trying to create my own odds for horse racing

[themoo500]

Hi everyone,

I'm trying to create my own odds for horse racing strictly based off of a cominbation of RPR and OR ratings (sort of a combination of the two). I'm not great with maths unfortunately but i was wondering if anyone has a website or a bit of guide on how to do that (obviously I will manually adjust in head depending on certain criteria but i'm looking for a very simple base line as to what a horses odds shoud be just based off the ratings)?

Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

[MCLARKE]

Welcome @themoo500. Not really my area but there may be some on here who can help.

[themoo500]

thanks. hopefully someone has some insight for sure. 

 

[The Brigadier]

1 hour ago, themoo500 said:

Hi everyone,

I'm trying to create my own odds for horse racing strictly based off of a cominbation of RPR and OR ratings (sort of a combination of the two). I'm not great with maths unfortunately but i was wondering if anyone has a website or a bit of guide on how to do that (obviously I will manually adjust in head depending on certain criteria but i'm looking for a very simple base line as to what a horses odds shoud be just based off the ratings)?

Any help would be greatly appreciated. 

Hi themoo500,

welcome, there’s a thread on the ‘at the races’ forum I started called ‘pricing your own race’ that might help you.

[themoo500]

great tnx I'll go hunt it down and give it a read.

 

Regards

[Benchley]

This is what I use:

CALCULATING ODDS FROM RATINGS

To calculate the percentage chance of each horse in a race allot the bottom rated runner a value of 1. From this the values for the other horses may be calculated. Take the 3.25 at Hamilton, August 22, 2000 as rated by compiler Nigel Taylor, Formcast of the Daily Mail.

Bottom rated Shatin Playboy. 48 = 1 (1 divided by 67 = .01493 = 66/1)
Next best rating Blue Forest. 62 = (62 – 48 +1) = 15 (15/67 = .22388 = 100/30)
Third rated is Millikin Park. 67 = (67 – 48 +1) = 20 (20/67 = .31343 = 9/4)
Top Rated is Alinga . 78 = (78 – 48 +1) = 31 (31/67 = .46269 = 6/5) 
Royal Wanderer(not rated)

Total the individual values = 67 and divide each rating by the total, as shown in the second set of brackets. Then check the resulting figure against the field money table to obtain the odds. If the ratings reflect the chances correctly then the final odds will be ‘fair’ odds; that is no advantage to either side. 

The odds calculated will only be correct if the ratings truly reflect the abilities of the runners, indicating that you need to use the most accurate ratings available. The higher ratings representing the shorter odds tend to be nearer the mark that those at longer odds. Ratings on the Racing Post site or in the press such as Daily Mirror, Daily Mail are cheap, consistent and readily available, even Topspeed or Adrian Massey if you want to use SF. However, if more accurate ratings can be found it would obviously be better to use them instead. You should be aware that the odds calculated just reflect the opinion of the ratings compiler.

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by Benchley

[The Accountant]

From my own view its a lot of work daily that others, who have been at it longer, made and have learned from their mistakes etc would be better for you to look towards. That's my 2p worth anyway. I've been at it for around 20 years and I'm still tweeking and learning on an ongoing basis.