

A great days racing in store with the ITV cameras dispatched to Ascot and Haydock where the feature race at the latter track has attracted the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard. The star on show at Ascot is the unbeaten Constitution Hill who will be hard to beat. The ground will ride soft on both courses. Here’s my thoughts on the seven races.

 

Haydock 1.50

A disappointing turnout of only four once again for this 2m 5F 127 yard class 2 graduation chase that was won last year by the smart Bravemansgame. We’ve a short priced favourite again this year in the Paul Nicholls trained Hitman who is officially rated 10lb, 15lb and 16lb superior to his three rivals. He doesn’t have a very good win record having been placed on his six starts since his last win in a three runner Newbury novice chase at Newbury back in March of 2021 but this really is his to lose. He comes here on the back of a good second in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree and with conditions to suit is at prohibitive odds to back. Nick Kent’s stable star Erne River makes his seasonal debut and maybe the one to chase him home ahead of last years runner up Itchy Feet in the care of Olly Murphy and Donald McCain’s Minella Drama.

 

Ascot 2.05

A poor turnout of five have declared for this grade two Chantelle Pharma 1965 Chase which is likely to become three with Hitman likely to run at Haydock and Do Your Job declared to run here on Friday. That’s leaves a very short price about last year’s Cheltenham Festival winner L’Homme Presse who on official ratings has 5lb in hand of Saint Calvados who is now in the ownership of David Maxwell and trained by Paul Nicholls and 14lb in hand of Evan Williams’ Coole Cody. The favourite’s trainer Venetia Williams has now gone 33 runners and 209 days since her last winner and for anyone taking a skinny price about L’Homme Presse has to be a major issue. If forced I would play small on Saint Calvados who is chaser of ability but it would be more that I wish to take the short priced favourite on with his connections badly out of form.

 

SAINT CALVADOS 1 point win @ 17/2 BetVictor

 

 

Haydock 2.25

A decent sized field of fourteen go to post for this years renewal of the Betfair Exchange Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle run over a stamina sapping 3M 58 yds. Top weight is carried by recent easy Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar trained by master trainer Charlie Byrnes and should run well though 12 stone in very soft ground will not be easy and he’s certainly not as well handicapped over hurdles as he was on the flat and he’s overlooked. Harry Fry’s runs his smart novice Might I and he looks a definite player IF he says the three miles (he’s yet to race beyond 2M 4F)He adores the mud and bumped into the smart sorts Constitution Hill, Jonbon and Three Stripe Life last season so has to be part of my staking plan in this competitive race. Dan Skelton was talking up his mare Get A Tonic earlier in the week stating that he is ‘quite confident she will be competitive’. Sam Thomas’s Good Risk To All had Wholestone and Ailie Rose 5L behind when winning on his re-appearance at Carlisle three weeks ago and has to prove his stamina upped half a mile here. In fact the runner up Wholestone is 6lb better off for a beating of just under 5L and it wouldn’t shock me were he to turn that form around at a bumper price of 20/1+ on ground he loves. The best outsider to me is Kim Bailey’s smart chaser Imperial Echo who lost his form completely last season and reverts to hurdles here off of a handicap mark 12lb lower than his fencing one. His trainer reported that he he’s been operating on since last season when he was found to have a kissing spine. If back to somewhere near his best he’s a very big price. Wakool was mightily impressive when winning on his seasonal re-appearance at Ayr and unlike a few of these has no questions to answer regarding trip as he’s an out and out stayer and Nick Akexander’s grey should run a big race. A tough call but it’s Might I and Wakool for me each way with enhanced places.

 

MIGHT I 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5 12345

WAKOOL 1 point each way @ 10/1 William Hill 1/5 12345

 

Ascot 2.40

This five runner 2m 31/2F Coral Hurdle features the return of the most exciting horse in training in Nicky Henderson’s Constitution Hill. Unbeaten and mightily impressive in three starts in his first season hurdling, impressing with each of his wins at Sandown twice and the Supreme Novice Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival by a staggering 22L from stable mate Jonbon (impressive chase winner earlier in week). He really does look the real deal and there will be some very long faces at Seven Barrows were he not to win this. This is a step up in trip for him but that shouldn’t be an issue at all (finished runner up in a 3M point to point). He’s officially 12lb and upwards superior to his four rivals and this is a race to watch and savour with no betting interest needed.

