Racing Chat - Saturday July 11th

[BillyHills]

Big Handicap at Newmarket on Saturday

4.10 Bunbury Cup

Trends

8/10 Drawn double figures ( 2,4,5,7,11,12,13,15,16,18)
10/10 ran within 6 weeks (all qualify)
8/10 Finished outside top 3 last time out (2,5,9,12)
10/10 Aged between 4 and 6 (all except 2,8,19,20)
10/10 Rated 101 or lower (everything lower than 7)
10/10 Carried over 9st (everything over 9)

EW bets
Cardsharp 25/1 bet365
No Nonsense 50/1 Hills

 

[Darran]

The Aussie action in Melbourne and Sydney this week comes from Caulfield and Rosehill respectively and I have bets in 3 races from each venue.

Caulfield R4 (4.35am)

Ballet Master is the pick here as I like the form of his win at Randwick last time. The horse he beat Bandersnatch also runs tomorrow at Rosehill and I think he will win tomorrow although won't be tipping him up as he is too short a price. With more rain forecast if the track gets into the heavy range then we know that he handles it which would be a concern for some of his main rivals here. 

Ballet Master @ 7/1 with Betfair

Caulfield R7 (6.35am)

The feature race on the card and if it does get into the heavy range then Jungle Edge will be a big danger, but for me Viridine can beat him anyway. He finished 1 place in front of Jungle Edge in the June Stakes which was a strong race. He followed that up with a win at Randwick and looked good in doing so as well. That was in a Heavy 9 so really testing ground wont bother him. I think he will take a sit behind Jungle Edge and then pounce in the home straight.

Viridine @ 6/4 with Bet365

Caulfield R8 (7.10m)

Knowles looks over priced here at double figures. She ran really well last time at Moonee Valley against the track bias and she was still in last place at the 400m marker. Her final 200m was only beaten by the winner. She ran really well over course and distance back in April on a Heavy 8 as well and a repeat of either of those efforts will see her go close. The concern is the draw as she is in 16 and will likely be ridden for luck again. Still at the price I am happy to take a chance.

Knowles e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill (4 places only 3 places in Australia as it stands) N/R

Rosehill R2 (3.10am)

Given I was going to put up New Arrangement last week when he was a non-runner you would think I would be putting it up here, but there are a couple I prefer. My Swashbuckler is another to come from Europe having been trained in France. I thought he ran a huge race on his 2nd start in Australia at Randwick last time. At the 400m he was in 12th and didn't get into the clear until 350m out. Once in the clear he finished off the race well to finish 3rd. That was over 1600m and he now goes up to 2000m which will be ideal. He looks to have a cracking chance. I am also going to back Korcho who was trained by Hughie Morrison and a year ago ran a really good 2nd at the July meeting over the same trip as today. He's had two starts in Australia and he was given a bit of a quiet ride first up before finding all sorts of trouble at Randwick last time. On his UK form I think he has a real chance in this and better ground is going to help as well.

Fulmina is a warm favourite after an impressive win last time and is clearly a danger, but for me the value is elsewhere.

My Swashbuckler @ 5/1 with everyone

Korcho e/w @ 18/1 with Betfrred

Rosehill R7 (6.15am)

I was on Trumbull last time when he finally decided to leave the stalls at the right time and he duly scored. If he starts like that again I think he has a good chance of following up because he is clearly in flying form this prep. The previous start he finished 2nd and Noble Boy was back in 3rd. I am adding him to the bets as well because he raced on the slower part of the track that day so you can upgrade his level of performance. Clearly on that effort those two aren't going to be far from each other.

Trumbull @ 14/5 with Bet365

Noble Boy @ 5/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R8 (6.55am)

Kordia could be hard to beat here, but I think the value is elsewhere in the shape of Inanup. I really liked his 1st up run when he was 2nd to the very progressive Adelong. He came from the back that day and had to come the widest of all. He had good pieces of form last prep as well and with a better draw the hope is he can sit a bit closer to the pace than he was able to last time when he was drawn out wide. He should also come on for that run as well and he is at a price we can back him e/w.

Inanup e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and Betfred