Borga Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 (edited) Hi all, a quick question that will hopefully yield a quick answer... If Team A is playing Team B, and I have a bookie's Over/Under prices at hand, how can I calculate the expected goals scored by both Team A and Team B? Simple example: Team A and Team B are both paying exactly the same price ($2.75) and the Over 2.5 goals is priced at even money ($1.95). I would assume that the expected number of goals for both teams is 1.25 (2.5 divided by 2). So a formula to work out expected goals for Team A would be (1-(A/X))*G where A = Team A's price ($2.75), X = Team A's price + Team B's price ($5.50) and G = expected goals (2.5). I'm pretty sure this works out, but just a bit unsure whether this formula holds for any circumstance. If Barcelona are a $1.05 favourite against a $30 underdog, with total expected goals of 4.5 (Over 4.5 = $1.95) then the formula would yield Barcelona = 4.35 expected goals and Underdog = 0.15 expected goals. It does seem right but it's nagging me that I can't confirm, partly because I'm not sure how the Draw price factors into things... So I only have one question, does all this have the ring of truth? Cheers in advance. Edited February 22, 2020 by Borga Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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