European Masters

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Straight into this wedged inbetween the Championship League event. It helps one or two players who have had abit of snooker inbetween no doubt. Some of the players here in this event we've not seen since the Worlds. It's a big event so lots of chances for a big price to get in there. I will take a few here as i see this event as being quite open. 13pts staked.

1pt E/W M.Allen to win European Masters 16/1 betvictor
1pt E/W S.Bingham to win European Masters 28/1 betvictor
1pt E/W B.Hawkins to win European Masters 33/1 betvictor
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0.5pts E/W A.McGill to win European Masters 80/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W M.Gould to win European Masters 125/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W S.Donaldson to win European Masters 125/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W R.Day to win European Mastes 125/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W N.Saengkham to win European Masters 200/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W K.Maflin to win European Masters 250/1 boylesports
0.5pts E/W X.Guodong to win European Masters 300/1 boylesports

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Two I like in the match betting today. Three if you count Gould against Higgins but because I have Gould as an outright pick, I'll leave that alone. Both matches are in tonights session (7pm start)

The first is Jamie Clarke to beat Ricky Walden. Clarke must still be on cloud 9 after his fantastic run to the Worlds last 16. He has a poor record against Walden losing both of the head-2-heads but one of those was 7 years ago and the other was the first to 3. I feel like right now in a "first to 5" and with Clarkes form vs Rickys that Clarke's price is quite tasty. The other I like is Li Hang to beat Selt. I feel like Selt is only evens because of his Championship League group win but his form prior to that was awful. Hang is a really good player and has won both h2h matches with ease (5-2 and 4-1) which is a nice bonus i suppose.

4pts J.Clarke to beat R.Walden 6/4 betfair
5pts Li Hang to beat M.Selt 4/5 betfair

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Clarke beats Walden, Gould beats Higgins but Hang loses out to Selt. Selt really got the run of the balls in that match and I think i'm going to continue fading him. He doesn't look like a man in confidence.  +1pt

Lots more matches today as we continue the 1st round. I initally really wanted to get Mark Davis on a handicap against Amiri but believe it or not he is just over EVENS! to beat Amiri 5-0. That's just crazy pricing and no thank you. It may happen but -3.5 is what i was after and at the likes of 6 or 7/1 on that's just dumb. I'm not too keen on any of the other morning matches.

In the 2.30pm matches, I'm going to take Maddocks to beat Kowalski. Kowalski is just 16 years old and despite Maddocks himself being 18 that extra year as a pro can make a big difference with experience. Maddocks caught Holt cold but he beat him 3-0 in the Championship League match and then drew his next match needing only to draw against O'Neill to make the next phase. He probably let that get to him in losing 3-1 but that will do him good and keep him fresh here. I think he can win that tie.

The other I like is Filipiak to beat Peter Lines. Lines has just competed in the World Seniors Championship. He beat Tony Knowles 4-0 but then went out to eventual champion Jimmy White. We haven't really seen many wins from Lines since getting his card back. Filipiak is a player that I quite rate. He beat Xintong last season and has beaten Mark Joyce this season and pushed the likes of Williams to deciders. I think his scoring should be abit better in that tie.

5pts S.Maddocks to beat A.Kowalski 7/10 betfair
4pts K.Filipiak to beat P.Lines evens bet365

 

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No joy lastnight. Maddocks was one ball away from going 4-2 up and the next you know he is losing 5-3. Poor. Filipiak took the first frame and managed to lose the next 5. The last time Peter Lines won 5 frames in a row England won the World Cup I reckon. The one good thing about the evening was seeing a couple more of the outright bets come through in Ant McGill and Guodong.

Looking at todays matches, it's the final few matches to complete Round 1 this morning and afternoon and then in the evening we start Round 2.

In the morning matches I'm going to take a punt on Liam Highfield beating Un-Nooh. We haven't seen Un-Nooh since the Worlds, where he got smashed by Ronnie 10-1. Prior to that round he has beaten Highfield in a really good match 10-7. Highfield was 7-3 down and got it back to 7-7 and even when you look at their h2h Highfield had won the previous 3. Un-Nooh is the better player but could he lack some match practice? also we've already seen Highfield beat Xintong in the Championship league group and get draws against Bond and Jordan Brown. Which brings me to the second bet I like this morning and that's Jordan Brown to beat Gerard Greene. Green lost all 3 of his matches in the Championship League group.

In the afternoon matches I'm going to give Jamie Wilson a chance. The kid is just 16yrs old but he has already beat the likes of Georgiou and Xiongman and one thing we know is that he is going to be fully up for this. Maybe the answer is +2.5 handicap for Wilson. Contining the theme of outsiders I will take Ash Carty to beat Jimmy Robertson. I can't see why he is 15/8 to beat Jimmy when he has won both head-2-heads in the last 2 years. Infact Carty was the last person Jimmy played at the Worlds.

As previously mentioned, round 2 starts at 7pm tonight and I'll come back later to look at those matches.

2.5pts L.Highfield to beat T.Un-Nooh 11/5 bet365
2.5pts J.Wilson to beat S.Lichtenberg 23/10 willhill
4pts A.Carty to beat J.Robertson 15/8 betfair
5pts J.Brown to beat G.Greene 4/5 unibet

 

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Highfield and J-Dog Brown both win. Looks like Wilson is going to bottle it and Carty and Robbo looks a 50/50 right now.

Looking at this evening there is 3 more I like and again all 3 look to be the underdog. I only have around 10mins to run through this so I'm going to keep it short and sweet. I like Brecel to beat Ali Carter as quite plainly he scores better and more fluent and in a "first to 5" that's what I'm looking for. I like Alan Taylor to have a chance against Woollaston as Ben is looking abit off at the moment and Taylor looked in good nick in the last round

finally, pre tournament I didn't know whether to go with Ryan Day or Bingtao as my outright pick and watching Day get a 147 pre-tournament swayed me. Both look really good at the moment and the winner looks more than capable so I'm going to have courage in my convictions and go with Day in the match market also.

