Racing Chat - Friday 2nd July

[yossa6133]

Backed Kaboo in the 2:20 Sandown, price a bit skinnier than I was hoping for at 2/1! But ran a big race on debut when well backed at Royal Ascot and looked a ready made winner. No idea if the price will come in or go out but I've taken some tonight and may go in again if it drifts a bit.

[Zilzalian]

Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.

with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?

I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th  (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something"  so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting.  I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)

1 Navello                    125    6/1

2 Fearby                     122   10/1

3 instinctive move       117+  5/2

 others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+

 

Interesting result, Kaboo btn 5L, I very rarely back anything less than 7/2, I do however back allways forecasts and tricasts and singles above 5/1 so i finished around level for this race even though i had the winner at 10/1. i see little point in spending my time rating a race and then not doing FC and TC. The golden rule for me is don't believe the BS spewed around horses a further example is the result of the 405, euchan glen is a solid proven performer 11/4 against john leeper at 5/4, Does someone want to explain why john leeper was 5/4? If you can't make a profit on what you are doing simply change what you are doing.

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Zilzalian
update

[cannotbebeat]

4.05 Sandown Euchen Glen 9/4

 

Good luck all CNBB.

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.

with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?

I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th  (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something"  so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting.  I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)

1 Navello                    125    6/1

2 Fearby                     122   10/1

3 instinctive move       117+  5/2

 others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+

 

Oh yes, very interesting.  I see that Navello is the Timeform top rated at 107 but is rubbished by them on the ATR website and only given two stars.  The RPR rating for this horse is 107, just one point behind their top rated Kaboo.  Hence on that basis looks to be a good bet.  I don't think I will ever understand how ratings transforms into betting opportunities.  I will have £1 win on this at 15/2 (mainly on price) and £1 win on Little Earl at 12/1.  As you say Kaboo does not look like a banker bet to include in my Trixie today.  Good luck to @yossa6133he deserves a decent win

 

 

 

[alancraik]

todays top rated selections

Don 2:10 Six Strings 9/2
Don 2:45 Jawwaal 3/1
Don 3:20 Tenaya Canyon 3/1

Sand 2:55 Withhold 10/3
Sand 4:05 Euchen Glen 11/4
Sand 4:40 General Zoff 11/2

 

 

[roger2256]

July 0

1pt level stakes win only 

15.20 Don Pornstar Martini 15/2

16.50 NA Plantagenet 12/1

Prices as of now b365 

[yossa6133]

13 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.

with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?

I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th  (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something"  so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting.  I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)

1 Navello                    125    6/1

2 Fearby                     122   10/1

3 instinctive move       117+  5/2

 others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+

 

Sure, but money coming for it on debut in a hot race is significant...they know they have a fast horse! And it backed that up with a solid run. Price is skinnier than I wanted but I decided to back it anyway rather than let it win, think 2/1 was about my cut off though. 

[yossa6133]

Just watched it again and Bond Chairman finished like a train, was his third run, had more cover and the rail. Another one for the tracker though!

[The Equaliser]

My Trixie today is:

2.45 Don Jawaal 3/1

3.20 Don Noorban 5/1

4.05 San John Leeper 6/4

£1 win Trixie = £4.00 Poss return of £109.00

2.20 San Navello £1 win at 15/2 & Little Earl £1 win at 12/1

2.55 San Red Verdan (RM) £2 win at 7.8 = £13.33 Profit if it wins.

Total stakes so far £8.00

 

 

[fd1972uk]

Went with Kaboo and Instinctive Move, think I get my money back on both so no loss. Fearby who won, didn't even give it a glance looked through the field last night and thought of maybe Mojomaker or Devious Angel. 

As soon as I logged in to watch it and noticed Fearby up the betting, thought to myself there's the winner, lol. 

[MCLARKE]

Flat selection

Beverley 6.23

MOTAWAAZY 11/4

[Trotter]

Sad news that Arazi has died aged 32 ......... a grand old age

The French trained colt put up one of the greatest performance ever seen on the track in the Breeders Cup Juvenile in 1991 ...... coming from last spot, scything through the field and going away to win by miles ......

Arazi - 91' Breeders Cup Juvenile - YouTube

[azzybear]

friends don't ask 4.50

[fd1972uk]

M

4 hours ago, fd1972uk said:

Went with Kaboo and Instinctive Move, think I get my money back on both so no loss. Fearby who won, didn't even give it a glance looked through the field last night and thought of maybe Mojomaker or Devious Angel. 

As soon as I logged in to watch it and noticed Fearby up the betting, thought to myself there's the winner, lol. 

Was wrong thought Inst Move finished 4th, but it got caught. 