 

Haydock 3.00

Five smart chasers have declared for today’s feature race The Betfair Chase run over 3m 1F 125 yards. Last year As Plus Tard took this race apart coming home 22L to the good from Royale Pagaille ending the season with a 15L success in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. His trainer Henry de Bromhead stated on Racing TV on Thursday that the horse is very very well and will be hard to beat. The only negative is that he’s unproven on heavy ground if the ground did go that way. Second favourite Protektorat was just under 18L behind A Plus Tard in the Gold Cup but can chase him home today having had his wind operated on since. Eldorado Allen and Frodon look out of their depth but the eleven year old Bristol De Mai has won this race three times out of the last five years and will love very deep ground. His track record at the Lancashire track reads 111121P2 and were the ground to become bottomless he’s the one who could upset the favourite. A no bet race but an intriguing one none the less with the re-appearance of the defending Cheltenham Gold Cup victor.

 

Ascot 3.15

With so many small fields and short favourites today it’s nice to have a nine runner class 2 handicap chase run over 2m 1F to get our teeth into. Top weight Edwardstone was the top two mile novice chaser last season and was pulled out at the eleventh hour at Cheltenham last Sunday because of the drying ground but there will be no issues today. This is a tougher start to the season mind for Alan King’s stable star and it won’t be easy giving weight away on soft ground to some smart handicappers. At the respective odds I’ll be looking elsewhere for some value. Dan Skelton’s Third Time Lucki is receiving 10lb from Edwardstone and on two pieces of form from last season should put him in the mix although he does have to put a poor seasonal re-appearance behind him. Thyme White had Frero Banbou and Before Midnight back in second and third respectively over course and distance three weeks ago and with the runner up now 7lb better for just under 5L and the softer ground in his favour Frero Banbou could come out the best of the trio although the stable form is of concern. Harry Fry’s Boothill is a lightly raced chaser who did it well in a four runner handicap at Newton Abbot last time and this will be tougher. The horse I like is Emmet Mullins’ bottom weight So Scottish who comes here chasing a four timer following wins at Kilbeggan, Tipperary and Carlisle with the last two successes coming in novice chases. He could be well treated and getting 26lb from Edwardstone looks the bet.

 

SO SCOTTISH 1 1/2 points each way @ 11/2 Betfred 1/5th 123

 

Haydock 3.35

We finish Haydock’s card off with a class two 3M 1 1/2F handicap chase with a dozen staying chasers lining up. The race has an open look about it with my preference being for the Richard Hobson trained Lord Du Mesnil who has fallen to a handicap mark 3lb lower then when winning the Grand National Trial here in February 2021. He ran well on his seasonal re-appearance when chasing home the well backed Le Milos at Bangor ten days ago and rides this track really well winning three of his six starts here. There is however many dangers including Nicky Richard’s Houston Texas who will love the track and is an out and out stayer who comes here chasing a four timer having risen 19lb for those victories. He may still have more to give. Fontaine Collonges is up 10lb for his victory last time out but the mare’s trainer Venetia Williams is on a long losing sequence. Musical Slave owned by JP McManus and trained by Philip Hobbs ended last season in excellent shape winning two handicaps (including over course and distance) prior to a good second to Hewick in Sandown’s bet365 Gold Cup. If ready he could run a race. With fitness guaranteed and the prospect of an uncontested lead the front running Lord Du Mesnil is the one I like each way with enhanced places.

 

LORD DU MESNIL 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5 1234

 

 

 

[black rabbit]

Fredo Banbou   3 15 Asc/       1/20th of a pt win  10/1

Might i      2 25 Asc/     1/10 th of a  pt  win       5/1

Edited November 19, 2022 by black rabbit