Racing Chat - Sunday Aug 2nd

[BillyHills]

Richest race is at Galway

420 Galway

 

1pt EW Laughifuwant 14/1 PP (First 5)
1pt win Nord 7/2 betfair

2,5,6 Comb F/C

Others
1200 San: King Robert 5/1 Hills
225 New: Danzeno 9/2 bet365
325 New: Whats The Story EW 10/1 bet365
355 San: Thai Power 11/4 bet365

 

 

[Darran]

Some top quality jumping action at Sandown in the early hours of the morning with the Grand National Hurdle and the Crips Steeplechase. Here are my thoughts on the 3 jumps races.

Race 1 (2.55am)

A cracking BM120 hurdle here which looks competitive.

Northern Voyage - On last seasons 3 hurdles runs he would have a great chance here and it was as solid 2nd on his first run this year in March, but he clearly wasn't right on his next start at Pakenham in April as he wasn't seen until two trials last month. He has the form to win, but he looks really short in the betting so happy to take him on.

Riding High - 2/2 over hurdles and one a good one of these at the Bool in May. Not seen over hurdles since and his two recent flat runs weren't great. Has a chance if able to show the form he did earlier in the season.

San Remo - Has looked good in both hurdle starts winning a strong maiden hurdle in June and then last month just being beaten by Bee Tee Junior which is also strong form. Was back on the flat at Flemington last time and ran as well as could be expected in a good race. Both hurdle wins were on Heavy 10's, but the quicker ground shouldn't be a worry for him as he's won on good on the flat. Big player for me.

The Statesman - Feels odd to write about a maiden hurdle at Ludlow, but that is The Statesman only run over hurdles and he bolted up. He used to be trained by Ian Williams before coming to Australia and that win probably would give him a chance in a race like this, but his flat form has tailed off a bit and his hurdle trials haven't told us much. That hurdle win was on good to firm though and I just wonder if he really wants a bit of cut in the ground. Adds intrigue to the race for sure.

Wolfe Tone - Was really impressive at Pakenham on his hurdles debut and he had the right 2 in 2nd and 3rd that day. Based on that he has to have a chance in this if progressing again.

Animator - Another slight unknown as his two hurdles runs were in New Zealand. Impressively won the first of them before failing to finish a year ago. Flat form is OK, but will be a good effort to win this on his first hurdles start in a year.

Instigator - Should really have won last time, but 1 win in 28 starts tells a story. He clearly has a good bit of ability, but getting him to finish in 1st is tough and he's up in grade here as well. Seems short in the betting.

Summary - Those above look the possible winners in my view. San Remo looks a massive price to me at 9/1. I just don't understand how he is so big given his form looks really strong and he comes here in good form. Most of the others have question marks about them as much as they have the form capable of landing this, but I do think his form is as good as those shorter in the market anyway and in some cases he betters them. I will also have a saver on Wolfe Tone because I was really taken with him at Pakenham.

San Remo e/w @ 9/1 with Betfred

Wolfe Tone @ 16/5 with Betfair

Race 2 (3.35am)

The Grand National Hurdle might have 8 runners, but only 4 will count and apparently we might see one of these running at Aintree next year!

Tallyho Twinkletoe - Won this last year and is 9/10 over hurdles and fences in New Zealand and Australia. Only just beat Bee Tee Junior last time and had to survive a protest, but I think he will come on for that run especially as his previous run in New Zealand had only been 9 days previously in a race that was only run over 2400m. Last time it was 3500m and that will have got him match fit going back up to 4200m. Bee Tee Junior is better off at the weights here and he does have to give 4kgs to Ablaze, but he is the one they have to beat.

Gobstopper - Had been winning all the feature hurdles this season until he was only 3rd behind Tallyho last time. If he won it wouldn't be the biggest surprise in the world, but clearly he needs to step up on that Pakenham effort.

Ablaze - 2/2 over hurdles and 2/2 over fences. He was superb in winning the Grand Annual in May and apparently he is being aimed at the Grand National at Aintree next year. He was poor on the flat at Rosehill last time, but that race turned into a sprint and it just didn't suit him. He does get 4kgs from the top one, but I just wonder if the lack of a recent run over hurdles and the fact he's had a month off the track might just tip the balance in Tallyho's favour.

Bee Tee Junior - So close to beating the top one last time and as I mention above is better off at the weights here, but I do think Tallyho has more to come. The distance is an unknown, but he looks like he will stay and he isn't out of this.

Summary - A cracking race and I am really looking forward to it. Bee Tee Junior is progressive and could upset the top 2 in the betting, but to me the winner is likely to be Ablaze or Tallyho Twinkletoe. It is the New Zealand horse I am going with though as he should improve for the Pakenham run and he was so good last year.

Tallyho Twinkletoe @ 6/5 with Betfred

Race 3 (4.15am)

Speaking of the Grand National this is named after the great Crisp. Shamal has been really disappointing in two starts since his win and I have to leave him alone here on the back of those efforts. The Dominator lived up to his name at Pakenham when putting in a superb front running performance to beat a useful field in a BM120. He steps up in trip by 1000m and the furthest he's won over is 3600m. This is a stiff course as well and nothing like the flat Pakenham so I find it hard to see him being able to do the same as he did last time here. I put up Felix Bay last time at Pakenham when he was 3rd to Slowpoke Rodriguez. He was left with too much to do although he does have to be ridden quietly, but the tactics were overdone. The step up in trip is going to suit and he will probably come on for that run as well. He also meets him 4kgs better than at Pakenham for a 2L defeat. Anything other than those 4 would be a surprise and it is Felix Bay for me.

Felix Bay @ 2/1 with everyone