Racing Chat - Tuesday 5th May

[Darran]

An all jumps card in Australia is very rare, indeed it didn't happen for the first time until a couple of years ago. Jumps racing only happens in South Australia and Victoria so the industry is pretty small, but it does seem to be thriving again. Warranmbool's May Carnival is usually held over 3 days and all 3 are mixed, however with all racing behind closed doors it was decided to just do 2 days and have a jumps day and a flat day. Originally there was meant to be a 6 race card, but the maiden hurdle which opens the card has been divided 3 times to make an 8 race card. Also usually horses run in the Brierly on the Tuesday over 3450m and the Grand Annual on the Thursday over 5500m, but this year horses have had to pick one or the other. The meeting is certainly one for the bucket list as it looks a hell of an experience although like I say there will be no crowd there this year. Hopefully I can point you in the way of a few winners on the card.

Race 1 (2.45am)

The two at the front of the market ran at Pakenham last month and despite So Belaftone finishing 4th and My King's Counsel 5th it is the latter that is just shading it at the top of the market at the time of writing. I'd say that is probably down to the fact that My King's Counsel was making his hurdling debut whereas So Belafonte was having his 3rd start. I thought his was the better run though and he is going to be the pick. He ran well over course and distance in March finishing 3rd to Diamond Star Halo, but then a week later he was a big disappointment at Terang. The Pakenham run was his best yet for me as I think it was a strong race and I think he can finish in front of My King's Counsel again.

We have two hurdling debutants at the front end of the market as well and they both ran in trial here last week. Casa Larada finished in front of Arkamun and I thought he looked the more impressive of the two as well Casa Larada is the more likely winner of those two for me.

So Belaftone @ 5/2 with everyone bar Betfair

Race 2 (3.25am)

An interesting race this as the two at the front of the market Scholarly and Exemplar are the two best flat horses in the race, but both disappointed on their hurdling debut. The former made mistakes late on and finished 7th of 8 and the latter made a bad mistake at the 2nd at Pakenham last month and was pulled up. His jockey really likes him and he could be capable of better here.

I think it is worth taking them on though with a couple. Cheners looks a fair e/w price to me. Yes he is more exposed than the others here having had 8 hurdle starts, but it was his best run last time at Pakenham when he was 2nd in the the same race So Belaftone was 4th in. He looked the winner until Riding High flew home to grab him just before the line.  That was on the back of a fair run over course and distance so he could be improving despite having the most experience.

Bakery Hill is the other one I like as he looks just the type who can do well over hurdles. Anthony Freedman doesn't train many jumpers so it is interesting he is sending jumping and he won a BM58 over 2600m on his last start. He hasn't exactly been asked much in his hurdle trials so you can't take too much from them, but he has jumped well.

Longclaw is also making his jumping debut and could be up to this, but he his jumping hasn't been great in his 5 trials although he hasn't been asked for much so it could be he jumps better at racing speed.

Cheners e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred

Bakery Hill @ 19/5 with Bet365

Race 3 (4.05am)

This looks a 2 horse race with Sir Isaac Newton having his 2nd start over hurdles after his 3rd at Pakenham. At the top of the straight he looked like he was going to be the winner as he was cruising, but he didn't find a great deal when asked for an effort. Now it could be because he hadn't run in a race since 2018, but he didn't always find much for pressure on the flat and the fact he did the same at Pakenham does concern me. 

He clearly could win this, but I am going to oppose him with Inayforhay. He is making his hurdling debut, but was really impressive in a trial here last week when I was especially taken with his jumping. He's had a couple of runs on the flat this prep as well to help with fitness and I take him to beat Sir Isaac Newton.

Inayforhay @ 11/5 with Betfred

Race 4 (4.45am)

With the non-runners Diamond Star Halo looks like he is going to go off odds on in the Champion Novice Hurdle, but he looks capable of justifying the short price. He was a 15L 2nd to Ablaze on his hurdle debut in August and is 2/2 this prep with the form looking strong. He won by 7L last time and with he looks likely to get an easy lead with no other pace in the race. If there is little speed then that wont help Riding High who as mentioned above flew home at Pakenham. If the ground had been heavy then Flying Agent would have been the value as he was very impressive at Ballarat in August. That was on a Heavy 10 and I think he would have needed that sort of ground to be capable of beating the favourite.

Diamond Star Halo at Evs with Betfred

Race 5 (5.25am)

Georgethefifth is an ex New Zealand horse who has good form, but he does find it hard to actually get his head in front and for that reason I am going to try and take the favourite on. I will add though that he is locally trained and there is every chance this has been the target for him so it will be a surprise if he isn't thereabouts. Speedy Jax is very consistent and has won 4 jumps races, which is more than any other horse in the race. Tremec ran well last time at a big price and if he did happen to run to that form again then he would be a big player, but that was way above his over jumps form so that can't be a given.

