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NFL 2022/23 - Starts Friday 9th September


PercyP

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Is anybody out there excited by the NFL? I can't wait for the season to start. 

A winning record ATS (against the spread) in 2020/21 was negated by a loss in 2021/22.

So I looking for a successful 2022/23.

Records 

2020/21 W37 D4 L34 profit +217 points - Win record 52.1%

2021/22 W84 D1 L75 loss -141 points - Win Record 52.8%

Combined W121 D5 L109 Profit +76 points - Win Record 52.6% 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 8/22/2022 at 10:45 AM, PercyP said:

2020/21 W37 D4 L34 profit +217 points - Win record 52.1%

2021/22 W84 D1 L75 loss -141 points - Win Record 52.8%

That's a stark difference in P/L given such a similar strike rate! Did you play a lot of shorter odds selections last year? Also a lot more bets I notice (not sure if you placed less bets the previous year or just posted less). Possibly an argument for being more selective and seeing if you can weed out anything that didn't work last season that you did less of the year before, if that's possible from looking back over your records.

I've just looked back over my player data from last year. If you'd sold every player's TD minutes you'd have made a profit of 1183 points from 818 bets (1.45 points per bet). Setting a minimum sell price of 16 reduces it to 322 bets returning 930 points (2.89 points per bet). Buyers would have lost 2842 points in total and 1502 points at 16+. I suspect this is a market that would see more buyers than sellers so the price will be skewed such as it's hard to find a value buy but considerably easier to find a value sell. Blindly selling might prove profitable but you'd have to take some big losses along the way. Not an avenue I'll be exploring this year.

From a fixed odds perspective I didn't find this market as "easy" to predict as the anytime goalscorer market in "soccer". Backing at my target back odds ("true" plus edge) would have been loss making. Laying was a potentially profitable avenue but experience suggests it's a lot of hard work trying to get matched and usually not worth the effort. There was a small profit to be had by backing every odds on selection at the best available bookies price so that might be an area to focus on; seeing if you can better odds on the exchange. For my interest angle this season I may try backing a few shorties every week.

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snoopdog I Love the red zone. Sounds a great Sunday night. I look forward to hearing about your new system.


Harry_Rag I did place more bets last year (two lots of five teams ATS) to give me an interest in more games but unfortunately I never hit all five in any one bet. As my standard bet is a one point Canadian and a four point accumulator getting a five fold accumulator really boosts my profits. In 2020/21 I managed to find 5/5 hence generating a good profit.

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On 9/1/2022 at 4:37 PM, harry_rag said:

There was a small profit to be had by backing every odds on selection at the best available bookies price so that might be an area to focus on; seeing if you can better odds on the exchange. For my interest angle this season I may try backing a few shorties every week.

There were a total of 818 players I gathered data for and had you backed them all at best bookies price you'd have lost 104.77 points with an ROI of -12.8%. If you'd just backed the odds on selections it was +3.1 points from 88 bets with an ROI of 3.52%. If you extend that to every player who's TD minutes price was 20 or more it's +10.79 points from 176 bets with an ROI of 6.13%, For this season I'll just focus on those players for an interest, see if they can repeat the profitable return.

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