Spread Betting Sells (90 day hunt)

[harry_rag]

Zebre v Ulster: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1.5 points at 41 with SPIN (Michael Lowry, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Alby Mathewson)

SX are 6 points lower with Marshall rather than Mathewson but I'd say those two players are broadly similar in terms of what they're worth.

I get a true value of 34.5 which offers almost a 16% edge and a "top book" value of 40.1 which is still just under the sell price.

[harry_rag]

No TD for Cook so +36 x stake from that bet, one try for the hotshots so a make up of 25 and +16 x stake.

Current standings are 17 winners from 21 bets and a 627.5 point profit. Bank up by 125.5% and an ROI of 52.52%

Stake rises to 1.6 points.

[harry_rag]

Otago v Northland: Sell Otago hotshots for 1.6 points at 48 with SPIN (Michael Collins, Vilimoni Koroi, Josh Timu, Jona Nareki)

This was shaping up to be the classic example of a value bet for this thread (SX go 44-48 with Tomkinson in for Timu despite Tomkinson appearing to add twice as much value). The only area in which it falls down is the perceived edge as I get a true value of 44.8 which "only" offers an edge of 6.7%. Up to now I've only posted bets with a double digit edge in here but given the returns so far and my overall experience of this market I'm happy to put this up, win or lose.

The edge based on the try minute prices of the players is only one indicator of value and this remains a solid selection even if it's not right up there in "no-brainer" territory.

[harry_rag]

No joy there but no disaster, made up at 50 for a loss of 2 x stake.

2 in tonight's RU.

Harlequins v Exeter: Sell Exeter hotshots for 1.6 points at 38 with SPIN (Facundo Cordero, Tom O'Flaherty, Olly Woodburn, Sam Simmonds)

Sale v Northampton: Sell Sale hotshots for 1.6 points at 35 with SPIN (Luke James, Denny Solomona, Rohan van Rensburg, Simon Hammersley)

Both similar in that slightly higher price elsewhere and going on for a 14% edge on my numbers. (One player different in the second quartet.)

[harry_rag]

Make ups of 50, 75 and 25 for losses of 2 and 37 x stake and a 10 x stake profit.

Cheetahs v Griquas: Sell Cheetahs hotshots for 1.6 points at 60 with SPIN (Clayton Blommetjies, Rhyno Smith, Howard Mnisi, Rosko Specman)

A couple of points lower for the same quartet elsewhere, I get a true value of around 53 so just about a double digit edge.

[harry_rag]

England v Ireland: Sell England hotshots for 1.6 points at 38 with SPIN (Elliot Daly, Jonathan Joseph, Henry Slade, Jonny May)

Worth just over 31 so a decent enough edge, or that's the theory!

[harry_rag]

Wales v Georgia: Sell Wales sub try mins for 1.6 points at 71 with SX

 

[harry_rag]

Last 3 bets made up at 25 (+35 x stake), 50 (-12) and 76 (-5).

Current standings are 19 winners from 27 bets and a 609.9 point profit. Bank up by 121.98% and an ROI of 36.77%

Stake remains at 1.6 points.

Edited November 23, 2020 by harry_rag
19 winners, not 20

[harry_rag]

Wasps v Bristol: Sell Wasps hotshots for 1.6 points at 60 with SPIN (Lima Sopoaga, Zach Kibirige, Josh Bassett, Jack Willis)

Pretty much as good as it gets for me, value wise. SX are just 49-53 with Umaga in for Sopoaga and Umaga adds double the value. Even the most optimistic take on the true value of the SPIN quartet struggles to get near 50.

[harry_rag]

Leinster v Cardiff: Sell Leinster hotshots for 1.6 points at 70 (Jimmy O'Brien, Cian Kelleher, Dave Kearney, Luke McGrath) and their sub try mins for 1.6 points at 81, both with SPIN.

Same hotshots are 7 points lower elsewhere which is still arguably too high. I get a true value of 56.1 for a 19.9% edge and a top end value of 61.6 which is still decent. Sub try mins are the same price elsewhere but this is a sell on what I've just decided to call the immutable law of big numbers! 

