Racing Chat - Saturday 18th December

[The Brigadier]

The ITV cameras are at Ascot and Haydock for six races on Saturday with the normal testing ground at Haydock and drying dead ground at Ascot (officially good to soft). Here’s my thoughts on those six races :-

 

Ascot 1.50

Eleven go to post for this 2m 3F handicap chase which has a very open look about it. Likely favourite is the Jonjo O’Neill trained Palmers Hill who is owned by legendary owner JP McManus. He impressed on only his second chase start when winning at Wetherby last month and has to race here off of only a 4lb higher handicap mark. Plenty of others appeal including Guy who is 3lb higher than his good 2nd place to Pink Legend here last month. Kerry Lee saddles an interesting runner in Financier but he has a 280 day absence to overcome. Dan Skelton saddles his 8 year old Knight In Dubai and he might worth a small each way bet. He showed promise on his re-appearance at Aintree last month when 5th under David England and has been dropped a couple of pounds for that effort. The trainers brother and stable jockey Harry takes over now and a bold bid looks likely. 

KNIGHT IN DUBAI 1 point each way @ 11/2 1/5^th 1234 William Hill

 

Haydock 2.05

A 9 runner handicap hurdle run over 2m 3F where four of the runners come here on the back of a significant lay off making the race rather tricky. Philip Hobbs’ Stellar Magic is arguably the most interesting having won two novice hurdles in good style last season before flopping when favourite at Warwick in February. Not seen since and in a handicap for the first time he could run well. Olly Murphy is having a great season and his Mackelduff brings the best recent form to the table here having followed up a brace of wins with a good third at Cheltenham behind Gowel Road. He too can be competitive. It’s a race without market clues to play to small stakes in my opinion and I’ll back Mackelduff who will be ridden by David England today. 

MACKELDUFF 1 point win @ 5/2 Bet365

 

Ascot 2.25

A strong field of eight assemble for the grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle over 3m 97 yds which unfortunately doesn’t feature the ante post favourite Buzz who fractured his pelvis on the gallops on Friday morning. Nicky Henderson does however saddle two in On The Blind Side and Champ who’s reverting to hurdles following his stint over fences and could be a player here.Emma Lavelle’s Paisley Park has won this race for the last two years but doesn’t appear to be the same horse this season. Thyme Hill is a strong stayer trained by Philip Hobbs who went off favourite for the Stayers Hurdle last season when finishing third he has to put a disappointing effort behind him in France last month. Hobbs horses aren’t really flying either with just 2 winners from his last 50 runners but is the one to beat. The Irish raider Ronald Pump also comes into the reckoning and in a trappy looking affair it maybe Champ who can bounce back to form over hurdles. 

CHAMP 1 point win @ 6/1 Bet365 

 

Haydock 2.40

A bumper field of 16 have declared for this year’s renewal of the 3m 1 1/2F Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase to be run on heavy ground. The favourite Remastered looks a decent bet here having been tanking along when crashing out four from home in the Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury three weeks ago. He can race off of the same handicap mark and with Tom Scudamore taking over from 3lb conditional jockey Fergus Gillard looks sure to be involved as long as the fall hasn’t left him with any mental scars. Sam’s Adventure won this two years ago whilst Potters Legend was runner up 12 months ago and whilst there are plenty of others with each way chances on their best form the one horse who could be way ahead of his mark is the David Pipe trained favourite and he has to be the bet. 

REMASTERED 3 points win @ 11/4 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.00

A good turnout of 13 for this 3 mile Silver Cup Handicap Chase. Plenty can be give chances with the weights headed by last season’s Ladbroke Trophy winner Cloth Cap. JP McManus has three runners here in course specialist Regal Encore, Phoenix Way and Jerrysback with all three holding each way chances. The horse I like here is the Venetia William’s trained Belami Des Pictons who for a horse once rated as high as 148 looks well treated here off of 135. His re-appearance run when 4th beaten 6L to subsequent Aintree winner Snow Leopardess was a decent one with the 5th Blaklion also boosting the firm since by winning a veterans handicap chase at Haydock. In an open handicap I’ll be backing him. 

BELAMI DES PICTONS 2 points win 9/2 Bet365

 

Ascot 3.35

A cracker of a handicap to finish the card at Ascot with 14 going to post. The Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham form is well represented here by winner West Cork and third No Ordinary Joe and both have solid claims especially the latter if he can settle better than he did that day. Tritonic was back in 5th that day and is no forlorn shot here either. Goshen heads the weights although I do feel that he needs very deep ground which with a drying forecast he’s unlikely to get here. The same comment may apply to Harry Fry’s Metier who also has a poor run here a fortnight ago to put behind him. Onemorefortheroad is trained by Neil King and will have appreciated the dry week more than most. On a four timer today he stepped his form up when winning the Gerry Feilden Handicap Hurdle at Newbury on Ladbroke Trophy day when winning a four runner event from the front. That’s twice now he’s made all to win although listening to his trainer after that win he actually feels he could be better getting a lead. Only raised 3lb for that win and with Bryony Frost booked he could be the value each way bet in this competitive contest. I can’t resist a small each way saver on the Philip Hobbs novice Luttrell Lad who’s mark of 135 could be workable. His recent 1/2L second behind Jpr One has been boosted since not only by the winners second in a Cheltenham novice hurdle won by Datsalrightgino but also by the third I Am Maximus who impressed when winning at Newbury in the week. Luttrell Lad was giving I Am Maximus 7lb that day and one would feel that if that one was in this race off of 10 stone he would be pushing for favouritism. 

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 2 points each way @ 8/1 1/5^th 12345 William Hill

LUTTRELL LAD 1 point each way @ 12/1 1/5^th 1234 Bet365

 

[black rabbit]

Global Citizen  3 25 asc   1/4 pt ew   29/1      

Drop the anchor   3 25 asc  1/4  pt ew 19/1 

 

P/L   +  119.5  pts