Hunter Chase - 3.30 Ludlow

[Darran]

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.

 

Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.

 

3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.

 

Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.

 

7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.

 

The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.

 

I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.

 

Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c

Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

[Mindfulness]

10 hours ago, Darran said:

Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c

Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Sorry @Darran, I am new to this horse racing lark and cannot seem to find forecast market on odds checker. Does forecast essentially mean you are predicting 1st and 2nd place? If so I'm guessing Betfair has best odds?