Women’s Euro 2022

[GhostLetter]

51 minutes ago, Torque said:

In regards to the first paragraph I can see what you mean but then as you said some things are related such that if one part of a prop looks value there's every chance another part is as well as a result, although I take your overall point and agree with it. From a variance perspective it would be better to take separate bets if you thought a couple of legs in a prop were worth betting on.

For the second part of what you say, again you're correct. Having said that though, props and multiples have the potential to offer exponential value if they're priced wrong which is something that can happen even if rarely. It's a door that swings both ways - negative value on each leg of a treble amplifies the negative value, but positive value on each leg amplifies the positive value, albeit at the expense of a lower probability of success.

As for your last point, I agree as I mentioned before. If it's promoted by the books then that's because they want you to bet on it and as they're not in the business of charity it's fair to say that they consider these bets to be to their advantage.

Lastly, and in response to your final remark about my competency, it's clear that you also know a thing or two about this subject and so it's interesting to read what you post. I only wish what you posted was a little more friendly. I think you'll do well to find anyone who reads what you post who wouldn't say that you come across as incredibly arrogant and patronising. There's just no need for it and it makes no sense to me.

I’m not sure how to say things differently, as it’s not my intention to come across that way! I said to both you and harry_rag that I admired your gambling knowledge, to show that it wasn’t a personal attack in any way.

There’s very little on this forum that I am knowledgeable about, but when I see someone writing something that I disagree with, especially if I know it to be mathematically impossible, then I will stand up for what I think is correct and stick to my beliefs!

[Torque]

4 minutes ago, GhostLetter said:

I’m not sure how to say things differently, as it’s not my intention to come across that way! I said to both you and harry_rag that I admired your gambling knowledge, to show that it wasn’t a personal attack in any way.

There’s very little on this forum that I am knowledgeable about, but when I see someone writing something that I disagree with, especially if I know it to be mathematically impossible, then I will stand up for what I think is correct and stick to my beliefs!

I have no issue with being challenged or even corrected, It's just the tone you take. You've suggested you don't mean anything by it which is fair enough but it doesn't alter the way it comes across.

[harry_rag]

Ok, I'm transitioning towards accepting that I'm wrong but trying to understand precisely why, leave that with me for a while!

31 minutes ago, GhostLetter said:

In your example, you said that Smith fails to score in 2 matches out of 3, (overall). There is no way that someone who fails to score in 2 out of 3 matches overall also fails to score in 2 out of 3 matches when their team wins. That doesn’t make sense. For a start, you’ve just removed all matches when the team didn’t score at all, from the equation. We are now looking at a completely different set of probabilities - those related to England wins only - and that significantly decreases the chances/increases the odds of Smith failing to score. 

To be fair, I'm not saying that. I'm describing a match where the true odds for the England win are assessed as 2/1 and the true odds for Smith to score are 2/1. That would imply England are underdogs so Smith has less chance of scoring than in an average game. I was saying that the true odds for England/Smith are 3 x 3 = 9 which would mean the true odds for England/Smith not to score would be 3 x 1.5 = 4.5. I was interested in your take of the true odds in that scenario. I guess you pretty much see it the other way round (if the true odds for England/Smith are 4.5 then the odds for England/not have to be 9)

I'm not disputing anything you're saying about the first goalscorer market by the way, I understand the different dynamic at work if we specifically say our team scores 1st. I'm just focusing entirely on the logic of the team wins/player scores market. If I wanted to take a wild stab about what might give indicative odds for your market I'd say the price for the team to score first and win multiplied by the player's price to score first for his team.

[harry_rag]

Ok, evidence is mounting that I might not be entirely correct! 

Here's Hills score/win doubles on the Germany/Spain game which is priced 15/8 and 11/8 with the draw at 21/10. Prices based on 21/10 Popp scoring with the simple multiplied double odds in brackets.

Germany 4.8 (8.97) (A bit better than but much closer to the 4.47 you'd get using the Germany +1 price)

Draw 13 (9.61)

Spain 10 (7.36)

Now I totally get the draw and Spain prices being better. If Germany score the game can no longer finish 0-0 and Spain can no longer win 1-0. Some of the the outcomes that were factored into the draw and Spain prices have become impossible. But I'm still struggling a little with the extent to which the Germany price should be less than the multiplied odds. I get that Germany scoring will alter the odds in play but Germany have to score to win so it's already factored into the price. Put it this way; the odds for Spain to win and Germany to score are bigger than the odds for Spain to win. The odds for Germany to win and Germany to score are exactly the same as the odds for Germany to win (because it is impossible for them to win but not score)

I'll be brushing up on my conditional probability.

