Racing chat - Wednesday 28 th July

[The Brigadier]

Day 2 of Glorious Goodwood and although its suppose to be mainly dry now throughout the week the damage has been done with the rain on Monday and Tuesday and today at least it will still ride pretty slow and tacky so once again its soft ground horses all the way. Here’s my thoughts on the ITV races :-

 

Goodwood 150

A typically wide open Goodwood three year old handicap with plenty of form lines to consider. The King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot form is represented by the 4th Siskany (why is regular rider riding at Sandown rather than here to ride him?) and the unlucky in running 6th Nagano who is 2lb better off here for a beating of a length. There shouldn’t be much between the pair and both can run well. The 1m 4F handicap run at Ascot 18 days ago is also well represented with the 3rd Glen Again, 4th Pleasant Man, 6th Recovery Run and 7th Irish legend all re-opposing. The horse I like here though is very much less exposed than all of the earlier mentioned in the Mark Johnstone trained handicap debutant Kings Prince. I napped him at Hamilton for the Glasgow Stakes 12 days ago when he attempted to make all but faded towards the final furlong and a half to finish 4th to Aleas and Title. On the face of it that was a disappointing effort but it was only his 4th ever run and I’m keeping faith in this Kingman colt who holds a future group entry in the Great Voltigeur at York next month. Johnstone runs three others here with Ben Curtis riding the selection which looks a positive booking. 

KINGS PRINCE  2 points each way @ 17/2 William Hill 1/5^th 12345

 

Goodwood 225

The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes is run over 7F of this unique track for fillies and mares and with a big field of 17 going to post the draw once again is vital with those drawn low having the call although it is not impossible to win from a high draw. The best in at these weights is the William Haggas trained Sacred but she has yet to encounter soft ground and is overlooked for that reason alone. Lavenders Blue is another who I’ve struck a line through due to the ground and the draw has not been kind to Highfield Princess drawn out in the car park in 17. Lullaby Blues is an interesting outsider as she’s two from two at the track and loves soft ground but has shown little in two starts this season. The one I like is at the bottom of the card in the Charlie Fellowes trained Vadream who arrives as a lightly raced 3 year old who appears to be on the upgrade still. She handles soft ground as shown when 3rd in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and is well berthed in stall 7. Jamie Spencer knows her well having been on board the last four starts and let’s hope he doesn’t get her locked away on the fence. 

VADREAM 1 point each way @ 7/1 Bet365 1/5^th 1234

 

Goodwood 300

The 5F Molecomb Stakes is a Group 3 contest for two year olds and has attracted a field of 11. The two stand out horses are Chipotle and Fearby. Chipotle let us down when never getting a run in the Super Sales race at Newbury 11 days ago and a line can comfortably be put through that effort. The issue with him though is that his only poor effort was when running on soft ground at Sandown in May and I’m against him today on ground issues. Fearby hails from the very much in form Ed Bethell stable who’s last 8 runners have finished 11211442 and bolted up in the listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown 26 days ago when encountering easy ground for the first time. He comfortably holds both the runner up Mojomaker and third that day Kaboo and it will be a shock were he not to finish ahead of that pair again here. Boogie and Armor are closely matched on Royal Ascot form but neither have raced on easy ground and Fearby is the nap bet of the day and worth a good bet. 

FEARBY 4 points win @ 15/8 Bet365

 

Goodwood 335

A cracking renewal of the Qatar Sussex Stakes run over a mile and a chance to see the three year old milers take in their elders for the first time this season. The middle distance three year olds proved superior at the weekend with Adayar winning the King George and it maybe the same outcome here with Jim Bolger’s ultra consistent Poetic Flare the one they all have to beat. He’s the highest rated horse in the field, handles any ground and is well drawn in stall. He’s already won the English 2000 Guineas and the St James Palace at Royal Ascot this season and if running his race can give Bolger his first ever victory in the feature race of the week. Three year old fillies Alcohol Free and Snow Lantern lock horns again with the score one all between them this season. It’ll be lost between them again with preference for the former on easy ground. The older horses don’t real excite me although saying that I can’t resist a small each way wager on Century Dream who has winning course form and loves the mud. 

POETIC FLARE 2 points win @ 6/5 William Hill

CENTURY DREAM ½ point each way @ 20/1 Boylesports 1/5^th 123

 

Goodwood 410

A 5F conditions stakes for two year olds concludes the ITV races. There’s very little soft ground form to hand with only Flotus and La Feile proven on a easy terrain. Canonized has a course win to his name but all his form has been on fast ground and is overlooked. I’ll keep stakes small here with preference for the Crisford’s Starspangledbanner filly Flotus who was very impressive on his debut here on soft ground and although not following up her initial promise since may like the drop back to the minimum trip here under Frankie Dettori who’s ridden her on her last two starts and as she took a bit of a hold last time may just let her blast from the gate. I’m also suggesting the other filly who’s won on soft ground La Feile as a saver bet. 

FLOTUS 1 ½ points win @ 4/1 Bet365

LA FEILE ½ point win @ 9/1 Bet365

 

[Zilzalian]

2yo speed figures for the 3:00 Goodwood

I am going to stick with the raw figures here because i am uncertain about the "acting on the ground" angle.

1 Swayze  129+      25/1

2 Amour    128         8/1

3 Chipotle 127         4/1

 

I would not put anyone off Fearby because it has the best figures on the soft, most of the runners we have to speculate

but the price is far too short for me for what it has done so far. And I am sure Martyn Meade would not run

Swayze if he didn't think it could handle the ground.

 

4:10 Goodwood, Opinion based on not enough data is that canonised is the bet in this race i think experience may well get it home.