Horse Racing back at Newcastle Mon 1st June.

[TheLoneBettor]

It felt like an age waiting for Racing to get the nod again. But I have to ask myself have the horses been in some kind of training in the past 2 months or so?

Will this affect a trainers routine? For example - Will his or her horses be ready or not or will they just race them just for the sake of just giving them a run?

So many questions to ask because I am worried that stats from previous seasons (lets say if you have a system based on Newcastle top trainers) may take a different turn this time around.

Okay, that's the negative done so I have been trying to look for a positive angle on this.

Because racing has been out for the last 2 months or so, I have convinced myself that trainers need to bring some badly needed money home. They may not have had much time to train their horses since they knew racing was back on the 1st of June but neither has any other trainers. The point being here is, or the point I want to believe is that it won't be as negative as I have been making out. It may take a bit of time to settle down but I am going with the angle that trainers need to bring home some winners so it won't affect the stat trends of the past. I would love to hear your views on this.

For what it's worth I have been doing some research on HorseRaceBase at Newcastle. I have gone with the Forecast Favourites and Trainer/Jockey combination with other factors thrown in as well. I try not to back-fit systems too much for obvious reasons but many of my systems have gone with the stats. Some work and some don't as we all know.

So, this is what I came up with. It may look like an unbelievable strike rate but these horses are forecast favourites and have been consistent from 2017. I can't say the same about some other track favourites but it looks like Newcastle is a good hunting ground.

 

 

[Trotter]

The '5 Day Decs' are out for Monday at Newcastle ...... 369 horses entered in 8 races

The highest grade of race is a Class 3 handicap over 12 furlongs

No two year old race

One thing to bear in mind is that races up to a Mile are run on a straight track ... I think it's always handy to see which horses in a race have 'straight track form' because it is different to running around a bend