Spread Betting Sells (90 day hunt)

[harry_rag]

For the sheer fun of it! All bets will be spread betting sells that look "particularly interesting" (as opposed to more "routine" bets). So a sample of my actual bets and all carrying real money (level stakes).

For the purpose of the thread I'm starting with a bank of 500 points and continuing until the bank is exhausted or tripled, or I run out of days! (90 days from today takes us up to 22nd January.)

Starting stake is 1 point. When the bank reaches 600 points stakes will increase to 1.1 points (think £1 rising to £1.10). Stakes stay at that level until bank reaches 700 points (increase to 1.2 points) or falls back to 500 points (revert to 1 point). And so on when bank grows or falls back to a 100 point threshold.

Obviously you're all perfectly familiar with the concept of spread betting so I'll just crack on. the first bet is a sell of Montpellier hotshots for 1 point at 56 as posted already in the RU thread. So far I've posted 7 "interesting" bets in there with 6 winning for an overall profit of 117 points. I'm not sure I can maintain that sort of strike rate in here but I'm pretty sure that the bank should survive the 90 days and it's perhaps a shade odds on to finish up rather than down. Past results suggest that tripling the bank is a stretch, but more likely than losing it.

 

[harry_rag]

Over the pond now for a couple of sells of player touch down minutes in tonight's NFL games. I've sold 5 players in total but these 2 look strong enough to put up in here.

Sell Derrick Henry TD minutes for 1 point at 30 with SPIN (Tennessee Titans)

Sell Chris Carson TD minutes for 1 point at 30 with SPIN (Seattle Seahawks)

Player touchdown minutes are the aggregate time of all touchdowns scored by the player in question so I'm hoping they either don't score one or do so very early on then take the rest of the night off! A last quarter hat trick is the costly and unwanted outcome.

[harry_rag]

1 of everything yesterday, Carson fails to score a TD for a maximum profit of 30 points but a 50th minute TD for Henry yields a 20 point loss. 1 try for the Montpellier hotshots means a make up of 25 and a partial profit of 31 points.

So a reasonable start of 2 from 3 and a 41 point profit. Bank up by 8.2% and an ROI of 35.34%.

I'm using an "inverse" ROI here. Put simply the ROI is calculated as a % of the total amount I could've won (rather than lost) if every bet made up at 0. Put another way, it's the inverse of the bookies' return on my bets (so +10% equates to them having an ROI of -10%).

The reason for that is it's much easier to calculate an ROI for buying than selling. A buy at 30 can be regarded as 30 points staked in the same way as 30 points on a fixed odds bet. A sell at 30 has an unknown downside so it's impossible to determine a stake. When I sell, the bookie becomes the buyer hence they have the easily determined ROI. It's the best measure I can think of for these sort of bets and I'd be anticipating a return of around 12% in the long run.

[harry_rag]

Munster v Cardiff: Sell Munster hotshots for 1 point at 37 with SPIN (Calvin Nash, Dan Goggin, Rory Scannell, Darren Sweetnam)

SX go 29-33 with Haley instead of Scannell but there's little apparent difference between the value of the 2 players. I get a notional value of just over 30 for a perceived edge of just over 18% so a better than average looking sell proposition.

[harry_rag]

23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Munster v Cardiff: Sell Munster hotshots for 1 point at 37 with SPIN (Calvin Nash, Dan Goggin, Rory Scannell, Darren Sweetnam)

Made up at 0 for the maximum return of +37 points.

3 winners from 4 bets and a 78 point profit. Bank up by 15.6% and an ROI of 50.98%.

[harry_rag]

Pumas v Sharks: Sell Pumas hotshots for 1 point at 38 with SPIN (Devon Williams, Neil Maritz, Wayne VD Bank, Etienne Taljaard)

SX go 34-38 which would make for a spread free trade if the hotshots were the same but they have the more valuable (based on try mins prices) Cronje in for Bank. I make these 4 worth just over 31 for a perceived edge of just over 17%.

Also sold Sharks hotshots for 1 point at 57  (Manie Libbok, Sbu Nkosi, Lukhanyo Am, Madosh Tambwe)

SX go 53-57 for the same quartet so a genuinely spread free trade (can buy or sell at the same price, equivalent to a 100% book in fixed odds terms). Worth around 49 on my assessment for almost a 14% edge.

