Racing Chat - Wednesday August 18th

[The Brigadier]

Day one of my favourite meetings of the year - the York Ebor meeting and with the weather set fair it’s looking likely that the ground will be just perfect for the meeting. Here’s my thoughts on the four ITV TV races :- 

York 150

A maximum field of 22 go to post for this class 2  5F 89yd handicap and as you would imagine is a wide open race. If the ground was on the slow side I would be all over Pendleton who’s a very progressive sprinter but seems to be best with dig in the ground. Course specialist Copper Knight has won 5 of his 15 starts on the Knavesmire and looks sure to run his usual race and be thereabouts. The current favourite is the Henry Candy trained Twilight Calls who may have been inconvenienced by the soft ground last time out at Newmarket when a well backed favourite. He finished 4th that day beaten 3L by Whenthedealisdone and re-opposes on 6lb better terms today. That may not be enough however as Roger Teal’s winner looks the value play here. Always highly thought of by his trainer he appears to have improved for a gelding operation and is two from two since the cruelest cut of them all over 5F. A rise of 6lb for that Newmarket win may still under estimate his ability and as one of only 4 three year olds in the race can go close with William Buick (who’s two from two on him) in the plate. 

WHENTHEDEALISDONE 1 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5 123456

 

York 225

A small but select field of five go to post for the Group 3 Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. A strong case can be made for the front three in the betting with Noble Truth for Godolphin coming here on the back of a 2L win from Ehraz in a Newmarket maiden. That was his second career start as opposed to the runner up’s debut run and there may not be much between them now with Richard Hannon’s Shadwell owned Ehraz having bolted up since in a Ascot maiden. It would come as no shock were either of that pair to win but preference is for the Hugo Palmer trained Dubawi Legend who looked a group horse in the making when backed off the boards on his debut at Doncaster when pushed out to win a 7F novice stakes race by 5L. The second and third have both run well in defeat since giving the form some substance and this well bred half brother to three winners notably the smart Golden Pass could be very good. He’s very exciting and the one I want to be with today. The contest is made up by Goodwood maiden winner Imperial Fighter and 93 rated Royal Patronage. 

DUBAWI LEGEND 2 points win @ 2/2 Bet365

 

York 3.00

Eight go to post for this years renewal of the Group 2 1m 4F Great Voltigeur. Queens Vase winner Kemari has been absent since that victory and drops a couple of furlongs here carrying a 3lb penalty for that Royal Ascot win. He has nothing in hand on these on official ratings (in fact he comes out 7th best) and at around 5/2 represents poor value. The positive factor mind is that he takes a big chunk out of the betting thus providing value amongst the others. The key piece of form for this race is the Gordon Stakes run over the same trip at Goodwood 20 days ago. Sir Lucan finished runner up to Ottoman Emperor, 1 1/4L ahead of Third Realm with a further neck back to Youth Spirit and 6L back to Kemari’s stable mate Yibir. It’s easy enough to strike a line through the latter (and also Scope who has plenty to find). Watching the race back I’ll take Aidan O’Brien’s Sir Lucan to confirm the form but the Ballydoyle handler has High Definition in the field today and is the presumed pick of stable jockey Ryan Moore. If O’Brien feels High Definition is better than Sir Lucan than he could be the way to go here. He was undoubtably very disappointing in the Irish Derby last time when never going with any zest and beating only one home in the field of 11 beaten the best part of 30L. There was talk after that he had been struck into early in the race. He had previously chased home Hurricane Lane and Megallan in the Dante here where he stayed on to some effect and that form looks quite tasty now. I’m prepared to give him one more chance with Moore choosing him over Sir Lucan who holds plenty here although it’s unlikely to be pretty as he has come off the bridle early in all of of his four starts before staying on well. A good horse to back in running in the exchanges if that’s the way you like to play it. 

HIGH DEFINITION 1 point win @ 4/1 Unibet

 

York 3.35

A cracking renewal of the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes despite the late defection of ante post favourite St Marks Basilica. 7 have declared and my personal fancy is John and  Thady Gosden’s Mishriff who drops in trip here having not been disgraced when runner up to Derby winner Adayar in Ascot’s King George. Having won the best part of £10 million when winning two of the worlds most valuable races in the Saudi Cup and the Dubai Sheena Classic earlier this year, he appeared to just need an excellent third in the Eclipse when trading pretty short in running. 10F is maybe his optimum trip and he’s reportedly in excellent shape with his usual pilot David Egan on board. I’m very worried about this longer trip for Alcohol Free who attempts it for the first time whilst Mac Swiney may prefer softer ground. Love was 1 3/4L behind the selection at Ascot and may not be as effective back at 10F as well as being drafted in late following St Marks Basilica’s defection. Jim Crowley was very poor on William Haggas’s Mohaafeth over this track and distance last time although has his optimum conditions here. I can see him running well. Haggas also saddles Alenquer dropping in trip but he’ll need to step up on this years form which just leaves Juan Elcano who actually looks over priced here when you consider he finished a head in front of Mohaafeth over course and distance last time and is now 2lb better off. He’s five times bigger than his rival and looks over priced. I’ll stick with Mishriff but maybe a tiny saver  on Juan Elcano with Bet365's each way extra (if you can get on with them)

MISHRIFF 3 points win @ 7/4 Paddy Power

JUAN ELCANO 1 point each way extra Bet365 @ 25/1 1/4 1234

[alexcaruso808]

Just looking at the 1.50 at York and it's a tricky one!  It's so hard to know who to pick.