Racing Chat - Saturday 21st March

[Darran]

Lots of good racing taking place in Australia on Saturday morning as they have one of the biggest days of the season at Rosehill. The Golden Slipper for 2yo is one of the biggest races on the calendar and that is one of 5 G1 on the card. I wont have anything in that race, but some of the other races interest me and there are a few ex UK runners and 2 William Haggas trained runners on the card.

The first of the Haggas runners is Young Rascal who goes in the G3 at 2.10am. He has top weight, but I think he deserves it on his achievements over here. He was impressive when winning a Listed race at Kempton in November and the 2nd has gone on to win a G2 at Meydan since. Before coming to Australia he went to Hong Kong to run in the Hong Kong Vase at Sha Tin and he ran as well as could have been expected. He is being trained with the Sydney Cup in mind in 3 weeks, but this doesn't look an overly strong contest and he should be up to going pretty close.

The favourite is Mugatoo who used to be trained by Dave Simcock. The best he managed over here was a win at Doncaster last May off 81, but he has been very progressive since going to Australia winning 3/3. He has been impressive in all 3 starts which have come over 1600m, 1800m and then 2000m last time when winning the Canberra Cup beating some of today's rivals. Given his win at Doncaster was over 1m6f (3000m) that takes some doing and clearly stepping up in trip is going to suit.

Strictly speaking on UK ratings Young Rascal is very well handicapped compared to Mugatoo, but we already know Mugatoo has got acclimatised to Australian racing and is improving fast. That tips the balance in his favour for me although I will have a small cover bet on Young Rascal as well. 

Mugatoo Evs @ Betfred

Young Rascal 4/1 @ William Hill and Betfred

The Ranvet Stakes is a G1 over 1m2f and is due off at 3.25am. Avilius was a very impressive winner of this last year and he was in flying form this time last year. The problem is he hasn't really been in the same sort of form this time around. What I will say though is his best form has seemed to come in Sydney and he is 3/3 at Rosehill. This prep he was a running on 5th over 1400m at Caulfield and then he did the same up to 1600m at Randwick. Last time he was a bit ordinary in the Australian Cup at Flemington though. He could easily bounce back here though and has a big chance. Verry Elleegant has a chance and was in front of Avilius at Randwick last time. I just wonder if he isn't quite as good over 2000m though.

William Haggas' other runner is Addeybb and he is favourite for this which isn't a massive surprise given his form. He landed the Wolferton at Royal Ascot beating Magic Wand which is obviously good from. He also won the Rose Of Lancaster at Haydock in August, before a new PB when 2nd to Magical in the Champion Stakes in October. I was listening to William Haggas on Sky Sports Racing this morning and he was thinking the ground wouldn't be soft enough although it should still be a Soft 5 at least. Yes he does enjoy desperate ground, but he shouldn't have an issue under these conditions. He wasn't great on his seasonal return last year, but the year before he bolted up in the Lincoln first up so that shouldn't be a concern.

Avilius is a good rival, but Addeybb is the best horse in the race for me and hopefully he can make a winning debut in Australia.

Addeybb 11/8 with William Hill and Betfred

As mentioned in my Moonee Valley preview I was in Australia at this time last year and although not actually at Rosehill it was great to actually watch Winx win her 4th George Ryder Stakes (4.05)live in the afternoon and enjoy all the build up instead of just watching the race when I got up. No Winx here obviously, but we do have star New Zealand horse Te Akau Shark who managed to finish 3rd in last year's Cox Plate. This prep he is 2/2 both in G1 company in New Zealand and at Randwick last time when beating Verry Elleegant and Avilius. His closing sectionals were impressive and he is the one they have to beat. 

Super Seth is a horse I have had in my black book (it is what Australian's call their tracker) since I saw him win at Ballarat on his debut a year ago as he was really impressive and it was clear he was going to turn into a good horse. He has now won 5 of his 9 starts which includes the Caulfield Guineas in October. This prep he has won a G3 at Caulfield 1st up and then finished a close 2nd in the G2 Futurity Stakes at the same track. He did well in a trial last week to get him primed for this and I think he looks the big danger to the favourite and I will save on him, but Te Akau Shark looks a level above him at the moment.

