Racing Chat - Thursday 31st March

[Darran]

Some of you might remember that I have a share in a filly in Australia and she has the first start of her 2nd prep on Thursday morning at Kyneton (R3 4.30am). I think she has a decent chance at a double figure price and here are my thoughts on the leading contenders.

Belle Et Riche - 3^rd on debut at Moe last August wasn't a bad race with the winner winning at Moonee Valley since and the 4^th won on its next start. That was on a Heavy 9 but seems to handle quicker ground based on her jump outs.

 

Kashmere Star - Good 3^rd on debut at Mornington in November behind an impressive winner who had been running in Group races. 

 

Let Fly - Was 2^nd on her debut last April, but then not so good in her next two starts. Returned this prep with a fast finishing 2^nd over course and distance 2 weeks ago. If she can repeat that effort then has a big chance here.

 

Whywhywhydeliah - Was sent off fav on debut, but was disappointing. Stepped up on that on her 2^nd start when 3^rd 3 weeks later. 

 

Beneficio - She has progressed well since her last prep and was impressive when winning a jumpout recently. Usually she would have had a trial after that, but she's in such good form that the trainer has decided to send her straight to a race instead. The downside is she has drawn the outside stall, but she has so much speed from the gates that I think she will be able to track across without using too much energy up. The only other speed in the race from what I can see will come from Excela Bella who is actually drawn inside her so they might be able to come over together. She was a bit disappointing at Ballarat on the final start of her first prep, but she didn't seem to let herself down on the ground that day and the close 2^nd over course and distance was a top class effort. On that effort she has a great e/w chance here.

 

Verdict - I think the winner will come from the above 5 and I do think Beneficio is over priced at 10/1. The question will be if she can hold off the finishers in the final furlong, but at the very least I think she can finish in the first 3. I can see why Belle Et Riche is favourite, but I think Let Fly is the one who can take this out. He has the benefit from a recent race and clearly course and distance suits well based on that 2^nd a couple of weeks ago. Obviously I hope Beneficio will be able to hold on, but if Let Fly repeats her finishing effort from a couple of weeks ago then she might just lose her maiden tag.

 

Let Fly @ 11/4 with Paddy Power, William Hill, Betfair and Coral

Beneficio e/w @ 10/1 with everyone apart from William Hill

[EviL ZippY]

BOOM son! 
i got 11/1 at Lads with the boost button, cracking win, real pleased for you ?