Racing Chat - Friday 2nd July

[yossa6133]

Backed Kaboo in the 2:20 Sandown, price a bit skinnier than I was hoping for at 2/1! But ran a big race on debut when well backed at Royal Ascot and looked a ready made winner. No idea if the price will come in or go out but I've taken some tonight and may go in again if it drifts a bit.

[Zilzalian]

Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.

with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?

I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th  (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something"  so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting.  I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)

1 Navello                    125    6/1

2 Fearby                     122   10/1

3 instinctive move       117+  5/2

 others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+

 

Interesting result, Kaboo btn 5L, I very rarely back anything less than 7/2, I do however back allways forecasts and tricasts and singles above 5/1 so i finished around level for this race even though i had the winner at 10/1. i see little point in spending my time rating a race and then not doing FC and TC. The golden rule for me is don't believe the BS spewed around horses a further example is the result of the 405, euchan glen is a solid proven performer 11/4 against john leeper at 5/4, Does someone want to explain why john leeper was 5/4? If you can't make a profit on what you are doing simply change what you are doing.

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Zilzalian
update