[harry_rag]

Brive v Clermont: Sell Clermont hotshots for 1 point at 35 with SPIN (Cheikh Tiberghien, Kotaro Matsushima, JP Barraque, Tim N Williams)

SX go 30-34 with Betham instead of Barraque. That doesn't make a huge difference to the "true" value but I'd say SX's price is in the right ballpark while SPIN's is too high. I get just over 29 so looking at a 16% edge.

[harry_rag]

A net profit of 30 points yesterday takes the overall profit to 108 so next stake will be 1.1 points. 2 winners and a loser, returns of +38, -18 and +10 respectively.

First bet for today is Dragons v Munster: sell Munster hotshots for 1.1 points at 35 with SPIN (Calvin Nash, Damian de Allende, Darren Sweetnam, Gavin Coombes)

SX go 31-35 for the same players so another example of a "spread free" trade. I get a true value of no more than 28 and an edge of around 21%.

[harry_rag]

Pau v La Rochelle: Sell Pau hotshots for 1 point at 32 with SPIN  (Hugo Bonneval, Vincent Pinto, Eliott Roudil, Jale Vatubua)

SX go 28-32 with Lebail rather than Bonneville but not much in it bewteen the value those two add. I get a true value of just over 25 so, again, an edge of around 21%.

[harry_rag]

Just now, harry_rag said:

Pau v La Rochelle: Sell Pau hotshots for 1.1 points at 32 with SPIN  (Hugo Bonneval, Vincent Pinto, Eliott Roudil, Jale Vatubua)

Still getting used to the new staking level!

[harry_rag]

Both bets made up at 25 yesterday for the minimum profit of 10 x stake and 7 x stake. Total profit for the day was 18.7 points meaning current standings are as follows.

7 winners from 9 bets and a 126.7 point profit. Bank up by 25.34% and an ROI of 36.2%.

[harry_rag]

Cardiff v Ulster: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1.1 points at 36 with SPIN  (Craig Gilroy, Stuart McCloskey, Louis Ludik, John Cooney)

33-37 elsewhere so not quite a spread free trade but even at that price it looks a bit high to me. I get just shy of 30 so an edge of nearly 17%. Good enough for me based on my experience.

[harry_rag]

Last night's bet made up at zero for the maximum profit of 36 x stake, current standings are as follows.

8 winners from 10 bets and a 166.3 point profit. Bank up by 33.26% and an ROI of 41.96%.

ROI was slightly out in the last update as the spreadsheet needed updating to reflect the increased stake. It should've read 35.52%.

[harry_rag]

Toulon v Brive: Sell Toulon hotshots for 1.1 points at 46 with SPIN (Gervais Cordin,Daniel Ikpefan,Isaia Toeava,Erwan Dridi)

SX are 5 points lower with the slightly more valuable Dakuwaqa instead of Toeava. I get a true value of 37.2 and a 19% edge.

[harry_rag]

Last bet made up at 75 for a loss of 29 x stake. One so far for today.

Toulouse v Castres: Sell Toulouse hotshots for 1.1 points at 42 with SX (Maxime Medard, Yoann Huget, Sofiane Guitoune, Matthis Lebel)

A relatively rare example of me taking issue with a price offered by that firm to the extent that it's worth posting in here (for my avid readership)! 

They're 5 points higher than elsewhere and 6 points higher than my "true" valuation for an edge of 14%.

[harry_rag]

 Made up at 0 for a profit of 42 x stake. Full update after the weekend.

[harry_rag]

Current standings are 9 winners from 12 bets and a 180.6 point profit. Bank up by 36.12% and an ROI of 36.63%.

[harry_rag]

Indianapolis @ Tennessee: Sell Henry TD mins for 1.1 points at 32 with SPIN

5 points better price than elsewhere, you can get battered when a player springs into life late on but, by the same token, the guy can score an early brace and you can still show a profit. It's all about the grind in the long term.

[harry_rag]

No TD for Henry so max profit of 32 x stake.

Current standings are 10 winners from 13 bets and a 215.8 point profit. Bank up by 43.16% and an ROI of 40.85%

Stake rises to 1.2 points.

