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paparainbow

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Everything posted by paparainbow

  1. Is anyone familiar with simulationg basketball matches play-by-play? any good resource?
  2. Basketball prices are usually sharper than in soccer, that's why
  3. You can try and bet 1.000$ on 1.02 price everyday.. but i think that if you do so 1 or 2 times every 1000 bets will probably lose...
  4. Of course! But it's not about the software rather than the methodology
  5. you have to create a correct score model. keep in mind that expected goals are not the only variables needed. you should need also something like correlation or draw factor. then you reverse enginer your model based on the true probabilities that come out of bookies' prices
  6. Try to understand what odds are and their connection to implied probabilities and true probabilities. then check what value bet is
  7. You just repeated your first post, it doesn’t make sense. in any case i suggest getting raw data and making your cleaning/ wrapping ad hoc
  8. You should get raw data and have some data wrapping yourself. my dataset of choise is footystats (paid). with some simple querries you cAn isolate draws of the league you are interested. from there, for each team you have the time of each goal scored. They offer a column for each team, so for a game ended up draw let's say 2-2 you would have something like home/ 13, 33 away/ 35, 88 so you would have to read each like and clean it with some regular expressions in order to get what you want for your modelling.
  9. It's not about market rather than probabilities and margin applied to them. you have to understand that bookies rely on source markets in order to derive all other markets, hence they are all following the correct probabilities (provided their models are correct). additionally the most of them rely on pricing feeds so they all have same odds. You might find an edge for matches proced early, where market (asian) is not yet balanced and bookies copy each other with limited knowledge on what is going on. avoid top leagues since they usually are well studied.
  10. Avoid liquid markets/ sports/ leagues. always bet on nom popular leagues and derivative markets!
  11. Can u rephrase? It doesn't make sense what u r saying.
  12. This makes it sound like the quarter should simply bet the average of the (0:0) and (½:0) handicap. However on pages 6-9 of the link above they show that although the payoffs of the (¼:0) are the simple averages of the payoffs for the (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps for both teams. Only the odds for the team that does not benefit from the handicap has odds that are the simple average of it's (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps. Can someone please explain to me why the odds for the team that receives the ¼ goal advantage has odds which are different to the simple average of the (0:0) and (½:0) handicaps. Given that the payoffs are the same it seems that the probabilities must be different but why are they different? Thanks Baz PS(I realise this a similar question has been asked before but the answers given there don't answer my question) I am not sure i am following your logic, can you give a numerical example?
  13. sure, do you need odds ( the same set of odds applied to draw no bet and over under), stake and cashout offer only? 10 euros bet placed at odd 1.90 case 1: placement price is over/ uner current price [1.80 for the selection over, 1.90 for under] casout offer 9.25 case 2: placement price is draw no bet current price [1.80 for draw no bet home - selection , 1.90 for draw no bet away] cashout offer 9.45
  14. Can someone explain why books offer different cashout amounts for the same stake/ odds when it comes to draw no bet versus other 2-way markets? i mean let’s say 50€ stake at @1.75 draw no bet home, and @1.75 over 2.5 goals. the cashout offer is different. Can someone explain the logic (apparently draw no bet has refund for fraws, but i meed a more analytic answer than this). thanks!
  15. you do unserstand that you treat all matches as identical, which is not the case. In the long run, if you lose 1 out of 10 bets, you will lose money, since you have to take into consideration bookies margins.
  16. Let’s say that someone places a bet: 100€ @4.00 now inplay the odd goes down to @2.00 his potential winnings is 400€ and the fair cashout is: (4/2)*100= 200€ this is not the case though since books apply margin on cashout amount. Does anyone have any idea how to derive this? Assume 8% percentage for the cashout, i know for a fact that margin moves along with the odds. The longer the inplay odd the greater the marginand vice versa. Any idea how to calculate margin?
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