Hunter Chase - 5.10 Leicester

[Darran]

Hands up I made a mistake by over complicating the Catterick race on Wednesday. I should have been more trusting on Cousin Pascal's Leicester 2nd as he was on odds on shot on that form. What was a bit frustrating was his trainer went on the pointing form not long before the race to explain the reason why he disappointed at Alnwick was that he travelled to the track poorly and had suffered a long journey. Once you had a reason for that disappointment it was easier to want to back him on Wednesday. He duly bolted up whilst the two I put up ran poorly. King Of The Clothe has run well enough in 2nd although he strikes me as a horse that will stick to pointing once it starts again at the end of the month. Dr Kananga was really well backed at big odds and ran with credit before tiring and finishing 3rd. The form clearly isn't strong, but the winner had any amount in hand.

Tango De Juilley heads the betting for the 2m contest at Leicester this afternoon and whilst you will be worried that last weeks effort might have left a mark given he's a 13yo who hadn't run for 4 years, his form is miles clear of anything else in the race. It was a superb effort to push Cat Tiger so close last week and he will be looking to qualify for Aintree here only having to finish in the 1st 4 to do so. 2m in testing ground shouldn't be an issue and he ought to be hard to beat.

Dale Peters has already landed 1 hunter chase with a newcomer from Ireland this season and he has another one here who has been running in points over there early in the season. He was running well enough in opens having looked on the downgrade before then. This trip ought to be fine and he has joined a good trainer.

Clondaw Westie has his conditions for the first time this this season as he loves the mud as he showed when winning at Ffos Las a year ago. I said before his run at Musselburgh that it seemed a strange one that connections were running him over 3m3f as he didn't look like he would stay and so it turned out. He now drops right back in trip to 2m and he ought to be capable of showing better than he did against Porlock Bay at Kimble on quick ground and last time.

Killiney Court is one of those runners that will benefit from being ridden by a pro jockey from the one who was riding him in points. The other key with him is he clearly doesn't stay 3m. This trip looks ideal for him based on his rules form in Ireland so it's easy to think we will see an improvement on his pointing form. He has been a drifter this morning.

Simon Cross runs two who have both been off for a long time. Matorico has been off for 1082 days and Oliver's Hill 432 days. Both have the back class to run well in this, but it's hard to think either will be up to that and the latter always wanted good ground.

An Scairp has seen plenty of money at big prices and I can sort of understand it as the 2nd to Southfield Theatre at Higham a year ago would give him a place chance. The ground looks to be an issue though and I'm not sure we have seen enough in his two hunter chase efforts including at Ludlow last time. 

I wrote most of the above last night and this paragraph was where I discussed Argot's chances and he was the one horse in the race I thought was over priced. Annoyingly he is now a non-runner.

Tango De Juilley is the right price and he ought to win so there doesn't really seem to be any value in trying to take him on. There is a bit of guesswork needed with the next 3 in the betting with Clondaw Westie needing the drop in trip and the return to heavy ground to to work, Peacocks Secret you are mainly relying on the trainer and Killiney Court you are relying on the jockey switch and the drop in trip. I don't exactly feel strongly on any of them and can understand why at the time of writing they are around the same price. I was going to put up a bet on Argot, but now he is a non-runner I am not currently recommending a bet on the race. I will keep an eye on the markets and see if any opportunity arises and will update the thread if there is.