It is annoying that we are down to 7 runners as I was going to back a couple e/w, but instead will have a couple of small win bets. Ours is a horse I have followed since he impressed when winning at Hamilton last April. Like the favourite he also used to be trained in New Zealand when he was a good horse. After that Hamilton win he went to Oakbank twice where he was poor in the Von Doussa and then 2 out. He's had a few trials this year as well as 3 flat starts to get him ready for this. It could be this is a stepping stone for something else, but if he is ready he should be much shorter in the betting.

Newbury is the other horse worth a pop at a big price. He has had 2 poor runs over fences this year, but he trialled well here last week beating Markwood. He was just beaten by Ours at Hamilton last April and then was a solid 4th in the Brierly over course and distance a year ago. If he brings that form to this contest he is a big player for me.

Ours @ 9/1 with Betfred

Newbury @ 10/1 with Betfred

Race 6 (6.05am)

The Brierly looks an open race and looked one of the more trickier races on the card. Slowpoke Rodriguez is taking his chance in this instead of the Grand Annual a race he ran in in 2017 and 2019. In 2017 he looked set to win until falling at the last and then last year he was 4th. His flat form leading into this has been good and he should go well, but I just wonder if he might want further. 

I put up The Dominator at Pakenham last tine, but he was just beaten by Euroman who benefitted from a good ride from Steve Pateman as his reign broke after the last. I do think The Dominator could reverse form though as that was his first chase run in nearly 2 years so he should come on for it, he is better of at the weights and he likes at here which is a different test to Pakenham. Pateman was offered the ride on The Dominator, but he does stick with Euroman. He might have got it wrong though.

I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Getting Leggie at a double figure price. He is improving on every chase start and was a good 2nd at Pakenham last time behind a good horse. He trialled well last week when finishing alongside Gold Medals and Zed Em. At a big price he is worth taking a chance on.

The Dominator @ 18/5 with Bet365

Getting Leggie e/w @ 12/1 with Betfred

Race 7 (6.45am)

The feature race on the card is the Grand Annual over 5500m and it is set to be a cracker. Ablaze is the odds on favourite for this and he does look a very good horse, being a decent flat horse as well as being 3 from 3 over jumps. He's never been this far over jumps, but won the Jericho Cup over 4600m on the level so it shouldn't be a concern. He can clearly win this, but he seems short enough for me. He was a late non-runner at Pakenham when due to race in the same contest as Zed Em and the fact he wasn't great in a trial here last week does make you wonder if he is going to have enough in his legs for this test. To be fair his jockey Irishman Shane Jackson wasn't concerned about his trial, is expecting a lot better here and can't understand why people are having a pop. The thing is though on the back of it you just can't back him at such short odds in my view.

Zed Em was 2nd in this to Gold Medals two years ago and then the placings were reversed last year. Gold Medals came into this on the back of finishing 2nd in the Brierly last year something he obviously isn't able to do this time around. He hasn't run over fences since finishing 2nd in the Australian Chase last May at Sandown, but he won the trail last week in front of Zed Em and Ablaze and I thought he looked really good. Zed Em was really poor at Pakenham where his trainer thought he got bored because of the long space between fences there. He was better in the trial, but I still find it hard to back him after that Pakenham run. To me Gold Medals is the value here.

Gold Medals @ 100/30 with Betfred

Race 8 (7.30am)

The Galleywood is the big hurdle race on the card and we have the 3rd odds on favourite of the meeting in the shape of Runaway. He was a classy horse on the flat, but had lost his way and hurdling has seen him find his form again and he has been impressive on both starts to date including at Pakenham last time. His winning times haven't been that quick though and there could be some value in taking him on. Ancient King looks a solid e/w bet to me. I thought he was impressive at Pakenham in what was his first jumps start for 2 years. He should improve again for that and he won in a quicker time than Runaway as well. Does have to give him 5kgs here though which is a lot, but he looks good e/w value. 

Robbie's Star wouldn't be out of this despite finishing 2nd to Ancient King last time, but he likes it heavy and it might not be testing enough for him to reverse that form.

I am going to back Woodsman as well, who was also quicker than Runaway when they both won here in March. That was his first run in Australia for the New Zealand trained runner and he had Euroman back in 3rd. He has since run in the Ternag Cup on the level and was a good 5th given it was a run that was just going to keep him ticking over for this. I will take him and Ancient King against the favourite.

Ancient King e/w @ 7/1 with Betfred

Woodsman @ 100/30 with Betfred

[Darran]

I got a chromecast last week and discovered I can watch Racing.com on it so if you have one you will be able to watch it on your tv if you want to watch it live or the replays when you wake up as I shall. As I keep saying it’s totally free to sign up to and their coverage is superb.

The meeting should be on Sky but the two times of late I’ve wanted to watch a Victorian meeting they have the rights to it hasn’t been shown. No idea why but it does need someone in Australia to switch the feed from the Australian sky racing channel to the Victorian meeting and I wonder if it’s something they’ve dropped since Coronavirus. Worth recording just in case though as like I say they do have the rights to show it.