Hunter Chase - 3.50 Ludlow

[Darran]

A look back at yesterday's action first which was very profitable to continue the good run. Alcala had a pretty simple task in the end with Looking Well not really performing anywhere near his best. Point The Way ran a lot better when pulling up behind the winner last time, but it's pretty weak form really.

Captain Buck's was very much on a going day as he always looked the winner. I think this was the better of the two performances at Musselburgh. It was a shame to see Absainte come down because she was going to finish 2nd and it would have meant that every bet would have been a winner. She deserves to win one of these because she has bumped into some useful rivals so far in hunter chases and this was probably a personal best. Dark Mahler was well backed and landed e/w money for coming 2nd and was obviously a step up on what he had shown so far this season. Six A Side never really threatened and he came 3rd, whilst Bletchley Castle made it a strong pace, but had nothing left after 4 out.

What a ride by Bryony Frost on Caid Du Berlais at Wincanton. I think everyone probably expected Dashing Perk to make the running, but Bryony made sure that he didn't get the chance to by being very aggressive early on. As we have seen over the years Bryony is very good from the front and when you know your horse stays a bit further than this she knew she was likely to get away with it. He put in some great leaps on the way round and he never looked like getting beat. He has been entered at Cheltenham, but after his last two efforts in the race that did surprise me. Clearly he can be a player at Punchestown though and surely his campaign should be based around that. Golden Tobouggan landed the e/w support that had happened the night before and to be fair it was a hell of an effort and a big step up from his Maisemore win. He can surely win a hunter chase after this effort. Dashing Perk somehow ended up going off favourite in the end and he's run a solid race in 3rd. If he finds a race where he can get to the front then I am sure he will be winning.

Onto today's race and it is one of the more competitive ones we have had so far this season. The important thing though is I want to be against the front two in the market. We all know that Nicholls can get one ready after a lay off so the fact Copain De Classe has been off for 2 years isn't a concern, but the trip has to be a big one. He's never been anywhere near this far before and it isn't even as if he was really good before. His last win came over 2m2f at Kempton in October 2018 off 130 and he is currently off 127. To me if Nicholls thought he was well handicapped he would have gone down that route and there are some useful horses in this. I'm not saying he can't win, but he is a shocking price all things considered.

Another horse who is a shocking price is Maitree Express. How on earth a maiden winner is shorter than hunter chase and open winners I don't know. The horse who beat him at Kimble was 3rd next time and although he finally broke his maiden at Larkhill in December chances are it wasn't a strong race and certainly nothing like this. I can't have him at all and is clearly priced up by the fact he is in the Waley-Cohen colours.

Dieu Vivant won this race last year although he didn't really have much to beat in the end with the Evs money favourite unseating and the 6/4 2nd in disappointing. He did run well in a handicap here last week when finishing 2nd off 124 and that brings him right into this. The concern I have is that anytime he has been on ground quicker than soft he has been a big disappointment. That is enough for me to pass him over, but again he could easily win this.

Miss Seagreen ran well behind Hazel Hill in the opening hunter chase of the season and that was on the back of beating Captain Bucks at Larkhill. She made a bad mistake at the water last time and that didn't help her cause. Also the ground was a massive worry about her that day so the fact she will have quicker ground here should be a big plus. She is a big player for me.

Diamond King won a bad hunter chase at Worcester in May 2019 and was well beaten in his only start last season at Cocklebarrow. I find it hard to see him being good enough to win this even though the jockey change is a big plus.

Master Dancer has won on the flat, over hurdles and in a point, but this is his first try over rules fences. He had decent enough form over hurdles and his two point runs were solid last season. First of all Silsol beat him and then he won a novice riders race. I'd be a bit surprised if he was good enough to win this, but I can see him running well enough.

Trio For Rio had become a bit disappointing for Warren Greatrex, but on his first pointing start for his new trainer he ran really well to finish a close 3rd to Salvatore at Larkhill in December. That race was won in a quicker time than Miss Seagreen's race on the same card and they carried 21lbs more than she did. That run makes him a big player for me here.

Fishy Story has won 9 of his 19 point starts, but I would be a bit surprised if he was up to this. One who I do think is over priced though is Garde Ville. Granted there is a concern that he will bounce, but as I wrote at the time I thought he ran a really promising race against Bob And Co at Haydock. There is every chance he blew up in what was obviously a very strong contest, but he would have finished a creditable 4th if allowed to complete the race. The last couple of seasons he has been in action (he missed 2020) he has come on massively for his seasonal return so that also bodes well. 

Given I think the front two in the betting are there to be taken on with I am going to put up 3 against them. First of all Miss Seagreen will surely go close on this better ground as she should be able to build on the course and distance run from last time. I think Garde Ville is the most over priced horse in the race and hopefully he doesn't bounce as I think he is capable of hitting the frame here. I am also backing Time For Rio as his Larkhill run makes him a player and he also looks over priced to me.

Miss Seagreen 1.5pts @ 7/2 with most bookies

Garde Ville 0.75pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill

Time For Rio 0.5pts e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill

NB this was written last night to be posted this morning so it was written before the Nicholls horse came out.

[Darran]

Can't believe both the horses I was desperate to oppose have now become non-runners. So frustrating that.

[The Equaliser]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

Can't believe both the horses I was desperate to oppose have now become non-runners. So frustrating that.

Thanks for the winner. Will have to look for the "hunters chase" category instead of under "racing chat" in the future.  I'm a bad web site navigator

 

[Darran]

After a frustrating start to the season with a lot of 2nd places things have really picked in the last 2/3 weeks. We have now had 19 races of the season and 11 of the last 13 races where there have been bets have shown a profit (there was one unofficial bet which did also show a small profit). So far I have staked 40pts and there is a profit of 40.83pts. That's a really strong position to be in at this stage of the season and given how tough last season was at this stage I am more than happy. There is now a break until Catterick next Wednesday, but I will look back at yesterday's race first.

Obviously it was frustrating the two horses I didn't think had a chance were withdrawn as they were both helping to make the market, but the thing that matters was the fact there was a decent profit on the race. Both Trio For Rio and Garde Ville were well backed and the former ran out a really impressive winner. He was always up on the pace and bar a mistake 5 out there wasn't really a moments worry. I think the form is useful enough and there was talk of Cheltenham's hunter chase night after the race which seems like a sensible target. It was a big boost to Salvatore's form and I now think he is the stables main hope of their 3 entries at Cheltenham.

Garde Ville got a bit out paced, but stayed on well down the straight to get himself into 2nd place. He couldn't get near the winner and then jumped the last very big and held on for 2nd by a length. He probably isn't quite as good as he was when he won the John Corbet, but it was good to see that he didn't bounce from the Haydock effort. You also have to say it was a boost to the form of Bob And Co.

I said before the race that Diamond King's jockey switch was a huge plus for him and the 13yo ran a cracker. Even with his usual jockey on he would have a chance in one of these based on this effort. Master Dance probably wants a slightly shorter trip, but again I think he's run a good race. Dieu Vivant was given a bit of an odd ride as he was held up in last for a fair way. He got himself into some sort of contention leaving the back, but he certainly never looked like winning. He wasn't far behind the 2nd in 5th in the end, but I just wonder if he is going to continue to be a frustrating type and as I said in the preview this race fell apart last year.

Miss Seagreen was a big disappointment and there wasn't an obvious reason behind it. It doesn't exactly do much for the Hazel Hill form though and as I mention above Salvatore to me looks the stables main hope for Cheltenham although hard to know if they will run more than one.