FixedOdds

Genoa has come good, if Lazio and Barca get matched I might just about break even. Any more loses or unmatched bets and it's been a bit of a stinker. Early days!

So here's the weekend so far...Saturday not good, Sunday so far so good.

I've just started recording the Brentford v Tot game (2nd half) and it's reached 1.29.

Thanks @harry_rag I can say quite confidently that taking SPs is a losing strategy. I've analysed a fair amount of data over the years in Excel and found long winning streaks - I had one last year of 42 bets that I actually placed - but the few inevitable losses are a killer. Yes, the evens experiment would be interesting and finding the optimum price. I've got 1.17 on Brentford v Tot.....just need a goal now.

Just checked Inter v Roma, it got to 1.14 so I missed out. The sp was 1.05 so a good bet for somebody.

Oh, sorry I didn't realise. Noted. Lost on Leicester v Villa. Got these lined up if they match. PSG v Lens St Et. v Monaco Barca v Rayo Brentford v Tot

I haven't recorded it. Sorry! I'm recording Inter v Roma (kick off in 20mins). SP 1.05, I'm hanging on for 1.17.

I'm matched on Leic. v Villa @ 1.17 and won on Leipzig v Berlin @ 1.25.

Valid point. I just missed out on Norwich v Newcastle. It went to 1.23 after 33mins before the first goal scored. I should have taken more heed of Newcastle's form!

Yes, this might have to go very deep before 1.17 is reached. You've been unlucky I think, you were very close to getting matched but you didn't lose I'm recording Norwich v Newcastle atm. I've gone for 1.25 since the sp was 1.09 and although Newcastle are the in-form team, I'm not convinced by either. Moving up slowly...

Hi @Torque @harry_rag I don’t disagree. What I’m thinking is… Man City v Watford right now is 1.02 (as you’d expect). If City don’t get their goal until nearer the market avg (which is 50mins), then this will be a winner. The odds of 1.02 are saying that there has to be goals in this game. I’m saying that knowing 92% of matches have a goal then there’s a good chance of a favorable result. I might get 1.17 which doesn’t change the fact that the consensus was this is a 1.02 market. Of course the longer the game goes on the less chance for a goal, but I know with good confidence that 92% of games a goal is scored i.e. it’s with hanging on in. There are so many late goals too these days. The proof will be the 1000 games. I’ll keep posting results until I’m broke!

Just some more info I have. Most goals are scored in the first and last 5mins of each half and these stats show the avg goal time at approx. 50min. This still means 92% hit rate. You see where I’m coming from? I’m just trying to convince myself really! ?

Sure, I understand what you’re saying. I’m not going to hit the 92% hit rate but I’m hoping it won’t drop that much hence the good odds which I’m getting will cover this drop. Predicting a nil-nil consistently I think has been well and truly proven impossible. I rather hoping that the randomness (law of averages, sort of) will ensure over the long term a consistent hit rate. And yes, it’s all down to the time of the first goal. Maybe I should study that aspect a bit further.

Hi, Some recent activity on this bet that I'm doing. Where I recorded the market I have added a Max odds, this is saying what the market went to before a goal was scored. You can see that there are quite a few matches over 1.2 which is fantastic odds for over 0.5 considering 92+% of matches in these leagues end with at least a goal scored. There's some Greek games that I don't normally do and some MLS. I try to stick to major European leagues (that support the 92+% stat) but sometimes I can't help myself! I think of this as a steady drip. I make no judgement about games to pick I just put down a minimum of 1.17 and more where I see fit. I generally decide based on sp odds. As long as a game is under 1.09 I'll probably place @ 1.17, over 1.09 I either dbl the odds, e.g. 1.1 becomes 1.2 or I'll decide it's too risky and I want a lot more 1.4+. What do you think? Market Time Odds Max Notes Brentford v West Ham : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 13:00 1.21 1.35 Austin FC v Minnesota Utd : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 10/04/2022 23:55 1.23 Bayern Munich v Villarreal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 19:00 1.17 1.18 Burton Albion v Wigan : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 12/04/2022 18:45 0.00 I lost, don't have odds Pierikos v Veroia : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 12:01 1.17 A.E. Karaiskakis v Egaleo : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:59 1.24 Kifisias FC v Episkopi FC : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 11:58 1.27 2.26 Diagoras v Zakynthos : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 13/04/2022 13:02 1.20 1.33 Tottenham v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 11:30 1.24 Altay v Basaksehir : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:00 1.20 Augsburg v Hertha Berlin : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 13:30 1.20 Southampton v Arsenal : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 14:00 1.16 Valencia v Osasuna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:30 1.44 Juventus v Bologna : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 16:32 1.20 Lazio v Torino : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 16/04/2022 18:48 1.44 ESTAC Troyes v Strasbourg : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 1.44 Montpellier v Reims : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 13:00 0.00 I lost, don't have odds Chelsea v Crystal Palace : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 17/04/2022 15:31 1.24 Middlesbrough v Huddersfield : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 11:31 1.24 Millwall v Hull : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:01 1.44 Cardiff v Luton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.44 QPR v Derby : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 14:00 1.29 Estoril Praia v Braga : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 18/04/2022 19:32 0.00 I lost, don't have odds Betis v Elche : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 19/04/2022 19:01 1.64 Man City v Brighton : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 19:00 1.17 Talleres v River Plate : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 20/04/2022 22:02 1.24 Espanyol v Rayo Vallecano : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 17:02 1.24 1.35 Porto v Sporting Lisbon : Over/Under 0.5 Goals 21/04/2022 19:16 1.32

http://bfdata.football is quite interesting. Records betfair matches which you can download.

Hi, new on here but a long time punter on footy. As I'm sure you are aware, goals are scored in approx. 92+% of matches, thus if you are placing bets on this market (over 0.5) you're winning most of the time. However, the odds are [email protected] probably on avg. You might break even in any given season or win/lose a small bit depending on staking plan. To get 1.17 you are obviously placing bets that will remain open once the market kicks off. The majority of bets will not be matched but some always do. I don't try and predict this outcome because when analysing historic data in Excel I really couldn't find any pattern. I arrived at 1.17 minimum after crunching the numbers with the caveat that if the sp is 1.09 or above, then I'm looking for 1.25+. An sp of 1.09+ is very high for the 0.5 market. I don't know anyone who likes a bet, but it's a reasonably big part of my life - in the sense that I think about it quite a lot. I don't bet to make money, I just like doing it and treat sort of like an intellectual challenge...kind of hence I decided to post this. It's April 22 and I have averaged a ROI of approx. 12% every week (that I've bet) this year. It's working incredibly well this year, it's not always been like this. My theory on that is that VAR and the ludicrous "contact" laws in the game now are producing so many goals. The DapperNapper