Racing Chat - Saturday 20th August

[The Brigadier]

York 1.50

A field of eight go to post for the 1m 177 yards group 3 Strensall Stakes with a split of four three year olds and four older horses. Favourite and for me the most likely winner is the John and Thady Gosden trained Mighty Ulysses who followed up an excellent 5th beaten under a length in the group one St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot by winning a listed contest at Newmarket’s July course from Owen Burrows Alflaila who re-opposes here on identical terms. The latter has come on from that effort to win a listed contest at Pontefract and is maybe the one to chase Frankie Dettori’s mount home. Of the older horses William Haggas’s Bashkirova has to carry a 3lb penalty with Cadillac maybe the best of the older brigade but this is all about the Gosden - Dettori runner Mighty Ulysses.

 

MIGHTY ULYSSES 2 points win @ 6/4 William Hill

 

Sandown 2.05

Eleven go to post for the one mile group 3 Atalanta Stakes for fillies and mares. Three of the twelve are three year olds and that’s where I’m looking for the winner. John and Thady Gosden saddle the likely favourite following the eleventh hour defection of the highly promising Laurel who would of been the selection here. In her absence Grande Dame who looked good winning a listed contest over course and distance 7 weeks ago holds every chance. The best of the older brigade may be Kevin Ryan’s Fonteyn who’s form ties in with Grande Dame.

 

GRANDE DAME 2 points win @ 2/1 bet365

 

York 2.25

A smaller than usual turnout for the Melrose Handicap run over the Ebor trip of 1m 5F 188 yards for three year olds only. It has a very open looks about it with several holding chances. Charlie Hill’s Inverness and William Haggas’s Soulcombe were third and fourth respectively in a decent 12F handicap at Goodwood last time where a head split the pair. The latter was a real eye catcher and I expect him to turn the tables on Inverness although why there is such a big price discrepancy between the pair is beyond me. Charlie Appleby’s top weight Wild Crusade should be suited by this longer trip and was put up 9lb for his three runner handicap victory at Ascot with the runner up winning a decent race since to boost the form. Appleby also saddles handicap debutant Al Nafir with Frankie Dettori in the saddle stepping up half a mile. Andrew Balding has won this contest the last two years and saddles Soul Stopper who’s chasing a hat trick of victories and despite a 8lb rise for his latest win at Chester is not out of this. A tough race but I’ll go for Wild Crusade each way with the extra places to give Appleby and Buick a welcome winner.

 

WILD CRUSADE 1 point each way 6/1 bet365 1/5th 1234

 

Sandown 2.40

Only seven have declared for this group 3 Solario Stakes run over 7F for two year olds. All seven have a chance of sorts with Peter Chapple-Hyams’s Defence Of Fort impressing when winning nicely on his debut at Ascot six weeks ago (2nd and 3rd beaten since though 4th won nursery here on Thursday). William Haggas’s Desert Hero also looked smart when winning at Haydock 51 days ago but that was on soft ground so he’ll be facing a totally different terrain today. I was impressed by Andrew Balding’s The Foxes when he won at Goodwood and his trainer spoke highly of him afterwards. He looks a bit overpriced. Alice Haynes’ Lady Bullet hasn’t been seen since finishing 6th in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and is yet another with a chance whilst the Godolphin runner Silver Knott looked good when landing the odds at Kempton earlier this month with his debut 4th to Chaldean when an 11/10 favourite looking even better now following that one’s win in the Acomb earlier this week. He’s the selection in a tough heat.

 

SILVER KNOTT 2 points win @ 7/2 bet365

 

York 3.00

A field of ten go to post for the group 2 City Of York Stakes run over 7F and this year has a wide open look about it. The key piece of form to look at for this race is the Lennox Stakes from Goodwood 25 days ago, Andrew Balding’s Sandrine came late to beat Kinross a neck on the line with Pogo (disappointed since) a further short head away in third and William Haggas’s Sacred a further one and a half lengths back in fifth. Sandrine is 3lb worse off with the trio that finished close up behind her that day and maybe Kinross will come out best of that group although he’s a horse that has always preferred to get his toe in so could do with some rain. Hugo Palmer’s Brad The Brief is actually the highest rated of the the ten and shouldn’t be discounted whilst it’s the David Evan’s trained Rohaan that I’ll be playing here. He’s been consistent on his last three starts in top class sprints winning the Wokingham at Ascot off of top weight for the second year in a row, a decent 4th (beaten 1 3/4L) to Minzaal in a group 3 at Newbury and an excellent running on 4th (beaten a length) in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville. The question with him is whether he will be as effective at 7F as he is at 6F but the latter contest was 6 1/2F and he was finishing strongly so I’ll take a chance that Adam Kirby can time it and he’s the selection.

 

ROHAAN 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365 1/5th 123

 

York 3.35

A maximum field of twenty two assemble for the meeting’s feature handicap - the Sky Bet Ebor which is worth a guaranteed half a million pounds. Run over just short of 1m 6F you need to be a group horse to win it. My ante post synopsis from when the weights came can be seen here -Both my selections then have made the race but unfortunately both have been given shocking draws - Get Shirty in stall 24 and Okita Soushi in stall 22. I do expect both to run well but you need everything in your favour and that won’t help although Muntahaa did win from stall 21 in 2018 so maybe not all’s lost. As you would expect many have chances and I can’t resist small each way wagers (with enhanced places) on Ian William’s Alfred Boucher who crept into the race having won comfortably here on Wednesday and if none the worse can run well under a 4lb penalty and Earl Of Tyrone for the Irish trainer Paddy Twomey who’s on a four timer and appears to have been laid out for this. Both are drawn next to each other in stalls 8 and 9. There’s plenty of others with decent chances including the William Haggas pair Candleford and Gaasse with Tom Marquand seemingly surprisingly picking the former. Irish trainers have won two of the last three renewals and the most unexposed in the field is Ger Lyons’ Licence who can also run well from a wide draw.

 

Advised ante-post :

GET SHIRTY 1 point each way @ 16/1 1/4 1/4 1234

OKITA SOUSHI 1 point each way @ 18/1 1/4 1234

 

EARL OF TYRONE 1 point each way @ 6/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

ALFRED BOUCHER 1 point each way @ 14/1 bet365 123456

 

York 4.10

A very competitive maximum field of twenty go to post for this 6F heritage handicap.

Plenty of these ran in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood three weeks ago which was won by Michael Dods’ Comanche Falls (up 6lb today) by a short head from Archie Watson’s Tabdeed (up 5lb) with the well backed Edward Bethell trained Regional (up 3lb) 1 1/2L back in third. Swedish raider Good Eye was a neck away in 4th though was beaten here earlier in the week with Tinto 5th, Summerghand (down 3lb) 9th and Mr Magyu (down 2lb) in 10th. I wouldn’t be surprised if Summerghand came out the best of those as he’s had little luck this season including when badly drawn in the Great St Wilfrid since (won his small group of 4 on the far side when all the action was on the near side). A tough handicap where I’ll take Regional and Summerghand against the field to small stakes each way with enhanced places.

 

SUMMERGHAND 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

REGIONAL 1 point each way @ 9/1 bet365 1/5th 123456

 

[black rabbit]

Benaud    3 35 Y      { put up in my  posting on 14th aug  @ 38/1]

oneforthegutter  5 20 Y    oneforthegutter   1/10 pt   ew    40/1

yimou   5 35  San      yimou       1/10 pt win   20/1

okita soushi   3 35    1/10 pt win  15/1

good birthday  3 50 san   1/10 pt win  30/1

 

 

P/L   +  149.75  pts

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by black rabbit
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