[The Equaliser]

22 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Coincidence has it that i just rated this 2yo race that @yossa6133 has highlighted, and there is a good debate here based on what he and the established "tipsters" say.

with no disrespect intended towards anyone not least yossa. many years ago i did some research and it was based around so called "it was backed and ran well at Ascot" "therefore it should be a shoe in in this" my research suggest that this is "wrong think" yes it may well win but is it a bet?

I actually got the forecast in the Ascot race (proofed by my piece on this site) So is it a bet? well to be honest the answer is no unless it has performed better than the other horses in the race and the figures suggest it hasn't. The Ascot race was very fast btw but Kaboo finished 6th, if you look at the horses in front of it eg bond chairman 4th  (66/1) btn 2.5l ran on the near side as did Kaboo btn 3.5l in 6th. so its pure speculation that Kaboo did anything other than run "a race" so would you apply the same logic to Bond Chairman as you do with Kaboo? lets be honest here the "tipsters" are going off the fact that a good few quid came for Kaboo therefore it must be "something"  so lets see what happens tomorrow it may prove quite interesting.  I am not saying Kaboo can't win but its my honest opinion that it is a lousy bet at around 6/4 - 2/1 (don't let me put you off, this is only my opinion based on the available evidence and i hope it makes for interesting reading and or debate)

1 Navello                    125    6/1

2 Fearby                     122   10/1

3 instinctive move       117+  5/2

 others at 117,115, 114, and Kaboo at 112+

 

Interesting result, Kaboo btn 5L, I very rarely back anything less than 7/2, I do however back allways forecasts and tricasts and singles above 5/1 so i finished around level for this race even though i had the winner at 10/1. i see little point in spending my time rating a race and then not doing FC and TC. The golden rule for me is don't believe the BS spewed around horses a further example is the result of the 405, euchan glen is a solid proven performer 11/4 against john leeper at 5/4, Does someone want to explain why john leeper was 5/4? If you can't make a profit on what you are doing simply change what you are doing.

 

Very good advice

 

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

My Trixie today is:

2.45 Don Jawaal 3/1

3.20 Don Noorban 5/1

4.05 San John Leeper 6/4

£1 win Trixie = £4.00 Poss return of £109.00

2.20 San Navello £1 win at 15/2 & Little Earl £1 win at 12/1

2.55 San Red Verdan (RM) £2 win at 7.8 = £13.33 Profit if it wins.

Total stakes so far £8.00

 

 

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner in my Trixie; what a fool to back John Leeper instead of Euchen Glen; never mind I'm learning.  In the 3.20 I once again got duped by the Timeform 5 star rating and on that occasion the favourite did oblige. Luckily, my relatively outsider Red Verdon won for me under Ryan Moore at a drifted price of 8/1 (not that I got that).  anyway the net result was a £7.33 profit on the day.  This makes my new balance £734.56

Loads of class racing at Sandown and Haydock tomorrow; will be spoilt for choice won't I ?

 

[Zilzalian]

50 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

RESULTS UPDATE

Only one winner in my Trixie; what a fool to back John Leeper instead of Euchen Glen; never mind I'm learning.  In the 3.20 I once again got duped by the Timeform 5 star rating and on that occasion the favourite did oblige. Luckily, my relatively outsider Red Verdon won for me under Ryan Moore at a drifted price of 8/1 (not that I got that).  anyway the net result was a £7.33 profit on the day.  This makes my new balance £734.56

Loads of class racing at Sandown and Haydock tomorrow; will be spoilt for choice won't I ?

 

best thing to do is chuck timeform in the bin all it does is give the bookies an excuse to shorten up prices, its one of those publications that were brilliant at first and then went downhill, the best form is your own eyes in my opinion and even better if you can back it up with "something "you" know."

[The Equaliser]

40 minutes ago, Zilzalian said:

best thing to do is chuck timeform in the bin all it does is give the bookies an excuse to shorten up prices, its one of those publications that were brilliant at first and then went downhill, the best form is your own eyes in my opinion and even better if you can back it up with "something "you" know."

Very true.  On many, many occasions the bookies install the top rated Timeform selection as being favourite.  I am trying more to focus on good recent form under the same race conditions today than go by the ratings.  Those 5 stars always grab my attention so I need to practice ignoring them

[Zilzalian]

23 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very true.  On many, many occasions the bookies install the top rated Timeform selection as being favourite.  I am trying more to focus on good recent form under the same race conditions today than go by the ratings.  Those 5 stars always grab my attention so I need to practice ignoring them

well heres the thing, the only racing publication i buy is the RP weekender i buy it for one reason only and that is the pull out results section. i never read it until after the racing is finished so i can sit on the bog having a laugh at how bad the tipsters are/were. a good example is the Weekender out before royal ascot, 35 races at ascot and they had a full two page spread feature about how one of them tipped accidental agent at 50/1 2 yrs previously. and an almost full age spread on an american woman who called a race meeting in america. That i would suggest is as much use as a one legged man in an arse kicking contest.