OVER 0.5 @ 1.17 minimum

[FixedOdds]

Hi,

Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+.

What do you think?

Market	Time	Odds	Max	Notes
Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	10/04/2022 13:00	1.21	1.35
Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	10/04/2022 23:55	1.23
Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	12/04/2022 19:00	1.17	1.18
Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	12/04/2022 18:45	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 12:01	1.17
A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 11:59	1.24
Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 11:58	1.27	2.26
Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	13/04/2022 13:02	1.20	1.33
Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 11:30	1.24
Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 13:00	1.20
Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 13:30	1.20
Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 14:00	1.16
Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 16:30	1.44
Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 16:32	1.20
Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	16/04/2022 18:48	1.44
ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 13:00	1.44
Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 13:00	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	17/04/2022 15:31	1.24
Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 11:31	1.24
Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:01	1.44
Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:00	1.44
QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 14:00	1.29
Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	18/04/2022 19:32	0.00		I lost, don't have odds
Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	19/04/2022 19:01	1.64
Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	20/04/2022 19:00	1.17
Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	20/04/2022 22:02	1.24
Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	21/04/2022 17:02	1.24	1.35
Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals	21/04/2022 19:16	1.32

Edited April 22, 2022 by FixedOdds
spelling mistake

[harry_rag]

48 minutes ago, FixedOdds said:

You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored.

Well, they would have been fantastic odds if you’d got them pre-game but whether they are good, bad or fair odds at the point you were matched is a different matter! I’m guessing the percentage of games that are goalless after 20 minutes and end up >0.5 will be lower than the 92% for all games.

My gut feel is that this will make a slight loss in the long term if you build up a meaningful sample size. I just can’t see any reason why the odds you get would represent value at the point where that’s what the market is happy to offer you. More like fair at best less commission.

For this to be profitable, the market would have to be inefficient in that the odds for >0.5 were drifting more quickly than they should and thus offering value. I’d be surprised if that was the case.

See how it goes over 1000+ bets!