Racing Chat -Sunday 23rd January

[The Brigadier]

Heavy ground is likely for Day three of Lingfield’s Winter Millions meeting and heres mt thoughts on the five ITV races plus a brace from Thurles.

 

Lingfield 1.20

A £30k guaranteed 2m 7F novices’ hurdle with the stand out competitors the front two in the market in Dan Skelton’s Ballygrifincottage and Irish raider Fameaftertheglory trained by Gavin Cromwell. Preference is for the former who was a decent performer between the flags in Ireland winning three times. He showed plenty of promise on his hurdling debut for the Skelton’s when third to Blazing Khal, who was ante post favourite for the Albert Bartlett until his unfortunate injury on Friday, at Cheltenham in December and has a major chance today. 

BALLYGRIFINCOTTAGE 2 points win @ 2/1 Boylesports

 

Lingfield 1.50

Only five go to post for this two mile class 2 novice chase with all bar total rag Richdish holding a chance. There’s only 5lb between the main quartet and it maybe worth giving Paul Nicholl’s Il Ridoto one more chance. he was as easy a winner of a handicap as I’ve seen all season at Newbury in November and was thrown into the deep end the following weekend when bombing out at at Sandown in grade one company when well backed, maybe that came too soon after his easy win seven day previous and is worth another chance to prove his ability today. Faivoir, War Lord and Shakem UpArry all have chances and will no doubt will have their supporters. 

IL RIDOTO 1 point win @ 3/1 William Hill

 

Lingfield 2.25

A small turnout of only three go to post for this £100k guaranteed hurdle run over 2m 3 1/2F with the late defections of Lucky Max and Miranda. Brewin’upastorm and Darver Star are the two to concentrate on here and with just 4lb officially between them (in favour of the former) can fight out the finish. Preference is for Olly Murphy’s 9 year old Brewin’upastorm who impressed at Aintree on his re-appearance and was coming to win his race I felt when crashing out at the last in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Years Day. Goshen is the third member of the field but although the ground will suit is out of sorts. 

BREWIN’UPASTORM 1 point win @ 6/4 Bet365

 

Thurles 2.40

Seven Irish novices go to post for this 2m 4 1/2F grade 2 mares only novices chase. A stand out bet for me is the Henry De Bromhead trained Minella Melody who makes her chasing debut today. Her hurdle form which included runner up efforts in grade 2 and grade 1 company is far superior to anything her rivals have achieved and if she can jump can take care of her six rivals the best of which may well be Jeremys Flame a winner at Naas at the beginning of the month. 

MINELLA MELODY 2 points win 11/4 Bet365

 

Lingfield 3.00

The inaugural running of the Fleur De Lys Chase, a class 2 chase run over 2m 6F with a guaranteed purse of £150k. If Fanion D’Estruval was re-routed here from Ascot on Saturday he would be the one to be with but in his absence it may fall to Dashel Drasher who certainly comes here in better form having won over hurdles last time out than main rival Bristol De Mai who’s pulled up on his last two racecourse appearances. Both will love the testing conditions. 

DASHEL DRASHER 1 POINT WIN @ 11/4

 

Thurles 3.15

Only four assemble for the 2m 4 1/2F Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase which sees the smart Allaho bidding to follow up last years success in the race. He went on from there to win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and he’s already a warm favourite to strike in that contest again. He should have a straight forward enough task here although second favourite Fakir D’oudairies is no mug himself but is rated 9lb inferior. A no bet race for me but I do expect them to come home in betting order.

 

Lingfield 3.35

Easily the most competitive race on the Lingfield card is the fifteen runner Surrey National run over 3m 5F which on heavy ground will take some getting. Local trainer Chris Gordon’s Go Whatever landed a gamble in decent style in similar conditions at Plumpton in the Sussex National at the beginning of the month and although he’s been raised 7lb should run well here and is the selection. There’s plenty of others with chances including Little Red Lion from the David Pipe team who must be better than his last run and can outrun his big odds. 

GO WHATEVER 1 point each way @ 9/2 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

[Zilzalian]

Intriguing race on the all weather 12:50  NHFlat race tomorrow. Estacas takes on Hughie Morrisons Our Jester Jt favs at 9/4 as we speak. i really think this Estacas is something special out of Galileo and a German dam trained by the excellent Andreas Wohler if it wins i think the 20/1 for the champion bumper will soon evaporate.