Racing Chat - Saturday 13th November

[Darran]

Saturday sees the final day of the Spring Carnival in Melbourne with plenty of Group action at Sandown. In NSW the main action is at Newcastle where the million dollar Hunter is the feature. With the end of the Spring Carnival I am going to make this my final Australian preview for now. The original intention was to do them just well there was no racing in the UK, but it went well so I carried on and it made sense to cover the spring action. There will probably still be the odd tip from time to time but with the hunter chase season not too far away I want to take a break. Tomorrow I have bets in 6 races.

Sandown R5 (3.30am)

Kenya went off favourite for the 2018 Cambridgeshire, but he finished last. Clearly something was up that on what was his final start for Aidan O'Brien. He wasn't seen again until June when he went off joint favourite for a handicap at Flemington. Although he finished 10th he wasn't beaten that far and he was then spelled. He returned at Mornington at the start of the month and he looked good when making all to win. He was a G3 winner as a 2yo, finished 2nd in a G2 at Leopardstown and won the Irish Cambridgeshire. The win last time suggests he has the ability he had in Ireland still and he can land this G3 contest.

Kenya @ 7/5 with Bet365

Sandown R7 (4.45am)

The Sandown Cup is over 3200m and there are a couple I like here. Sin To Win won for the first time in a long time on Melbourne Cup day and he did it in good style. This race is tougher, but he's been in good form and is 1/1 at the trip. The fact we know he stays is a crucial one for me. The other one I like is top weight and ex-French runner San Huberto. He landed a G2 over 3000m at Chantilly in June and certainly has the class to land this contest. His first run in Australia was in the Geelong Cup and he only beat one home, but that wasn't a surprise given he was a big drifter and the trip would have been on the short side for him. He's better than he showed there and looks over priced.

Sin To Win @ 3/1 with Bet365

San Huberto e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill

Sandown R8 (5.25am)

Onto the G2 Zipping Classic next and I have to go with Future Score. I thought they might have run him in the Sandown Cup, but connections have San Huberto for that so have run him here instead. I thought he was unlucky not to win the Hotham last time. Although the winner Ashrun had to come from further back, he was able to get up some speed whereas Future Score couldn't get a run and he finished strongly once he did get a gap. If he gets a gap sooner for me he wins the race. He is the main bet, but I have to cover the favourite Avilius. At his best he is the best horse in the race and although he hasn't won for a while he has been in pretty good form for most of this prep. I'd ignore the Melbourne Cup run last time as he was always out the back, but the Caulfield Cup run was a good one as he didn't get much luck in running. I have to have him onside.

Future Score @ 4/1 with Bet365

Avilius @ 3/1 with Bet365

Sandown R9 (6.05am)

Gold Fields is better off with All Too Huiying based on their Seymour Cup 1st and 2nd last month and he then finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Listed Race on Melbourne Cup day. That came over today's trip so although he has never won over this far he is clearly capable of doing so. The other one I like is West Wind. She is coming back down in trip, but she is in flying form at the moment having won her last 3. I thought she was especially impressive at Moonee Valley last time and the 2nd has won a G2 since so the form is rock solid. If she copes with the drop down in trip she has a big chance for me.

Gold Fields @ 5/1 with Bet365

West Wind @ 13/2 with Bet365

Newcastle R4 (3.50am)

Yes he has top weight in this BM72, but he does look a class above. He was racing in the winter and running well enough on heavy tracks, but his best form is on good tracks. His 1st run of the prep was his first start on a dry track for a while and he ran a very good 4th over 1000m. He didn't get a clear run either as he didn't get a gap until 200m out and if he gets a gap sooner he is likely to have won the race. I think he can atone her.

Superium @ 9/4 with William Hill

Newcastle R7 (5.45am) 

The feature race on the card and whilst Ranier was tempting I have gone for Trumbull instead. He was running so consistently last prep and got a deserved win when landing a Listed Race in June at Rosehill. He improved on that 1st up this prep when winning a G3 at Randwick last month. The 1st 2 pulled clear of the rest and stepping up to 1300m is going to suit as well. The draw could have been better, but on the back of that last effort I think he can land this massive prize.

Trumbull @ 9/2 with Bet365

[Villa Chris]

2.15 Cheltenham, Simply The Betts 9/2

2.15 Cheltenham, Siruh Du Lac 12/1 ew

2.50 Cheltenham, On The Blind Side  5/1

3.25 Cheltenham, Kepagge 6/1

Double 17/1 Cheltenham 

Siruh Du Lac has a lot going for him. I expect On The Blind Side to run a big race even though he’s known as a chaser now. Couldn’t ignore him at that price. Kepagge is open to more progress and will appreciate the rain. 
 

Edited post because Tea Clipper non runner. Single bet added with simply the Betts . It’s also effected my ew play with On The Blindside who’s now a straight win bet . 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Villa Chris