Te Akau Shark 11/10 with Bet365, William Hill and Betway

Super Seth 4/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Race 6 at 4.45 is the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Shadow Hero is the favourite having won the Randwick Guineas last time over 1600m. He was very strong late on running the final 200m in 11.67 which was the 2nd quickest of the day. We know he stays this far as he is already a G1 winner over this trip. I am going to take him on with Chenier though for Godolphin. He doesn't have the best of draws, but he does have McEvoy on top and you couldn't ask for a better man in the saddle in that circumstance. He is another one in went into my black book after winning his debut. That came at Sandown and he was really impressive. He bombed out on his 2nd start, but has returned in good form in two starts on his 2nd prep. Both were behind Alligator Blood at Flemington and he was strong late both times when 3rd in a G3 and then 4th in the Australian Guineas. In the latter he clipped heels as well and it was a huge effort. He looks like 2000m is exactly what he needs and he looked good in a trial last week. He looks set to run a big race here in my view.

Chenier 11/2 @ William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Race 8 at 6.10 is the Galaxy which is a handicap sprint. I backed Pierata in this last year and he just failed to catch the top class Nature Strip that day. I think he can go one better here despite top weight. He hasn't won this prep, but he has won twice 1st up and he has had two trials including winning one earlier in the month. He is one of the top sprinters in Australia and is worth backing to land this. It will be interesting to see Kementari back after he proved a flop at stud. He has trialled well and when last seen he was running huge races in all the big sprints without winning one. If in that sort of form I doubt he will be far away.

Pierata 4/1 @ William Hill, Betfred and Betway

Mornington Cup (5.10am)

Usually in Victoria on a Saturday one of the 3 tracks in Melbourne hosts the main meeting, but this Saturday is one of the rare times when it doesn't and instead we head to the coast and Mornington for their Cup (yes basically every track in Australia has their own Cup). This race is full of ex UK/Irish horses and the key piece of form for me is a race which featured a few of those at Caulfield last month. It was the first race on the card and at the time it wasn't fully known if what looked a track bias was certain to be the case, however there was. Basically anything which had to come from behind and wide had no chance. Aktau (ex Roger Varian who won at Glorious Goodwood on his last start here) won that contest but certainly had the perfect run and although he has a chance for sure he might not get things go as well here. 2nd home was Inverloch (ex French) and he led so certainly had the run of the race although he did go on to win the Victoria Cup over the same course and distance a week so is clearly in good form.

The two I like though were 3rd and 4th. My main bet is Future Score who was trained by Mick Appleby and owned by the very shrewd Horse Watchers. He has done really well since his Australian debut for Matt Cumani a year ago and he has won 4 times already as he has gone up through the grades. I've long thought he would be ideal for one of the country Cups and I would imagine that Matt has aimed him at this one for a while. He ran a really solid race to finish 3rd at Caulfield and now he is stepped back up in trip that should be perfect as his best win so far in Australia was at Flemington over 2600m. I think he's a really solid e/w play here. The former William Haggas trained Just Benjamin has had just the 3 starts in Australia and won the 2nd of them at Caulfield over 1800m when Aktau was behind in 3rd. He was wide with no cover last time and to finish 4th was some effort in the circumstances. His last win in the UK was at Musselburgh on Derby Day and that was over 2500m so he has been steadily building up to running over this trip by his trainer as is the norm in Australia. He looks progressive and is also worth having onside.

Future Score 8/1 with Betfred

Just Benjamin 3/1 with Bet365 and Betfred

(Sky don't have the rights to Mornington so the only way of watching it live or a replay will be via the superb Racing.com and it is free to sign up so no reason not to)

 

[BillyHills]

5 races from Thurles on ITV4!

140: Fakiera Nap 11/8 betvic
210: Brace Yourself 7/1 bet365
240: Sporty Yankee EW 15/2 betvic
310: Cut The Mustard EW 8/1 betvic
340: Well Joey EW 10/1 bet365

 

Sth African best bets

12.05 Turf: Afternoon Tea 11/10 betfred
1150 Dur: Fiftyshadesdarker 4/5 betfred