Horse Racing Chat - Sunday 23rd August

[Darran]

Wasn't great on the flat this morning with my first blank day since I started doing these previews. Obviously we got some voided money back. On we move to the final jumps action of the season in Australia and it really is a cracking card at Ballarat. Hopefully we can make some money from it.

 

Race 1 (4am)

Small field to start, but a cracking race with 4 good horses taking each other on. Eckhart and Wolfe Tone were both really impressive when breaking their maiden tags at the first time of asking at Pakenham last month. Wolfe Tone went and followed that up with a win in a BM120 at Sandown 3 weeks ago. I thought he was really impressive that day as well as the front 2 pulled well clear of the rest. The issue I have with both of them though is if they really want 4000m in a Heavy 10 which is likely to ride even testing than that. It's enough for me to not go with either of them as much as either could easily be good enough to win. I have been a big fan of Flying Agent and although I did vow to myself I wouldn't back a Horner ridden horse again I am going to back him here. He was set way too much to do last time at Sandown over fences, but it does look like 4000m will be ideal for him given his running style. We also know that he can handle a Heavy 10 track having run really well both here and Warrnambool over fences on that surface and those two tracks do seem to get really testing compared to the other jumping venues like Sandown or Pakenham. I also like San Remo and he is over the odds for sure. Now I did say the same thing last time and he ran a stinker in the Wolfe Tone race last time, but he clearly wasn't at his best as he didn't jump well and never got involved. He's trialled well since behind Flying Agent on Tuesday and crucially for me he was only just beaten by Bee Tee Junior at Warrnambool on a Heavy 10 on his previous hurdle start. Given how well that one ran against Ablaze in the Grand National Hurdle and is his main danger in the Grand National Chase on this card that is for me the best form in the race. I am hoping back on a testing surface he can show that form again.

 

Flying Agent @ 2/1 with Betfair and Betfred

San Remo @ 15/2 with Betfred

 

Race 2 (4.40am)

The 1st maiden hurdle on the card is over 3400m and on the face of it it looks a good opportunity for Beau Balmain to get his head in front over hurdles. He was 2nd to Wolfe Tone at Pakenham on hurdles debut and then 3rd at Casterton 2 weeks ago when a mistake at the last cost him with re-opposing Little Phoenix finishing in 2nd. The concern tough has to be the really testing conditions. His 3 runs in heavy ground on the flat has seen him finish last twice and at Caulfield back in April his jockey said he didn't handle the Heavy 9. He probably wins if he does handle the track, but at the price he has to be taken on for me. Ablestock has respected connections and has been running well on the flat at a low level. Had a few quiet hurdles trials so hard to know what to expect. Little Phoenix has been solid in 5 hurdles starts and has been 2nd twice and 3rd twice, but his worst effort was on a Heavy 10 at Warrnambool where he really struggled in the ground so I can't have him here.

 

That leaves me with a couple worth backing outside the front 3 in the betting. Infinite Reign made a solid hurdles debut here over 3200m in a Heavy 10 when 5th behind Ventura Storm. He was then 3rd just behind the 2nd in the race Eckhart won. Since then he was 3rd at Moe on a heavy track and he looks to have a solid chance in the conditions. At a double figure price I am also taking a chance on Ross's Point. He had 2 hurdle starts in September 2018 and didn't show too much on ground that would have been too quick for him. He didn't run over hurdles again until last month when he was a really good 3rd at Warrnambool in a Heavy 10. He then pulled up at Pakenham where again his rider said he needed a wetter track. He won a hurdle trail at the end of last month in a Heavy 8 and in a race where you can pick holes in the fancied horses in the conditions I think he is well worth backing at a big price.

 

Infinite Reign @ 13/2 with Betfred

Ross's Point e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred

 

Race 3 (5.20am)

Doesn't look a strong contest and no real surprise to see Home By Midnight at odds on. He is the classiest flat horse in the race and landed the Launceston Cup back in Feburary. He was also 2nd in an Auckland Cup when trained in New Zealand on a Heavy 10 track. Had 3 trials where he wasn't asked to do a great deal, but it looks a good opportunity for him given he handles conditions. Wazuzu is also making is hurdles debut and won on a Heavy 10 at Warrnambool two starts back. It was only a BM64 so he certainly isn't up to the favourites flat class, but the fact he handles conditions is a plus. Zoffany Rocket and Peace Brother are also in single figures, but the former isn't certain to handle the ground on hurdles debut and the latter fell 2 out when getting tired at Pakenham and has never run on a heavy surface. I fancied Jeparit last week, but he was massively disappointing and has also never run on a flat track. First Crush has been given some bizarre rides by Horner, but he has shown the best hurdles form of these. On his hurdles debut he was given a very kind ride over course and distance on this ground and then has run well since despite his jockey leaving it way too late. I think Home By Midnight is the most likely winner, but will have a small bet e/w on First Crush in the hope he might finally get a good ride because he is certainly over priced at double figures.

