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  1. Thanks harry_rag, and you're right; using the quoted prices for Team Goals is ideal. The problem I'm having, which I probably should have specified, is that I'm having trouble finding these prices for historical data. I've been using OddsPortal for backtesting for some time now, which I've found valuable, but there are no prices given for Team Goals events. If you know of a resource that offers these prices historically, let me know. As an aside, the formula I gave doesn't tally very well with the prices you quoted for Barca-Eibar, suggesting that it's probably a bit flawed...
  2. Hi all, a quick question that will hopefully yield a quick answer... If Team A is playing Team B, and I have a bookie's Over/Under prices at hand, how can I calculate the expected goals scored by both Team A and Team B? Simple example: Team A and Team B are both paying exactly the same price ($2.75) and the Over 2.5 goals is priced at even money ($1.95). I would assume that the expected number of goals for both teams is 1.25 (2.5 divided by 2). So a formula to work out expected goals for Team A would be (1-(A/X))*G where A = Team A's price ($2.75), X = Team A's price + Team B's price ($5.50) and G = expected goals (2.5). I'm pretty sure this works out, but just a bit unsure whether this formula holds for any circumstance. If Barcelona are a $1.05 favourite against a $30 underdog, with total expected goals of 4.5 (Over 4.5 = $1.95) then the formula would yield Barcelona = 4.35 expected goals and Underdog = 0.15 expected goals. It does seem right but it's nagging me that I can't confirm, partly because I'm not sure how the Draw price factors into things... So I only have one question, does all this have the ring of truth? Cheers in advance.
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