[GhostLetter]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Ok, evidence is mounting that I might not be entirely correct! 

Here's Hills score/win doubles on the Germany/Spain game which is priced 15/8 and 11/8 with the draw at 21/10. Prices based on 21/10 Popp scoring with the simple multiplied double odds in brackets.

Germany 4.8 (8.97) (A bit better than but much closer to the 4.47 you'd get using the Germany +1 price)

Draw 13 (9.61)

Spain 10 (7.36)

Now I totally get the draw and Spain prices being better. If Germany score the game can no longer finish 0-0 and Spain can no longer win 1-0. Some of the the outcomes that were factored into the draw and Spain prices have become impossible. But I'm still struggling a little with the extent to which the Germany price should be less than the multiplied odds. I get that Germany scoring will alter the odds in play but Germany have to score to win so it's already factored into the price. Put it this way; the odds for Spain to win and Germany to score are bigger than the odds for Spain to win. The odds for Germany to win and Germany to score are exactly the same as the odds for Germany to win (because it is impossible for them to win but not score)

I'll be brushing up on my conditional probability.

I’m a bit lost as to what you’re still confused at here. I think you may be over-complicating things in your calculations.

It’s simply the odds of that player scoring, multiplied by the odds of Germany winning GIVEN THAT WE KNOW GERMANY SCORE AT LEAST ONE. Effectively, we can use the Germany (+1) odds - I think - or if you want to make it more complicated, the chances of Germany winning, out of all possible results where Germany score at least one. That should boil down to roughly the same thing, as far as I can see.

When I did the calculations on Bet365, it worked out almost spot on - player to score, multiplied by Germany (+1) odds. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[harry_rag]

I'm going to wave the white flag whilst eating humble pie. I suspect the proper calculation is indeed something closer to (if not exactly) true odds of +1 handicap x true odds of the player scoring. 365 are perhaps being ungenerous if they offer the 2 odds multiplied together (they are multiplying the edge already applied to each price) while Hills may be fairer (perhaps multiplying the true odds and just adding a margin to that).

I just put a mythical match through a spreadsheet with realistic prices. If I'd dutched all my player prices I'd have got 6/4 about a win that was only priced at 11/10!  If I did it the right way I got 1.55 for the win which is fair enough (as you could win on multiple players). 

It still feels paradoxical to me (in terms of this specific market) but it's a timely reminder that even the man popularly hailed as "the most knowledgeable gambler on this site" can lead himself up a blind alley occasionally.

Will aim to resume normal service herewith.

[harry_rag]

Holland v Sweden: Holland still expected to prevail here despite the absence of star striker Miedema due to Covid. In view of that I've had a look at the goalscoring prospects of the remaining players to see if any potential value was lurking. I've taken the following prices, all of which look decent with due regard to the player stats, most would appeal even without Miedema being absent.

Spitse to score at 9/2 Betway

Roord to score at 3/1 PP (had to take some 14/5 Betway to get desired stake on, I wouldn't go any lower)

Buy van de Donk goal rush plus at 5 with SPIN (pushed up to 7 after I placed my bet, they obviously haven't been reading this thread if they respect me that much!) 17/4 with Betway is now the clear best option

Buy Beerensteyn goal rush plus at 8 with SPIN. This is the bet that was most borderline and related to Miedema being out, hopefully she replaces her in the front 3. Equates to better than 2/1 anytime when she's less than that everywhere, pays a bonus if she scores more than once and void if she doesn't start.

(Goal Rush Plus makes up at zero if the player doesn't score, 25 if she scores once, 50 for twice and 100 for three or more. Divide 25 by the price to equate to the fixed odds price, so Beerensteyn is 25/8 = 3.125.)

 

[harry_rag]

20 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Spitse to score at 9/2 Betway - Mostly attempts from free kicks and distance. Scores a few pens though. Worth sticking with assuming the price seems to offer a similar edge. (The spread firms rated her much more highly than fixed odds.)

Roord to score at 3/1 PP (had to take some 14/5 Betway to get desired stake on, I wouldn't go any lower) - Looked the most likely scorer out of all 4, had a goal disallowed for a marginal offside that VAR took ages to call. Definitely look to back again assuming she's not priced less generously.

Buy van de Donk goal rush plus at 5 with SPIN (pushed up to 7 after I placed my bet, they obviously haven't been reading this thread if they respect me that much!) 17/4 with Betway is now the clear best option - Scored, enough for a tiny profit (was always going to be one for just better than break even, two for a decent profit). Backed her in the first game and will go again unless there's a significant reaction to her scoring reflected in the price.