 

First Crush e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

 

Race 4 (6am)

It is a shame Gobstopper is a non-runner as he has had such a good season, but we still have a good race on our hands. I think the favourite is the one to beat here. I put him up last week and he was really impressive as he continued to build up to this contest which he was 2nd in last year to Ablaze. That is obviously very good form and we know that he handles course and distance on a Heavy 10 track. Instigator clearly has ability, but finds it hard to win. He ought to have beaten Sollevare in a maiden hurdle at Pakenham and then ran well to be 2nd to Wolfe Tone at Sandown. He should be fine on a heavy track, but he is more likely to finish 2nd than win. Sollevare wouldn't be out of it as on his next hurdle start he was only beaten 5L by Ablaze when 4th in the Grand National Hurdle. Saunter Boy is a classy flat horse and won on his hurdles debut at Casterton last time. He might have been slightly lucky there and his runs on a heavy track on the flat have been nothing special. Northern Voyage should be ready to peak and he's the won to beat.

 

Northern Voyage @ 5/4 with Betfred

 

Race 5 (6.45am)

Ascot Red is favourite for this contest and won it last year. He has been in really good form on the flat and we today's conditions will hold no fear for him. You would imagine the flat runs have been used to build him up for a repeat bid. He has an obvious chance, but he seems a little short in the betting for me. Solar Coaster has some good chasing form in behind good horses in hot races. The ground would be a concern for me though. Longclaw has a chance on his chasing debut with two decent hurdle runs the last twice at Warrnambool. It's a tricky little race, but I am going to take two against the field. The Dominator is likely to blast off in front and in the conditions they might find him hard to peg back. He won well using those tactics at Pakenham two starts back and then just didn't stay 4200m in the Crisp Steeplechase at Sandown. The ground isn't a concern and I like his chances here. I also thought So Belafonte was over priced here on chasing debut. On the face of it he was disappointing at Casterton last time, but his rider lost an iron and it cost him his chance. He won over hurdles here back in June and the form of that race is strong. So given we know he handles conditions and has trialled well over fences I think he should be shorter than his current price.

 

The Dominator @ 100/30 with Betfred

So Belafonte @ 15/2 with Betfred

 

Race 6 (7.25am)

The big race of the Australian jumps season is the Grand National Steeplechase over 4500m and it is around £100k to the winner. Albaze has done amazingly well since going over jumps as he is 5/5 over both hurdles and fences. He has already won the Grand Annual this season and he was really impressive in doing so. His trainer has spoken about bringing him over for the Grand National at Aintree in a couple of years time after he gets even more experience and it will be great if he does come over. Next year he might go to Japan for the Nakayama Grand Jump and he has the potential to be one of the best jumpers Australia has produced. He landed the Grand National Hurdle last time and he was really gutsy out in front beating Bee Tee Junior who re-opposes here and looks to be his main danger. Strictly speaking at the weights Bee Tee Junior should reverse form, but I think this extra distance in wetter conditions over fences will suit Ablaze more than it will Bee Tee Junior and I rate him a strong pick here.  Bee Tee Junior is actually making his debut over fences although he did win a 3 runner trial on Tuesday. Of the rest I thought Accounted Four won really well last week at Casterton. This is stronger and on much softer going, but he is clearly getting better the deeper into his prep he goes. Michelin disappointed last time and the trip is an unknown, but the ground wont be an issue and he has place claims as well. 

 

Ablaze @ Evs with Bet365

[BillyHills]

4 meetings on Sunday

Decent Class 2 handicap over jumps

215 Cartmel

 

Class 2 Handicap at Sandown

230 San

 

1pt EW Chesterfield 12/1 Bet365
1pt EW Hyanna 13/2 bet365

1pt EW Double