3pts L.Brecel to beat A.Carter evens betfair
2.5pts A.Taylor to beat B.Woollaston 8/5 unibet
2.5pts R.Day to beat Y.Bingtao 13/10 willhill

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Wins for Brecel & Taylor. Day was pretty poor. Bingtao was excellent for the first 4 frames but then Day just handed it to him. I was thinking of going each-way on Bingtao at 22/1 during this match but when you think Bingtao needs to beat Ronnie and Trump along the way, I'm not sure his form is quite that good. Hopefully doesn't come back to bite me. 

A decent day +19pts. Some casualties in the outright market. Will do the math regarding outright points at end of tourney.

European Masters +11pts
Snooker 2020 bets +147.75pts

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Just one bet for today and it will be in one of the evening matches, at 7pm. I've wanted to fade Lisowski for a little while now since his showing at the Championship league. I couldn't even imagine that Ochoiski would give him any issue but he really should have lost that match, coming from behind to win on a deciding leg. He has Jackson Page tonight and I think 3/1 is far too big for Page in this current situation. Page actually knocked out Lisowski in this event last year and that was when Lisowski was in much better form. Not one 50+ break from Lisowski in his last match and that's unheard of. Perhaps he is still getting over that deciding leg loss at the Worlds to McGill.

+2.5 handicap on Page is an option if you want abit more of security

3pts J.Page to beat J.Lisowski 3/1 bet365

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Well, that was an exciting match. Page goes 2-0 up, then 4-3 down only to bring it back to 4-4. Deciding frame Lisowski is like 58pts in the lead and Page comes back and wins the match by 1 point. +9pts

We're now left with 32 players. We've seen Ronnie O'Sullivan go out early (as he always does if he can't be bothered) and the draw has opened up for a few. Tomorrow is "killing day" as everybody plays twice. Everybody will have their first match at 10am and then come back in the evening at 7pm for the last 16. The Quarter-finals will commence on Saturday.

I have a few outrights still in and scoring very well. There isn't a great deal I like tomorrow without having to go into handicap betting one way or another and so it's a no bet for me tomorrow and I'm just going to hope the outrights can make the cull.

European Masters +20pts
Snooker 2020 bets +156.75pts

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Well it's a shame that Bingham absolutely bottled it when 4-1 up against Selby and lost the next 4 in a row. Allen also goes out tamely and McGill I didn't even give a chance to Kyren Wilson after watching McGill play. That leaves me with just Martin Gould. He faces the man I didn't want to win this event in Bingtao as Bingtao was also a guy I liked the look of. I'm hoping Gould can get into a final here, he would need to beat Bingtao and then Judd Trump. Either way we'll know the finalists by tonight.

There isn't much I like today. Very even matches. Perhaps Neil Robertson to beat Murphy would be my only confident pick. 

4pts N.Robertson (-1.5 legs) to beat S.Murphy evens paddypower

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Murphy edges out Robertson. Gould beats Bingtao in a decider more importantly. Semi-finals in 2 hours :

S.Murphy Vs M.Selby
J.Trump Vs M.Gould

I would want Gould to play anybody but Trump right now, he is playing absolutely awesome. Wins of 5-0, 5-1, 5-1, 5-0 and 5-2 nobody has even got close to him. In the 5 frames he won today he got 2 centuries and 3 50+ breaks. In the 5-0 win to Page, 4 50+ breaks and a further 3 centuries and 5 50+ in the other 3 matches so to say I can't see Gould getting through to the final is an understatement. Then there is the "fear factor" as Gould isn't used to getting to major finals really. 

With all that in mind, I am on Gould at 66/1 pretty much to win this and I'll will pray for miracles. I will take Trump to win on the handicap. If he's beating Kyren Wilson 5-2 then he's going to beat my man by atleast the same scoreline. Gould will need to find that balkline on every shot. By the way, this match is a "first to 6"  

Come on Gouldy!!!

4pts J.Trump (-3.5 frames) to beat M.Gould 5/4 paddypower

European Masters +16pts
Snooker 2020 bets +152.75pts

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I'll take that loss! Martin Gould plays like a boss from 3-3 to win 6-3 and make tomorrows final. Come on Gouldy! One more match to win!

European Masters  +12pts
Snooker 2020 bets +148.75

[Torque]

Didn't tail @Fader but I'll be 

[Torque]

67 is fine but 126 sounds so much better 

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2 minutes ago, Torque said:

67 is fine but 126 sounds so much better 

haha, for sure! I want the big 125/1 winner! 

Ironically, he should be playing Bingham, who was 4-1 up in a race to 5! 

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The final is here then and it's Selby Vs Gould. I looked through to find a bet here and there isn't too much to get excited about. I went each-way on Gould from the start so I feel like this is abit of a freeroll chance. I'm pretty sure they've both only hit one century and the century line is 2.5 so I was tempted by under 2.5 and/or Selby to be the highest break. Then I thought about overs on the frames market but none of that is enough value to me.

I'm going to take a market I've used before on bet365 and that's "either player to win 3 frames in a row" and I'm going for "No!" at 9/1

Other then that, I'm just going to hope that Gould can do the business today.

2pts Either player to win 3 frames in a row? No! 9/1 bet365

 

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Ah well, I always felt like Selby would win that. Gould bit too wild at times but a brave effort. That's a 62.5/1 winner atleast, although it feels like a loss.

European Masters  +29.25pts
Snooker 2020 bets +166pts