Racing Chat - Saturday 7th November

[Darran]

It is the final day of the Melbourne Cup carnival at Flemington with 2 G1's on the card as well as UK and Irish interest. I have 5 bets there and a couple in Sydney at Rosehill.

Flemington R4 (3.15am)

I like Right You Are in this contest who looks a progressive horse. He is 1st up, but he is 2/2 over 1600m and has won 4 of his 7 starts. Indeed he has never finished outside of the first 3. I really like his 2nd to Persan two starts back and that horse finished 5th in the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday. This looks a good starting point for him.

Right You Are @ 9/4 with Bet365

Flemington R5 (3.55am)

The Queen Elizabeth Stakes sees plenty of horses who didn't make the cut for the Melbourne Cup run over 2600m. I think it can go the same way as the Cup as well as Joseph O'Brien's Pondus looks to have an excellent chance. He ran a huge race in the Bendigo Cup having been drawn in 15 and passing the 400m marker he still only had 3 behind him. To finish a short head 2nd to the winner was a huge effort and he can go one better. I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Chapada who I think is the leading home contender. He won the Herbert Power 2 starts back and I thought he ran well in the Caulfield Cup where the jockey admitted he went too soon on him. 

Pondus @ 11/8 with William Hill

Chapada e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Flemington R6 (4.35am)

If Nature Strip wins this I am going to be fuming, but I just can't tip him up again on the back of the Everest run. He does have a good record at Flemington and maybe he wasn't quite over his issue ahead of the run in the Everest, but it was a disappointing effort. Instead I am going with Bivouac who was 2nd in the Everest and the form has worked out really well as you would expect. He won the Newmarket over course and distance earlier in the year and he looks the one to beat.

Bivouac @ 23/10 with Bet365

Flemington R7 (5.15am)

Competitive G2 for the mares and I am going to go with Toffee Tongue. She has only won once, but that came in the G1 Schweppes Oaks at Morphettville in May. She was keen in the Caulfield Cup last time, but the time before she was only beaten a short head to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and she should be involved in the finish here.

Toffee Tongue @ 13/2 with Betfair

Flemington R8 (6am)

The 2nd G1 on the card is the Mackinnon Stakes and as much as I like Mugatoo's claims I am going to side with Arcadia Queen who was one place behind him in the Cox Plate last time. Neither had a great run during the race, but Arcadia Queen nearly fell 1000m from home and without that I think she would have finished in front of Mugatoo. Prior to that she had returned to form when beating Russian Camelot to win the Caulfield Stakes. Melody Belle was 2nd in this last year, but had been out of form prior to going back to New Zealand. She won two G1's last month though so seems to have found her form again and will be a danger.

Arcadia Queen @ 2/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R5 (4.15am)

This looks a good race for Stockman who has finished 1st or 2nd on 7 of his 10 starts. He thrives on a heavy track which he looks certain to get and was a fast finishing 2nd over 1400m here last week. The 7 day back up shouldn't be a concern as he won off a 9 day back up in May and the step up in trip will suit.

Stockman @ 15/8 with William Hill

Rosehill R8 (6.20am)

I put Greek Hero up last week but he was scratched on the morning of the race. As I mentioned last week he raced on the wrong side of the track on his last start in June and the form is strong as well. The slight concern is the trip, but I still think he is capable of going close and is one to follow going forward.

Greek Hero @ 15/2 with Bet365 (Has been scratched again)

[richard-westwood]

Time to get some xmas spending money.   

315 donc november hcap 

Rhythmic intent 313

Tulip fields  310 

Massively wide open 23 runner hcap ....but these 2 are a fair few points ahead and huge prices....will need some extreme luck but could the xmas bonus be coming ??

Rhythmic intent 10pt ew 22/1 7places sky

Tulip fields 10pt ew 12/1 7 places sky