[harry_rag]

New Zealand v Argentina: Sell New Zealand hotshots for 1.2 points at 60 with SPIN (Beauden Barrett, Jordie Barrett, Caleb Clarke, Richie Mo'unga)

A spread free trade as the same quartet are 56-60 with SX. An usual scenario here with both firms offering the same players at what seems a wrong price. The most I can make these players worth is 52 which makes for almost a 14% edge. Taking the "true" value of 47 it becomes an edge of 21.5%. Or that's the theory! Put it this way, if the try minutes prices are about right then the hotshots quotes are far too high, or it could be the other way round. Experience tells me the right thing to do is pull the trigger on a sell of the hotshots.

[harry_rag]

Same game, sell New Zealand substitute try minutes for 1.2 points at 87 with SPIN.

81-88 elsewhere so almost a spread free price. The track record for high sells in this market (anything over 60) is pretty impressive. Hopefully this one follows the trend!

[Labrador]

Two excellent sells - would have been a clean sweep but for Clarke's try at the death? .

 

 

[harry_rag]

Cheers, a nice return of 122 x stake.

Current standings are 12 winners from 15 bets and a 362.2 point profit. Bank up by 72.44% and an ROI of 51.4%

Stake rises to 1.3 points.

A lot of luck I suspect with the strike rate in here. Probably running at around 4 x better than the typical return. So fully expect a couple of 200+ make ups somewhere along the way!

[harry_rag]

As per the All Blacks, even more so for England v Georgia.

Sell England hotshots for 1.3 points at 81 with SPIN (Elliot Daly, Jonathan Joseph, Henry Slade, Jonny May) and their subs try mins for 1.3 points at the generally available at 122.

I get the true value for the hotshots as 64 and the highest I can get them to is 70. Couldn't be a clearer sell in this market, win or lose. As for the sub try minutes, not often you'll see a price so deep into nosebleed territory.

[harry_rag]

Bay of Plenty v North Harbour: Sell Bay of Plenty hotshots for 1.3 points at 42 with SPIN (Kaleb Trask, Emoni Narawa, Mathew Skipwith-Garland, Joe Webber)

SX are 3 points lower with Tiatia instead of Garland and Tiatia is worth more than double. True price more like 35, edge of almost 17%, yada yada! 

[harry_rag]

Quick recap; one try for England hotshots and one (in the 69th minute) for their subs so profits of 56 and 53 x stake from those bets, 2 tries for Bay of Plenty hotshots meaning a loss of 8 x stake from that bet. I make it that the bank is now up by 493.5 stakes so the next stake will be 1.4 points.

[harry_rag]

Munster v Ospreys: Sell Munster hotshots for 1.4 points at 40 with SPIN  (Darren Sweetnam, Rory Scannell, Damian de Allende, Matt Gallagher)

SX are 3 points lower but have the far more valuable Coombes instead of Scannell. (The former's try minutes being more or less double the latter's.)

My take on the true value is just 30.5 for a 23% edge! Even at the top end value it's only 5 points more and still a double digit edge.

[harry_rag]

Nil make up there so +40 x stake. One standout in the earlier NFL games.

Tampa Bay @ Carolina: Sell A Jones TD mins for 1.4 points at 37 with SX

Can't do anything else at more that 50% of the number of minutes there are in a game!

[harry_rag]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Tampa Bay @ Carolina: Sell A Jones TD mins for 1.4 points at 37 with SX

Can't do anything else at more that 50% of the number of minutes there are in a game!

 That was actually Aaron Jones in the Jacksonville @ Green Bay game. Annoyingly the bet won but, given the ambiguity, I'm going to exclude the profit from the results even though I suspect no-one's actually paying that much attention! Had I put his name in full I'd have recorded it (as I would have, had the bet lost).

Current standings are 15 winners from 19 bets and a 549.9 point profit. Bank up by 109.9% and an ROI of 50.92%

Stake rises to 1.5 points.

[harry_rag]

Minnesota @ Chicago: Sell Dalvin Cook touchdown mins for 1.5 points at 36 with SPIN

Again, selling high and at a spread free price (SX go 32-36). No doubt though, having posted this one correctly, sods law dictates I get spanked!