Racing Chat - Friday 23rd April

[The Brigadier]

An intriguing Sandown Classic Trial card on ITV tomorrow and with the weather set fair the ground looks likely to ride on the fast side of good with the course having watered during the week.

 

Here’s my thoughts on the four Sandown races (there’s also the Highland National at Perth been shown at 2.40 which looks wide open)

 

1.50

The Esher Cup has a history of producing many pattern performers over the years and is one of the most informative early season 3 year old handicaps in the racing calendar. This year’s renewal has attracted a decent sized field of ten and features some highly progressive three year olds.

Ilza’Eem (what a shocking name!) has been well supported throughout the week and even had his form boosted when Royal Fleet who just touched him off at Kempton in November (pair clear) won at Yarmouth mid week. Simon & son Ed Crisford’s colt has bolted up since in an un-competitive novices stakes at Redcar and starts his life in handicaps off of what looks a workable mark of 89. He’s definitely a player here especially when you consider that he was one of just 23 that was left in the 2000 Guineas at the latest declaration stage earlier this week.

The other ‘sexy’ runner is the Gosden’s Rifleman who’s also making his handicap debut here off of 87 having won a 7f Kempton novices stakes by 3 1/2L from  Ahlawi (winner since) in November. Owned by the Ballydoyle battalion he’ll be ridden by their jockey Ryan Moore.

The one I prefer today though is the Richard Hannon trained Dingle who has, unlike his two market rivals, had a recent run which has to be a massive bonus. He showed good form in two maidens (3rd in the Convival at York) prior to winning on his handicap debut at Kempton last September and ran a stormer on his re-appearance when third to Mithras and Saint Lawrence at Newbury in what was without doubt the best 3 year old handicap we’ve seen this season so far. He was beaten 2 1/4L although would of been a bit closer had he not been hampered inside the final furlong. That is form that will no doubt prove to worth following and the handicapper has raised him 2lb for that effort although that will not come into account until next time so he is effectively 2lb well in today. This is a race that is well worth following for the future and at an each way price I’m be going with Dingle.

 

DINGLE 1.5 points each way @ 11/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

2.25

The Group 3 Gordon Richards Stakes is run over 10f and has been won by the likes of Crystal Ocean (twice), Al Kareem, Noble Mission, and Singspiel. Sir Michael Stoute has a particularly good record in the race having won it 9 times. His representative this season is Highest Ground, an imposing Frankel colt who started last season by giving a comfortable 2 1/2L defeat to Waldkonig who re-opposes here. He followed that up by a slightly disappointing neck defeat in the Dante at York by Thunderous who is another rival here. The vibes are strong that he’s wintered well and we all know what Sir Michael is capable of doing with his older horses.

Waldkonig will have fitness on his side having already been out this season winning a handicap under top weight at Pontefract, that form was given a boost when the third came out and won the City & Suburban Handicap at Epsom in the week. He looks the chief danger as I think that Hukum, who was well supported earlier today, may ideally need a bit further. He probably didn’t stay the Leger distance but maybe 12 furlongs is his optimum trip nowadays.

Thunderous who beat the selection in the Musidora last May hasn’t been seen since September and I’m more than happy to stick with the Stoute runner in a race he’s done so well in over the years.

 

HIGHEST GROUND 2 points win @ 9/4 William Hills

 

3.00

The Bet365 Mile is a Group 2 contest not surprisingly run over eight furlongs. There’s a strong favourite here in John And Thady Gosden’s Palace Pier who at today’s weights is 9lb and upwards clear of his three rivals. A winner twice here as a two year old this looks a good spot for the Kingman colt to start his 2021 campaign. He progressed from winning a handicap at Newcastle (what a certainty he must of been that day off of 98 at odds against!) to winning the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Jacques Le Marois at Deuville before finishing only third in the QE2 at Ascot on Champions Day. This is a particularly good piece of placing by the Gosden’s as they miss any penalties for his two group ones last season as they occurred prior to August 31st.

Happy Power and Bless Him don’t look good enough but the Roger Varian trained Khuzaam comes here with 9lb to find and on the back of a very impressive win of the Bombardier All Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes. He’ll need to improve again but does have fitness on his side even if he does seem to prefer the synthetic surfaces.

From a punting view it’s a hard race to get too involved with and I’ll happily sit this one out though if forced maybe a small stakes straight forecast Palace Pier to beat Khuzaam is the call.