Buy Beerensteyn goal rush plus at 8 with SPIN. This is the bet that was most borderline and related to Miedema being out, hopefully she replaces her in the front 3. Equates to better than 2/1 anytime when she's less than that everywhere, pays a bonus if she scores more than once and void if she doesn't start. - Poor performance from the supposed most likely scorer of the 4, showed why she's not an automatic starter. Don't back again unless the price is exceptional.

Egurrola - Scored a header and looked a threat from set pieces. This was her first start for the Dutch after switching to them from Spain, she had a brace in one of her 5 sub appearances and scored 6 goals for Spain at youth levels. Not particularly prolific in domestic games, worth considering if a particularly generous price is offered. (I wasn't expecting her to start this game but had a look when I saw she was. Can't remember the price but it wasn't huge, 9/2 maybe.

Van der Gragt - Scored the second goal and looked even more of a threat at set pieces. Wasn't even on my radar pre-game but now has 4 in 25 for Holland in 2021/2 and 5 in 36 for Ajax over the last couple of league campaigns. Again bear in mind but only at a generous price.

Headed goals - 2 more in this game. I'll be totting up but I'm pretty sure you'd be well in front on simply betting on one to be scored in every game (I'd estimate it's come in more than 50% of the time at average odds of around 8/5). I've managed to put a "fun" double on a couple of days where there was only one winner, either side of days where it landed in both!

Card watch - 6 yellows last night (and another for dissent after the final whistle). Nothing in the ref's stats to suggest it was an obvious game to bet high on but Portugal's next game worth bearing in mind given they can qualify with a win. With the right ref I'd definitely be looking for an appealing cards price.

[harry_rag]

2 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Headed goals - 2 more in this game. I'll be totting up but I'm pretty sure you'd be well in front on simply betting on one to be scored in every game (I'd estimate it's come in more than 50% of the time at average odds of around 8/5). I've managed to put a "fun" double on a couple of days where there was only one winner, either side of days where it landed in both!

16 headed goals in 14 games so far! 4 games with no header (both that involved Austria and both that involved Sweden, for whatever that may be worth). 3 out of 7 doubles would have landed but I managed to find 2 of the other 4 days!

With 50 goals scored that's 32% of all goals coming from the noggin (though evidently not the Swede)! Headed goal minutes come in at 744 so far, averaging 53.14 per game (the quote would typically be in the mid to high 20s, the buy prices being 26 and 35 today, 

Obviously too small a sample to say the true odds of a header being scored are 1.4 and that try minutes should be at least 50 to buy but suggestive of there being some value in the prices offered thus far. I'd suggest there's a degree of emphasis on set pieces in Women's Internationals that has not been adequately factored into the prices by the few bookies who are offering the relevant bets.

[harry_rag]

I've taken Hills prices for a header scored in each of today's games (as singles):

17/10 in Italy v Iceland and 27/20 in France v Belgium

I'll be taking the bet in the remainder of the group games in the absence of a shift in the prices. Fred goes just 11/10 and 10/11 for today's games. I'm not aware of any other fixed odds firms offering prices.

I'd equate buying on the spreads as getting around 6/4 and evens anytime so preference is for the fixed odds prices. If you apply the 32% of goals being headers stat to today's goal expectations you'd get 40 rather than 26 in the first game and 54 rather than 35 in the second so there may still be some mileage in buying, especially if you get more than one header in a game. (We've seen 2 "braces" and 2 "hat tricks" so far.)

[harry_rag]

Looking at the first game now and agree with the market that there's not much between the teams (and that a goalfest isn't the obvious conclusion). 1-0 either way or a 1-1 would be a reasonable call. Iceland make more appeal than Italy at the prices given how both teams performed in their opening games.

Caruso to score at 8/1 with 365 looks way too big with most firms going half that or less. I'm on for the joke amount allowed. Had pence on 1st e/w at 22/1 by way of a top up.

Quick look at the Iceland players now.

[harry_rag]

Piemonte to score 7/2 PP (just missed 4s) - looks just ok but I'm on it as a trial anytime system bet.

For an interest at either end of the pitch I've bought Vilhjalmsdottir Goal Rush Plus at 4 with SPIN (equates to 6.25). Hopefully I don't regret not sticking with Brynjarsdottir who I lost on in their opener but looking at stats, prices and line-ups I'll take a chance.

[harry_rag]

I'm anticipating France winning to nil though not the biggest shock if Belgium manage a goal. I can see a few tempting prices for Belgium players but no one stands out clearly so I'll leave that. Hopefully if they do get one it's a header!

Renard no doubt scores tonight as I've decided she's "no bet" at the prices available to me.