[harry_rag]

 

Ulster v Scarlets: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1.6 points at 57 with SPIN (Matt Faddes, Rob Lyttle, John Cooney, Marcell Coetzee)

Usual stuff, running out of different ways to say the same thing but getting a true value of just under 49 for a 14% edge.

 

[harry_rag]

2 prices high enough to be selling in tonight's NFL action.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville: Sell Conner TD mins for 1.6 points at 31 with SX

Dallas @ Minnesota: Sell Cook TD mins for 1.6 points at 40 with SX

[harry_rag]

The last 6 bets saw 5 wins and 1 (large) loss. The hotshots made up at 25, 50 and 25 for returns of 35, 20 and 32 x stake but the sub try minutes sell made up at an eye watering 217 for a loss of 136 x stake. Can't say I wasn't well overdue one of those in here. The TD mins sells made up at 0 and 13 so a net +58 x stake return there.

Current standings are 24 winners from 33 bets and a 624.3 point profit. Bank up by 124.86% and an ROI of 28.36%

Stake remains at 1.6 points.

[harry_rag]

Washington @ Dallas: Sell Elliott TD mins at 30 with SX or SPIN

Not a bet I instinctively like but sometimes it's best to just do what the numbers tell you, win or lose!

[harry_rag]

One for tomorrow's early RU game.

Hawke's Bay v Northland: Sell Hawke's Bay hotshots for 1.6 points at 39 with SPIN  (Kurt Baker, Lolagi Visinia, Stacey Ili, Jonah Lowe)

SPIN yet to go up with their player try minute prices so I can't assess the value here as accurately as I'd like. (If someone with fat fingers has put the prices in for SX I may be making my decision based on a rick.) 

SX have Fornai and Dixon in their hotshots rather than Baker and Ili. They value Fornai on his own at not much less than Baker and Ili. They value Dixon at more than both put together. (No try minutes price as he's in the front 5 but their 7/5 anytime stands out as he's odds on across the board and the most likely tryscorer in the game according to the fixed odds market.) In SX's opinion the SPIN hotshots are worth 29 at most so a sell at 39 doesn't look like the worst bet one could place.

[harry_rag]

No TD for Elliott for a gain of 30 x stake but 3 tries for the hotshots for a loss of 36 x stake. Net loss of 6 x stake. No doubt be a few later.

[harry_rag]

Just the one that stands out in tonight's rugby.

Sharks v Pumas: Sell Sharks hotshots for 1.6 points at 49 with SPIN (Manie Libbok, Yaw Penxe, Jeremy Ward, Madosh Tambwe)

Same quartet 3 points lower elsewhere but should be lower still for me.

 

[harry_rag]

Argentina v New Zealand: Sell New Zealand hotshots for 1.6 points at 52 with SPIN (Clarke, Mo’unga and both Barretts) and their sub try mins for 1.6 points at 66 with SX.

Perhaps risky going back to the same well too many times but hotshots are a spread free trade (52 to buy elsewhere) that I’d value at more like 44 and sub try mins are plenty high enough.

[harry_rag]

Sharks hotshots made up at 50 for a loss of 1 x stake, NZ's made up at zero for +52 x stake but a proper bloodied nose from their sub try minutes; made up at 218 for a loss of 152 x stake.

Current standings are 26 winners from 38 bets and a 453.1 point profit. Bank up by 90.62% and an ROI of 17.57%

Stake goes down to 1.5 points.

After an unusually fortunate start things have reverted to a more typical mix of winners and losers. Progressive staking bites hard with the big losses coming to the highest stake so far. Will see how level stakes compare after this weekend.

[harry_rag]

Gloucester v Wasps: Sell Wasps hotshots for 1.5 points at 38 with SPIN (Zach Kibirige, Juan de Jongh, Josh Bassett, Tom Willis)

Reasonable value by the usual metrics.

