Racing Chat - Saturday 29th May

[The Brigadier]

Having shown big profits on the last two Saturdays of 29.25 and 35.70 points I’m hoping that the run continues on Saturday. Not the best days racing which is no surprise a week before the Epsom Derby but I can still see some value there and here’s my thoughts on the 8 ITV races.

 

Haydock 1.45 

A typically wide open Haydock 6F sprint likely to be run on drying slow ground. Bielsa arrives in form but doesn’t win that often whilst the other favourite Capote’s Dream is in terrific form but is unproven on soft ground. Tim Easterby could be in for a good day and it’s his 7 year old Hyperfocus who I think is worth being with each way (especially with the firms paying extra places). His form figures at the Lancashire course read 11317 and can race here today off of just a 1lb higher mark than his last victory which was a 2L course and distance victory last September. He loves soft ground so I’m hoping conditions don’t dry too quick but at the prices he’s worth an each way punt. 

HYPERFOCUS 1 1/2  point each way @ 11/1 BetVictor 1/5^th 12345 

 

Beverley 2.00 

The Hilary Needler is run over 5F of the Yorkshire track and with the stalls on the inside it can be an advantage to be drawn low against the rail. There are 3 newcomers which obviously need monitoring in the market but I’m pretty keen on the Adrian Paul Keatley trained Kyber Crystal who was an unfancied 20/1 poke when making his debut a fortnight ago on bad ground when being the only horse to give winner Ebro River some type of race ending up a length down at the finish with 6L back to the remainder. The winner was an emphatic winner of the National Stakes at Sandown on Thursday night giving the ? form a very solid look indeed. Sean Davis rides and is nicely drawn in stall 4. Hester Prynne was a nice winner on her debut over course and distance but that was gained on good to firm ground and today’s terrain is likely to be totally different. 

KYBER CRYSTAL 3 points win @ 7/4 William Hill

 

Haydock 2.20 

John Quinn’s super fast sprinter won this event last season and with so much speed from the gate will be a tough nut to crack here. At today’s weights he comes out the best horse, arrives in excellent form having won at Chester from King’s Lynn (looks held here) and handles soft conditions - what’s not to like?

Tarboosh has a 3lb penalty to shoulder but has ew claims along with a host of others but I’ll stick with Quinn’s speedball under usual pilot Jason Hart who knows him and rides him so well. 

EL ASTRONAUTE 2 points win @ 9/2 BetVictor 

 

Chester 2.40 

Boardman has been a revelation in his last two starts. Tim Easterby’s Kingman gelding has bolted up in 7F handicaps at Haydock and York and has a 10lb rise to contend with for his recent success which has been boosted since by the subsequent victory of the 5th home that day Molls Memory last weekend. Rob Hornby who was amongst the winners this week following his return from injury takes over from stable jockey David Allan who’s elected to go to Haydock. He’s fairly drawn in stall 4 and looks set to run a big race. Thirsk winner Another Batt could be the one to give him most to do. 

BOARDMAN 3 points win @ 5/1 Bet365 

 

Haydock 2.55 

I’m not really sure what was going with the Kirsten Rausing owned fillies in this race as the most likely winner at the 6 day stage was Albaflora who has her ground here but was pulled out and Alpinista was left in who is unproven on slow ground! A further twist came when Alpinista was immediately pulled out leading me to believe that there was some clerical error here. In a further twist her Oriental Mystique who was down to run at Sandown last night was also left in and then pulled out of Sandown. Confused? I certainly was especially as I had backed Albaflora ante-post!

Anyway they may have the last laugh as David Simcock’s Oriental Mystique who ran her owners Alpinista to a length at Goodwood on her re-appearance looks the most likely winner to my eyes. Cabaletta is not a filly I particularly like and is blinkered for the first time here but is the main danger. 

ORIENTAL MYSTIQUE 2 points win @ 11/4 Bet365 

 

Beverley 3.10 

The Continental Two Year Old Trophy is run over 5F and has attracted a small field of only 6 this time around. Richard Fahey debutant Straits Of Moyle is the unknown quantity in the field and has to be monitored closely in the market and all 5 of his opponents have a chance of sorts. Richard Hannon saddles Robjon and he may well have bumped into one at York last week in the well backed Joe Tuite trained The Organiser who’s Royal Ascot bound. That was on soft ground and he to me is the likeliest winner. 

ROBJON 2 points win @ 7/1 Bet365

 

Haydock 3.30 

Safe Voyage won this when is was last ran two years ago and his record at the Lancashire track is 4 wins from 5 runs and although he has his ground today two things are against him in my eyes. Firstly a 5lb penalty and secondly he has failed to beat a horse home in both of his last two outings all be it in much better grade than this. With Thanks is the obvious alternative but she comes here following an absence of 209 days and would appreciate the ground even softer. It’s worth giving Clive Cox’s progressive River Nymph a chance not upped into Group company. He comes here fit and 7F on ground with ease in it are his optimum conditions it seems. On official ratings he needs to find 6lb to match the two top rated Safe Voyage and Glorious Journey but he’s on an upward curve and with Adam Kirby in the saddle can run a big race. 

RIVER NYMPH 1 points each way  @ 13/2 Bet365 1/5^th 123 

 

Beverley 3.45 

The favourite Sibaaq stands out on form here against a bunch of mostly exposed handicappers. He’s been raised only 4lb for his course and distance victory 45 days ago with the form being boosted by the subsequent win of the runner up that day. He’s the only 3 year old in the race and Mark Johnstone’s improver has a major chance with Ben Curtis on board. The one factor which stops me putting him up as a good bet is the ground. It was good to firm for his win and has yet to prove he likes very soft ground so at his skinny odds I’m happy to look elsewhere for a bit of each way value. Richard Fahey’s Duesenberg maybe the one. He’s only run on soft ground twice - winning at Haydock on his racecourse debut as a juvenile and when 3rd at Redcar to Embolden so is obviously well suited by it. We can strike a line through his latest moderate effort at Haydock because of the fast ground and to small stakes he can outrun his double figure odds. 

DUESENBERG 1 point each way @ 14/1 William Hill 1/5^th 1234

 

 

 

 

 

[Wildgarden]

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