So it's just the small amount I'm allowed on Geyoro at 13/5 365 (and a side order of 1st e/w at 10/1).

[harry_rag]

Unibet offering 19/5 for method of next goal to be a header (no bet if no more goals). That puts it at around a 21% chance.

Probably a bit too big given what we’re seeing in this tournament and from France in this game. I’ve had a small bet.

[harry_rag]

15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Unibet offering 19/5 for method of next goal to be a header (no bet if no more goals). That puts it at around a 21% chance.

Probably a bit too big given what we’re seeing in this tournament and from France in this game. I’ve had a small bet.

Shame I didn't press as the third goal was a header and the same odds were offered! Be keeping an eye on the market later as I think it may offer similar or better value to the pre-game header odds.

A decent day with Vilhjalmsdottir scoring and the header in the 2nd game, profit very much enhanced by the limited stakes allowed on a few of the losing bets.

Gone again with the pre-game header prices, 10/11 in the England game and 6/4 in the other. 10/11 obviously short but there's a very high goals expectation for this game.

[harry_rag]

Any particular views on how the England game plays out? It looks like there won’t be too many changes to the starting line up based on the manager’s history and what she’s said, so a strong starting line up with earlier than usual subs perhaps.

My take would be that England justify the extent of their favouritism and score plenty of goals but that’s not exactly taking a contrarian view to the market!

I’ve taken the modest stake allowed on >5.5 away goals (yes, England are technically the away team) at 4/1 with PP, a standout price that might not last.

I also like 9/4 for 1st half to be highest scoring half in terms of how I see the game unfolding (strong starting 11 blows NI away before multiple changes and the pace eases off) but looking at England’s recent games where scoring 5 or more there’s no support. It happened against Norway but not in any of the 8 previous instances nor in 3 recent games against NI. Whether the different dynamics of tournament football compared to qualifying or friendlies is enough to ignore that I’m not sure.

[harry_rag]

5 hours ago, harry_rag said:

I’ve taken the modest stake allowed on >5.5 away goals (yes, England are technically the away team) at 4/1 with PP, a standout price that might not last.

Cut to 11/4. Saved me having to venture into one of their shops to see if I could get a bit more on! 

Line ups just coming through now so will look for any standout scorer bets. As I've said I'm expecting England to win and manage at least 5 (hopefully 6) goals; still yet to pull the trigger on the 1st half most goals bet.

Norway have been unimpressive so I can see Austria getting the draw they need to qualify but no bet on the outcome of that game.

[Labrador]

There has been a lot of hype about Ellen White being on the cusp of becoming England's all time leading goalscorer - by getting ahead of Wayne Rooney. She needs 1 goal to equal Rooney's 53 goals. It's possible there will be every effort from her team mates for White to score twice and then be subbed to preserve her for the harder games ahead. I was about to press the button on White to score a brace at 9/4 with skybet when they cut to 13/8. I saw 7/4 with Coral (Bet 365 only 4/5). I hate missing out on a price so am swerving now.

I can see the Northern Ireland defence conceding a penalty or two (especially with Esther Straubli with the whistle) so have backed Georgia Stanway to score at 5/4 and also to score a brace at 7/1 (skybet). Stanway scored twice in England's recent 5-0 beating of NI and neither were penalties.

I also expect Lucy Bronze to be advanced for much of the game and reckon 4/1 for her to score is a bit of value.

Given the identity of the referee and NI inevitably having minimal possession and making some tired challenges, I have bought NI bookings at 13 (SX) and their multi bookings at 43 (SX).

[Will actually be watching the rugby league so will check losses? on the women's footie afterwards].

[harry_rag]

I've taken >2.5 cards in the England game at 14/5 with Uni. It's a low bookings quote given the general dead rubber and one way traffic take on the game but, with Staubli back in the middle, the price is big enough for me to take a chance.

I've seen 11/2 for Smith to score a header which may be ok but I'll stick with the straight headed goal bet.

Still milling over the highest scoring half bet.

[harry_rag]

7 minutes ago, Labrador said:

I was about to press the button on White to score a brace at 9/4 with skybet when they cut to 13/8. I saw 7/4 with Coral (Bet 365 only 4/5). I hate missing out on a price so am swerving now.

3.75 on the exchange (1st game they've priced the scorer markets up for).

[Labrador]

Never bothered to look on the Exchange - Stanway and Bronze better prices there? .

 

 

[harry_rag]

I concur with the notion of the Smith brace being decent at 5/2 so have had a small bet, and have decided to have the courage of my convictions on the 23/10 1st half to be highest scoring.

