Hunter Chase - 7.20 Exeter

[Darran]

This has to be a very strong contender for worst hunter chase ever run. Fair play to connections for running in this rather than a point because even last place gets £240 and the two no hopers would struggle to win that in a point. Starweld has a point rating of 69 which is the lowest I can remember of any horse who has gone hunter chasing. Granted I haven't looked at every no hopers rating this season and he did run at Stratford last month at odds of 250/1. Milberry did at least manage to finish at Larkhill which is something had been struggling to in points, but he was last beaten 57L and he needs something to happen to the other two to win.

It really is saying something when the 2nd highest rated horse in the race is one who won a weak mares maiden last time. That was at Barbury in December and she did win very easily, but the other fancied horses all disappointed and the 2nd was a 50/1 shot. She had shown ability having finished a close 2nd in two point bumpers in the 2019 season and she finished 2nd in the same race she won this season last season. A horse called Lady Sally beat her that day and she has gone under rules since. She actually runs at Bangor tomorrow and is currently rated 97 and has shown the odd glimmer of promise, but most of her runs she hasn't run anywhere near that mark so I wouldn't want to say that So Socksy would be able to run to a mark that high. She unseated on her next start and then in her only run so far over 3m she ran very poorly when pulling up. It was probably too bad to be true, but it does mean that the trip is an unknown. With the mares allowance and the jockey's claim she does get a stone from Chase Me. She's unexposed, but her level of form so far is a long way behind Cash Me's.

I never thought I would see the day where Chase Me was favourite for a hunter chase. His pointing form is solid having won 5 on the bounce from finally losing his maiden tag 2 years ago to dead heating at Chaddesley Corbett in December. He wouldn't have won his last point at Maisemore 2 weeks ago, but that was a strong race and he ran with credit until he unseated at 2 out. He's never looked like winning a hunter chase so far although he didn't run too badly in the John Corbet Cup in 2019 or at Stratford last March. You look at the winners of those hunter chases though and you realise that this contest is a million miles away from those. He has won twice on good to firm ground so that isn't an issue and he won't get a better opportunity to win a hunter chase. Zac Baker goes back on board after riding the winning of the Maisemore race last time and it's hard to see how he doesn't win. If this was a point I reckon he would be at least 1/3 and even at his current odds he looks value.

Chase Me 4pts @ 8/11 with Betfred