Racing Chat Saturday Nov 28th

[The Brigadier]

One of National Hunt’s best Saturday’s is nearly upon us with the Newbury Ladbroke Trophy meeting at Newbury where with no rain forecast the ground is likely to ride unseasonably good for the time of year. 

We start the card with the 12.10 and a decent Mares listed hurdle where the most likely winner is Mrs Hyde who took the scalp of Verdana Blue at Wetherby and certainly won’t mind conditions. I’m not entirely convinced Verdana Blue is as good as she once was and with Mrs Hyde carrying a penalty I’ll be looking for some each way value elsewhere. Down at the bottom of the card is the Irish challenger POLITESSE, trained by Mrs Lorna Fowler and ridden by Robbie Power she’s smart having won a bumper, novice hurdle and running a highly promising 5^th in a Grade 3 hurdle on her re-appearance where but for a bad blunder would have been placed. She’ll do for me each way against the likely favourite.

 

POLITESSE 1 point each way @ 4/1betvictor

 

Kalooki and Next Destination look the pair to concentrate in the 12.40 and with Kalooki having had the experience of winning at the track three weeks ago (2^nd won since) I just favour over Next Destination who makes his fencing debut here but has some excellent hurdle form to his name. Hold That Note wouldn’t be far behind the big two and cant be easily dismissed. 

KALOOKI 1 point win @ 11/4 betvictor

 

The 1.15 looks wide open with many having claims. JP McManus runs four here with perhaps Kapcorse being the most interesting having won this event by 10 lengths two years ago off of a 10lb lower mark but he has a 644 day absence to overcome. Court Master appeals each way – he ran credibly in a decent novice handicap chase at the course three weeks ago and is at the right end of the handicap. Plenty of others can be given a chance but I’ll stick with Michael Scudamore’s 7 year old. 

COURT MASTER ½ point each way @ 9/1 betfred

 

One horse stands out in the next race – the 2m4f118yds handicap hurdle- Tom Lacey’s improver Tea Clipper who won cosily at Chepstow 7 weeks ago and despite a 7lb rise bounces off of good ground and will be hard to beat. Runner up to him at Chepstow that day was the Skelton’s Flash the Steel who re-opposes on 4lb better terms for a 2 1/4l beating so can make the frame. Nicky Henderson runs three with Champagne Platinum the most interesting. He blatantly failed to stay when last seen and he didn’t really convince last season as a chaser so back over the smaller obstacles here could be in his favour. On The Wild Side is a novice in his first handicap for Dr Newland and is also espected but for me it’s all about Tea Clipper on his favoured ground. 

TEA CLIPPER 2 points win @ 11/4 bet365

 

The 2.25 will always be known as the Gerry Feilden despite been re-named by sponsors Ladbrokes. Nicky Henderson ran Epatante in this last year when she blew the opposition away and ended up winning the Xmas Hurdle & Champion Hurdle so his representative Maries Rock has something to live up to here. She is unbeaten in a bumper and two novice hurdles impressing each time and was touted as a genuine Mares hurdle contender before her setback, this is what her trainer had to say about her in recent Racing Post Trainer file “She missed her big day in the mares' novice at Cheltenham after a stress fracture, which wasn't serious. She's summered well, has an enormous engine and is exciting. We've tinkered with her soft palate and hopefully she's top class”. No wonder why she’s been backed from as big as 4/1 at the 5 day declaration stage to her current odds of 6/4. She’ll be hard to beat off of 141 which incidentally is 3lb higher than Epatante ran off in this race last year. There’s some lovely animals in opposition mind including Botox Has a winner at Cheltenham already this season, Sebastopol who’s held in high regard by his trainer Tom Lacey, Milkwood who’s 4^th in the Welsh Champion Hurdle looks a very good piece of form and Thyme White who’s been put up 11lb for his Chepstow romp. An outsider who looks overpriced is Seamus Mullins’ The Pink’n. She was 4l 2^nd to Botox Has at Cheltenham and is now 4lb better off and then 3l behind Thyme White at Chepstow and now 5lb better off. Both Botox Has and Thyme White are priced around the 6/1 mark whilst The Pink’n is over three times the price a around the 20/1 mark. I’ll play Maries Rock to win and The Pink’n small ew. 

MARIES ROCK (below) 2 points win @ 7/4 betvictor

THE PINK’N ½ point each way @ 22/1 betvictor

 

I’ve dealt with the Ladbrokes Trophy earlier in the week and with the ground as predicted I’m happy enough to be on Secret Investor at 16/1 and The Black Op at 8/1. If you like Secret Investor mind you have to have an interest in Alan King’s Potterman who chased Secret Investor home at Chepstow and was just touched off in the Badger Beers Chase at Wincanton since. It’s a cracking race and lets just hope all 18 come back safely. One thing I would add is to shop around for the best place terms as most firms will be paying enhanced place terms. 

SECRET INVESTOR 1point e/w @ 16/1 (advised on Monday)

BLACK OP 1point ew @ 8/1 (advised on Monday)

POTTERMAN ½ point each way @ 20/1 betvictor

 

The finale is the 3.35, a handicap chase for The Jim Joel Memorial Chase Trophy. Top weight Moonlighter ran a stormer on his re-appearance when running Graneteen a close 2^nd in the Haldon Gold Cup. The winner is set to take on the best 2 milers in the land next weekend at Sandown and despite a 5lb weight rise he should run well. Western Miller was a long way back in 2^nd behind the rejuvenated Rouge Vif at Cheltenham last time whilst Ibleo ran a close 2^nd at Ascot first time out but all his form is on very soft ground so it’s anyone’s guess how he’ll handle livelier conditions here. A bit of value for me can be had with the Philip Hobb’s trained Zanza who ran here three times as a hurdler winning twice and finishing a close up 6^th in last season’s Betfair Hurdle. He’s only had the two runs this season over fences but both times behind some decent types (2^nd to Allmankind at Warwick last time) and should be ready too strike now with the Hobbs team in better form than earlier in the season. 

ZANZA 1 point each way @ 7/1 bet365

 

 

[Wildgarden]

715 Wolverhampton aasda 9/4 bet365 win

Deserved favourite should still be knocking the door and should get through after 2nd lto 4 days ago from what I see.

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2020 by Wildgarden