Racing Chat - Saturday 4th June (Derby Day)

[The Brigadier]

Epsom 2.00

Epsom’s Derby day starts with a class 2 10F handicap with fifteen 3 year olds going to post. The race has a wide open look about it with Godolphin’s Blue Trail amongst the favourites. A good third in the Esher Cup last time he steps up a couple of furlongs which should suit and should be thereabouts today. There’s several others with claims none more so than the Richard Spencer trained Mr Big Stuff who was denied a run on a couple of occasions in the London Cup at Newbury last time and is the bet here under 5lb claimer Tyler Heard. The only negative is his wide drawn in stall 13 (of 15) which isn’t ideal on this turning track but he can overcome that and looks the one to be with today although I can’t resist a small saver on Hugo Palmer’s Norton Cross who comes here as a lightly raced improver with a mark of 80 which looks workable.

 

MR BIG STUFF 1 point each way @ 5/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

NOLTON CROSS 1/2 point each way @ 9/1 Paddy Power 1/5th 1234

 

Epsom 2.35

A good sized field of ten fillies and mares assemble for the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes run over 1m 113 yards. Cheveley Park set a poser saddling William Haggas’s Bashkirova and Sir Michael Stoute’s Potapova who both have solid chances on their best efforts. Bashkirova may have just needed her re-appearance run when failing to catch Mrs Fitzherbert going down by half a length. Hughie Morrison’s four year old re-opposes and I can’t really understand why there’s such a discrepancy between the pair in the betting with the latter over twice the price. Potapova went down by a head on her re-appearance on the all weather at Kempton to Roman Mist who re-opposes here. That form has been boosted twice since by the victories of the 3rd and 4th and both have claims. Three 3 year olds take on their elders in receipt of 12lb with Andrew Balding’s Majestic Glory the best of the trio. A tight contest but at the prices I’m happy to stick with Mrs Fitzherbert who has the beating of Bashkirova and is significantly bigger in the betting.

 

MRS FIZHERBERT 1 point each way @ 6/1 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

Epsom 3.10

A small but select field of six go post for the 1m 113 yards group 3 Diomed Stakes and can go to the upwardly mobile Modern News for the boys in blue. Charlie Appleby is actually double represented here with Zakouski and Modern News with William Buick having chosen Modern News. He’s looked a progressive four year old winning the Spring Cup Handicap at Newbury and a listed contest at Windsor this spring with a step up to this class looking well within his compass. The Gosden’s Megallan has been a bit disappointing this season so far and the biggest threat to the selection may well be the Charlie Hills trained Mutasaabeq, a smart sort himself who just went down to Lights On in a group 2 last time when not getting the best of runs.

 

MODERN NEWS 2 points win @ 11/10 bet365

 

Epsom 3.45

The 5F ‘Dash’ Handicap is a real spectacle run over the worlds fastest sprint track. Plenty have chances including Scott Dixon’s Fine Wine who looked an improved horse when winning at York last time (runner up won a group race since) but has been put up 9lb for the win. Live In The Dream is trained locally by Adam West and is chasing a hat trick following success’s at Sandown and Chester. He too has been raised 7lb for his latest win and the pair I like are last year’s winner and third Mokaatil and Stone Of Destiny. The latter had a dreadful ride throughout the race but when he got some clear space ran on to be beaten 1 3/4L but is now 15lb better off. The problem with Stone Of Destiny is that he hasn’t won since the Portland Handicap in September 2020 some 14 races ago but if he gets the splits at the right time he’s without doubt a well handicapped horse. Stall 18 will have him trapped away on the rail whilst Mokaatil has options from stall 9. He’s won three of his four starts at this specialist track and is also worth backing to small each way stakes with enhanced places.

 

STONE OF DESTINY 1 1/2 points each way @ 9/1 BetVictor 1/5th 12345

MOKAATIL 1 point each way @ 10/1 bet365 1/5th 12345

 

Epsom 4.30

This year’s Derby is run in memory of the great Lester Piggott, a nine time winner of this race who sadly passed last weekend. A bumper field of 17 go to post for the 12F contest and we have a solid enough favourite in the Sir Michael Stoute trained Desert Crown who’s unbeaten and looked good when winning the Dante at York when apparently only 80% fit. Stall 12 looks fine and he is the one they all have to beat. Aiden O’Brien has won six of the last ten runnings and saddles three runners in Stone Age, an impressive winner of the Leopardstown Derby Trial and he looks the best of the three to my eyes. Changingoftheguard sports first time cheek pieces having won the Chester Vase last time though isn’t helped by a stall position of 16. Chester winner Star Of India looks the weakest of the trio. Charlie Appleby saddles three also with stable number one William Buick choosing the supplemented Nations Pride with James Doyle on Walk On Star and Adam Kirby, who won the race last year for the connections with Adayar, on Nahanni. Donnacha O’Brien sends over Piz Badile with a chance. It’s a tough race with the most likely winner being favourite Desert Crown but with the last five winners being priced 40/1, 16/1, 13/2, 25/1 and 16/1 it may pay to back a couple each way at big prices especially as many firms are paying an extra place. Royal Patronage is a horse who should relish the step upto 12F and although he has a bit to find with the favourite on the Dante form can out run his odds despite a poor draw in 1 and I’ll play small ew him and also small ew on Walk On Stars who has a bit of a ‘Adayar’ feel about him having finished runner up in the Lingfield Derby trial last time out.

 

ROYAL PATRONAGE 1/2 point each way @ 33/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

WALK ON STARS 1/2 point each way @ 18/1 William Hill 1/5th 1234

 

[richard-westwood]

2.00 Epsom 

Mr Big stuff   8.8 9/2 

Taj aloha  8.6  16/1 

2x 5pt ew