Racing Chat - Tuesday 27th July

[The Brigadier]

Day one of Glorious Goodwood and for once we know what the ground conditions will be. Soft (good to soft in places) is the official call and with thunder storms possible we’re looking for soft ground performers. He’s my thoughts on the 5 ITV races :- 

1.50

The 10F Chesterfield Cup Handicap has attracted a maximum field of 18 with low drawn horses favoured due to the turning nature of the track. There’s likely to be a pace burn up on the inside with Majestic Dawn (stall 1), Cockalorum (stall 2) and last years winner Maydanny (stall 5) all wanting to lead. The last named is 12lb higher than last years 5L victory but has to prove he is as effective on soft as he is fast and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he was taken out to wait for the Golden Mile on Friday when the ground may have dried out. Majestic Dawn is the one I like, he won last years Cambridgeshire when making all in first time blinkers and has presumably prepped for this valuable handicap when running a credible 3rd at Windsor over a trip too short and without his customary blinkers. Back over 10F on ground he appears to like (he has actually won on heavy ground) and with the blinkers re-applied he holds an excellent chance for Paul and Oliver Cole.  Migration was a massive eye catcher in his re-appearance at Salisbury but will need some Buick magic from his wide draw. 

MAJESTIC DAWN 2 points each way @ 8/1 William Hill 1/5^th 123456

 

2.25

The 7F Vintage Stakes is a Group 2 contest for 2yo’s only. There’s doubts on the ground for both the front pair here with Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow having only run on good to firm. I’m against him not only on the ground but the Coventry form from Royal Ascot has not worked out. 13 horses from that race have run since and only one of them have won. Under a 3lb penalty I’m happy to oppose him and likewise Hannon’s Lusail who’s only run on soft was to rival Angel Bleu at Pontefract when beaten 3 1/4L. It’s a shame there’s not 8 runners here as I do fancy Ralph Beckett’s Angel Bleu who’s the only one of the seven that has proven form on soft. That was at the aforementioned Pontefract in May. He flopped in the Coventry behind Berkshire Shadow on fast ground where he also had his excuses and was seen only last Saturday when running well against the highly thought of Godolphin colt New Science at Ascot .He looked like he was going to win that day until swerving away inside the final furlong and only going down by a length. For a horse that has already comprehensively beaten Lusail and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori he looks massively overpriced when you consider Lusail is a 15/8 shot and Angel Bleu can be backed at 14/1. There’s only 7 runners and I wouldn’t normally play each way with that amount of runners but at that price I am making an exception and am backing him each way 1/4 odds 1-2. 

ANGEL BLEU 2 points each way @ 12/1 1/4 1-2 Boylesports

 

300

The Group 2 Lennox Stakes is run over 7F and does have a draw bias as they race into a right hand bend and low drawn horses would be favoured. King George winning trainer Charlie Appleby saddles two here in last years winner Space Blues and the progressive three year old Creative Force. Buick appears to have chosen the former but I think he may have called wrong this time. Like last year Space Blues has a wide draw (he was drawn 10 then and 12 now) but he hasn’t been seen since flopping at Meydan over 6F in March and more importantly appears better suited by fast ground. Stablemate and the ride of James Doyle, Creative Force has proven form on soft ground a decent draw in 2 and although rated officially 6lb inferior to Space Blues looks sure to run a big race. Kinross will like the conditions but here’s drawn on the wide outside which is a negative to me and the ground appears to have gone for track specialist Duke Of Hazzard. 

CREATIVE FORCE 2 points win @ 3/1 Bet365

 

335

The Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup is a group 1 contest run over 2 miles and is all about John and Thady Gosden’s superstar stayer Stradivarius. He’s won this race the last four years and is going for a remarkable fifth win. He was given a rare shocking ride from Frankie Dettori in the Ascot Gold Cup when given far too much to do and getting himself into trouble some way out. There’s no doubt he’s the one they all have to beat and despite what connections and some pundits say he won’t mind the ground as his most eye catching victory was on soft ground in last years Ascot Gold Cup when I’ve never seen a horse accelerate away from his field on soft ground over a distance so impressively before. It would be great for the game if he could win again but there is not room for sentiment when gambling and at the prices I’m happy to take him on with Alan King’s stayer Trueshan. He was very impressive when taking his field apart in last years Long Distance Cup on Champions Day at Ascot in October with Stradivarius well beaten. That was on soft ground and that’s obviously the key to this 5 year old gelding. He’s had two outings this season, a good second to Japan in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester giving him 5lb and more recently when attempting to lug a massive weight in the Northumberland Plate without being disgraced in 6th place. Hollie Doyle rides and he looks fair value to beat Stradivarius although I must admit if the veteran wins I’ll be cheering him home as well. 

TRUESHAN 2 points win @ 9/4 Bet365 

 

410

Ishvara EW

A typically tricky to solve 5F handicap completes ITV’s 5 races. Bets should be kept to a minimum as the draw will no doubt play a part here as well. The two favourites King Of Stars and Rewaayat have to conclusively prove that they can handle softish ground and for a small stake I’m looking at a big outsider here who’s career form figures on soft ground read 201220. The horse is Ishvara, trained  at Newmarket by Robert Cowell and is visored for the first time. He has to put a couple of moderate runs this season behind him but in the hope the ground and visor spark him up I’ll play to a small each way stake. 

ISHVARA ½ point each way @ 50/1 1/4 1234 Bet365

[Zilzalian]

Speed figures for the 225 2yo G2 at Goodwood.

1 Angel Blue                     123++

2 lusail                              125

3 Birkshire Royal              124

The top rated is Angel Blue due to its soft ground win and defeat of Lusail in soft ground.

the win and Forecast (7.5/1) will pay for the day

Edited July 27, 2021 by Zilzalian
update