 

3.35

The Bet365 Classic Trial is run over just short of 10 furlongs and is a good guide to the Epsom Derby with the last winner to come out of the race Benny The Dip who was runner up back in 1997. John Gosden is the leading trainer in the race having won it 9 times in total.

Charlie Appleby has his Moultons Paddocks string on fire at the moment with his last 8 runners finishing 12111121 and he saddles two here in Adayar and likely favourite Yibir. The former has to prove himself on the likely fast terrain having only raced on deep ground as a juvenile whilst the latter is a smashing looking full brother to Group 1 winner and Oaks runner up Wild Illusion who won his maiden here last season before winning the Haynes, Hanson & Clark at Newbury from Megallan who’s already boosted the form by winning at Newcastle this season.  He looks the one they all have to beat here.

There are a number of promising unexposed types who can also go well including the race specialist Gosden runner Trawlerman who was so impressive when winning a poor race at Pontefract earlier in the month. He shapes like today’s trip will be a bare minimum in time.

Martyn Meade’s Lone Eagle is the highest rated here having won the Group 3 Zealand Stakes last Autumn at Newmarket on soft ground. He sets the standard although it was a weak renewal he won that day.

Etonian is interesting as he won’t mind the ground and won twice here last season. Trained by Richard Hannon I fully expect him to be the chief threat to Yibir.

 

YIBIR 2 points win @ 5/2 William Hill

ETONIAN 1/2 point each way @ 15/2 William Hill 1/5th 123

 

 

[Wildgarden]

225 sandown highest ground 9/4 most and thunderous 11/2 william hill

335 sandown recovery run 12-1 ew betvictor

Edited April 22, 2021 by Wildgarden

[cannotbebeat]

2.50 Doncaster Taravara 11/4

3.35 Sandown Yibir 11/4

4.10 Sandown Nash Nasha 5/4

5.10 Worcester Walk In The Storm 9/5

7.15 Worcester Dragon Bones 5/2

7.35 Chepstow Get The Appeal 6/4

7.45 Worcester Hydroplane 4/7

Good luck all CNBB.

 

[Zilzalian]

Observations from this quarter, worst bet of the day 4:40 Sandown sea the shells at time of writing is 10/11. be wary people i'm not saying it can't win but both its races at wolves were very slow. Also Charlton who "seems" to be out of form, Holly Doyle is riding 3 for him. But i will back them to small stakes.

[roger2256]

April  -5 

1pt level stakes win only 

15.15 Per Getareason 9/1

16.20 Per Cossack Dancer 12/1

16.35 Wor Always Able 4/1 

18.45 Wor La Reine Poutine 8/1

19.35 Che Solstice Star 25/1 

Prices as of now b365 

Edited April 23, 2021 by roger2256
Text

[azzybear]

ilazeem 1.50 whenthedealisdone 2.15 gunsightridge 3.15 trawlerman 3.35 

[azzybear]

1.50 nr I have a look again 

[azzybear]

I'll stick with the 3 don't like changing my tips 

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

Observations from this quarter, worst bet of the day 4:40 Sandown sea the shells at time of writing is 10/11. be wary people i'm not saying it can't win but both its races at wolves were very slow. Also Charlton who "seems" to be out of form, Holly Doyle is riding 3 for him. But i will back them to small stakes.

Many thanks; I'll lump on Fablis.  Well, put in a £5 win bet at 5.1 (currently 4.6)

 

[Trotter]

Very nice card at Sandown today

One interesting horse runs in the novice stakes at 4.10

the unraced 'Chiasma' is a full sister to the mighty Frankel ........ trained by the Gosdens, ridden by Frankie

currently 15/8 second favourite

[The Equaliser]

Some bets so far today. 

4.20 Perth Balranaid £9 win at 3.35 = £20.73 profit if wins

4.40 San Fablis £5 win at 5.1 (now 5.5) = £20.09 profit if wins

5.20 Perth Walking On Air £13.40 at 2.54 um at 2.40 : Now Matched 11.50am

6.45 worc Rare Clouds £2 win at 11.09 = £19.78 profit if it wins

Stakes = £29.40

 

Edited April 23, 2021 by The Equaliser

[The Equaliser]

43 minutes ago, Trotter said:

Very nice card at Sandown today

One interesting horse runs in the novice stakes at 4.10

the unraced 'Chiasma' is a full sister to the mighty Frankel ........ trained by the Gosdens, ridden by Frankie

currently 15/8 second favourite

Interesting; I was just wondering how a full sister to Frankel could be only three years old??

[Bathtime For Rupert]

 

20 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Interesting; I was just wondering how a full sister to Frankel could be only three years old??