2 scorers in the other game, players who have been on my radar previously and appeal at tonight's prices. Dunst at 9/2 and Reiten at 16/5.

[harry_rag]

22 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Gone again with the pre-game header prices, 10/11 in the England game and 6/4 in the other. 10/11 obviously short but there's a very high goals expectation for this game.

Should have stuck with those bets as all my subsequent bets lost for a small loss on the day. Have gone again at 6/5 in the Germany game and 29/20 in the Spain game. With headed goal minutes quotes in the low 40s and low 30s respectively the prices still look generous and I see no reason to review the approach until we reach the knockout games (unless the prices collapse).

[harry_rag]

20 headers in 18 games now, representing 32.79% of the total 61 goals. Headers in 13 of the games, or 72.2%

If we assume average odds of 6/4 that would represent an ROI of 80.56%. 62.5% with an excessively cautious average odds of 5/4.

Looking at last night's games there was the default offering in running of 19/5 for the next goal to be a header (no next goal = no bet). Obviously a value proposition thus far as the price assumes a 20.8% chance of the next goal being a penalty. You'd have done ok waiting for every game to go in play and then betting on 1st goal being a header and, after a goal is scored, the next goal to be a header (ROI 57.4%).

I'd say the optimum strategy would be take the pre-game "header scored" bet and, if a header is scored, bet on any subsequent goals being a header. The ROI is similar at around 60% but you don't have to place as many bets! I'll try that for the remaining group games.

 

[harry_rag]

Thoughts on the Finland v Germany game are it's pretty much a dead rubber (group winners playing a team who can't qualify) and not much of a betting heat. Germany will probably do what the market expects and win by around 3 goals. Finland probably won't score but may nick a consolation. I'll probably keep an eye open for a standout goalscorer bet but, other than that, just play the headed goal angle.

As for Spain v Denmark we have a more competitive game. Underwhelming so far, Spain need a draw to qualify while Denmark need to win. This may well be the game where Spain play like pre-tournament favourites but, at the prices, I wouldn't bet on it. I'm seeing if I can get matched on Denmark +1 at 3.

I could make a case for a lot of corners with one team potentially chasing a goal at any time. Spain got 17 against Finland and Denmark conceded 11 against Germany. Cross corners at 22 perhaps the most appealing option (e.g. 8 for Spain x 5 for Denmark would = 40). Spain could well get the 8+ required to cover their corners spared price of 62 but there's the risk of them taking the lead and then defending it.

[harry_rag]

Bought 3 Danish players in the Goal Rush Plus market (void if not starting) all at 4 which equates to 6.25 anytime; Bruun, Harder and Nadim. Just better than double your money if they muster a single goal between them.

Also going against the grain with a "positive" assist bet. Svava at 19/1 PP and bought her assist minutes at 4 with SPIN. She has 17 in 19 Euro and World Cup qualifying games which puts her on a par with their most likely scorers in terms of strike rate but she's not priced accordingly.

That's me done pending any line-up inspired bets.

[harry_rag]

1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

Bought 3 Danish players in the Goal Rush Plus market (void if not starting) all at 4 which equates to 6.25 anytime; Bruun, Harder and Nadim. Just better than double your money if they muster a single goal between them.

Also going against the grain with a "positive" assist bet. Svava at 19/1 PP and bought her assist minutes at 4 with SPIN. She has 17 in 19 Euro and World Cup qualifying games which puts her on a par with their most likely scorers in terms of strike rate but she's not priced accordingly.

That's me done pending any line-up inspired bets.

Only Harder starts out of the 4 players, everything else void except (potentially) the 53p I was allowed on the assist bet by Paddy!

Having seen the line-ups I've bought Madsen at 3 and Bonmati at 7 in the Goal Rush Plus market.

Nothing further in the other game.

[harry_rag]

Re the corners in Spain/Denmark I wasn't going to bother but 11/2 for each team to have 2+ corners in each half with Sky Bet caught my eye so I've taken that. All done now.

[harry_rag]

Headers in both games yesterday (the first two Germany goals and the Spain goal).

Had already taken 6/4 for each of today’s games and the prices are unchanged. Have taken 11/8 for the France game and 13/8 for the Italy game so that takes me to the end of the group games.

Was able to back the 2nd goal in the Germany game to be a header at 19/5 but the price was cut to 14/5 for the subsequent goals. The price remained at 19/5 in the Spain game up to when the goal was scored and it was too late for the market to be put back up after the goal. Will see what happens today.

[harry_rag]

3 Dutch players at prices that appeal, all with Sky Bet. 11/4 Roord, 10/3 Van de Donk and 9/2 Spitse.