[harry_rag]

Made up at zero for +38 x stake.

Ireland v Georgia: Sell Ireland hotshots for 1.5 points at 79 with SPIN  (Jacob Stockdale, Hugo Keenan, Chris Farrell, Kieth Earls) and their sub try mins for 1.5 points at 69 with the same firm.

I'll stop posting rationale unless it's anything out of the normal run of things. For any weirdos that might miss it, just channel your inner Bowie and use the cut-up technique based on previous posts, you won't be far out! 

[harry_rag]

Tennessee @ Indianapolis: Sell Derrick Henry TD mins for 1.5 points at 30 with SPIN

Carolina @ Minnesota: Sell Dalvin Cook TD mins for 1.5 points at 43 with SX

[harry_rag]

A bit of everything from those last 4 bets, 2 max profits (79 x stake and 43 x stake from Ireland sub try mins and Dalvin Cook), 1 partial profit (+54 x stake Ireland hotshots) and 1 loss (-28 x stake from Derrick Henry).

Current standings are 30 winners from 43 bets and a 717.1 point profit. Bank up by 143.42% and an ROI of 24.17%

Stake goes back up to 1.6 points. (Could've put it up to 1.7 as bank has crossed 2 100 point thresholds since the last update but a single "tick" increase seems more prudent.)

Had I just stuck to 1 point level stakes the profit would have been 588 points, had I played to flat stakes of 1.37 points (the average stake to date) then it would be 806.79 points. Progressive stakes lagging slightly at the moment because the good run came when stakes were lower and the bumpiest patch when they were at their highest.

[harry_rag]

Munster v Zebre: Sell Munster hotshots for 1.6 points at 79 (Matt Gallagher, Calvin Nash, Darren Sweetnam, Gavin Coombes) and their sub try mins for 1.6 points at 101, both with SPIN.

Munster are 40 point favourites here so I'm hoping they either don't run riot to the expected extent or aren't to reliant on their hotshots and substitutes!

 

[harry_rag]

8 tries for Munster so happy to come out with a profit. One for the hotshots so a gain of 54 x stake there but 2 for the subs and a loss of 35 x stake.

Current standings are 31 winners from 45 bets and a 747.5 point profit. Bank up by 149.5% and an ROI of 22.96%

Stake remains at 1.6 points.

[harry_rag]

Australia v Argentina: Sell Australia hotshots for 1.6 points at 38 with SPIN (Reece Hodge, Tom Wright, Jordan Petaia, Marika Koroibete)

Several routine sells in tonight's games and the early action tomorrow but only this one offers enough of an edge to merit posting in here.

[harry_rag]

Max profit of 38 x stake from that one, profit edges above 800 points so next stake will be 1.7 points.

[harry_rag]

England v France: Sell England hotshots for 1.7 points at 47 with SPIN (Elliot Daly, Anthony Watson, Henry Slade, Jonny May)

Worth less than 40 for me.

 

[harry_rag]

3 appealing player TD minutes sells in today's NFL games, all for 1.7 points.

Dalvin Cook at 37 with SX (Minnesota)

Derrick Henry at 36 with SX (Tennessee)

Nick Chubb at 28 with SPIN (Cleveland)

Chubb just below my usual 30+ threshold for this thread but is 5 points lower elsewhere so makes the cut.

 

[harry_rag]

Chubb made up at 30 for a loss of 2 x stake, the other 3 bets all came in at zero for profits of 47, 37 and 36 x stake.

Current standings are 35 winners from 50 bets and a 1008.9 point profit. Bank up by 201.78% and an ROI of 28.28%

Return to 1 point level stakes would have been +763 points, to the average stake of 1.41 points it would have been +1077.36 points.

In accordance with the opening post (bank tripled) that's the hunt complete in 50 bets over 43 days. 

Whilst I was bold enough to predict that a profit was "a shade odds on" I have to acknowledge I've been lucky enough to have a better than average return from the bets posted in here, even allowing for the fact that I've only posted the standout selections.