Their parents are in their twenties - clearly the spark hasn't died out yet!

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

 

Their parents are in their twenties - clearly the spark hasn't died out yet!

Wish I could get some of that

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All prices Bet365:

1.05 Doncaster - 1pt e/w Neveyah @ 16/1

1.15 Sandown - 1pt win Charlie Fellowes @ 13/2

1.50 Sandown - 1pt win Tawaareq @ 13/2

2.15 Doncaster - 1pt win Tinochio @ 7/1

2.25 Sandown - 1pt e/w Extra Elusive @ 16/1

2.40 Perth - 1pt win Big Difference @ 7/1

3.35 Sandown - 1pt win Etonian @ 7/1

[Ironjoe]

Late selections today overall -2.25

sandown 1.15 nomadic empire 4/1 1 pt win

Sandown 1.50 quintillus 7/1 1pt EW (4places sky)

Sandown 3.35 etonian 7/1 1pt EW (4places)

Perth 2.05 collooney 7/2 1pt win 

Perth 2.40 the wicket chicken 14/1 1pt ew (4places)

Perth 3.50 chilli filli 5/1 1 pt win

9 point outlay

Good luck ?

[Trotter]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Wish I could get some of that

I think I'll stick to human women...... ?

[Wildgarden]

22 hours ago, Wildgarden said:

225 sandown highest ground 9/4 most and thunderous 11/2 william hill last! money all on the winner. which was a good sign for it.

335 sandown recovery run 12-1 ew betvictor  nowhere... big outsider won just not mine. 

roll on the weekend. bad day on here picka and personal... was due a bad day 

[Zilzalian]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Many thanks; I'll lump on Fablis.  Well, put in a £5 win bet at 5.1 (currently 4.6)

 

4th of 5 the fav. fablis  2nd i took out charltons horse and the johnson horse left 3 i crossed the fc ended up with 15/1, being a tad greedy i could have done with the 3rd getting second or first but profit is profit, food for thought next time? @EQUALISER odd thing happened in last on tv i backed haggis horse last night at 14/1 bog so got 25/1 but i was watching the betting on 365 and 40/1 was last show.15 points is a big difference. its not the first time i have noticed this sort of discrepancy.

[Zilzalian]

6 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Interesting; I was just wondering how a full sister to Frankel could be only three years old??

Full sister not twins lol i have a full brother 5 years younger than me

 

[The Equaliser]

5 hours ago, Zilzalian said:

4th of 5 the fav. fablis  2nd i took out charltons horse and the johnson horse left 3 i crossed the fc ended up with 15/1, being a tad greedy i could have done with the 3rd getting second or first but profit is profit, food for thought next time? @EQUALISER odd thing happened in last on tv i backed haggis horse last night at 14/1 bog so got 25/1 but i was watching the betting on 365 and 40/1 was last show.15 points is a big difference. its not the first time i have noticed this sort of discrepancy.

Well done with that.  I didn't realise that Tom Marquand was back in this country, may well have had a small wager on myself.  Very talented jockey; glad to see William Haggis doing so well too.  With regard to price changes to SP; this seems to happen all too frequently, the bookies look after each other don't they?

 

[The Equaliser]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Some bets so far today. 

4.20 Perth Balranaid £9 win at 3.35 = £20.73 profit if wins

4.40 San Fablis £5 win at 5.1 (now 5.5) = £20.09 profit if wins

5.20 Perth Walking On Air £13.40 at 2.54 um at 2.40 : Now Matched 11.50am

6.45 worc Rare Clouds £2 win at 11.09 = £19.78 profit if it wins

Stakes = £29.40

 

RESULTS UPDATE

One non runner and three losers.  Fablis ran the best race of my selections.  I noticed that with quite a few races today when the races were in-running, the cash out facility was cancelled quite early on during the race.  I don't know if this will become the "norm" but I will certainly consider putting in a "lay" bet so as to make a small profit in future should I feel that my runner won't win the race .

£16 loss today means my new balance has dropped back and is now £1,005.85 (Bank £1,056.22).  Let's hope I can find a couple of winners tomorrow.

 

 

 

[MCLARKE]

11 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I don't know if this will become the "norm" but I will certainly consider putting in a "lay" bet so as to make a small profit in future should I feel that my runner won't win the race .

I'm not sure that this is the best option for long term profits. In effect you have 2 bets on he same horse, one to win and one to lose. Also the time delays are also a factor that will most likely work against you.