Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunters

[Darran]

Friday and Saturday saw two races with an impact on the Foxhunter market. Shantou Flyer had little trouble seeing off his rivals at Fakenham on Friday and that sets him up nicely for his attempt at going one better. Obviously his owner could have to choose between him and Bob And Co and at this stage I would be with the former as we know for sure he is suited to this test whereas Bob And Co has questions to answer on that front.

The Walrus at Haydock was won by Alcala who put in a very impressive performance and was clearly the best horse on the day. He travelled well and despite a mistake 2 out he was still too good for Wishing And Hoping. He was getting 10lbs from the 2nd, but I actually felt it made little difference to the result. Even though this was run on testing ground the race distance was just over 2m5f so it wasn't much of a stamina test certainly compared to what the Foxhunter will be and should Alcala qualify that will be a huge question mark. He would appeal much more as an Aintree horse to me. It is hard to see Wishing And Hoping going for Cheltenham after this. Granted he would have preferred more of a stamina test and he could be capable of reversing the result at Cheltenham, it isn't hard to think the stable will just rely on Hazel Hill. As I mentioned after he won at Taunton I would go to Stratford with him at the end of the season which would suit this front runner. The Dellercheckout ran no sort of race and just seemed to hate the whole experience (who can blame him given the conditions) and he surely won't be Cheltenham bound no either. As long as that experience doesn't leave a mark though he will win more races on better ground as this wasn't his true running.

In Ireland the big news was Staker Wallace managed to get himself qualified and he beat a horse who had won its previous two which gives the form a solid enough look. It will be interesting to see who rides what JP horse at Cheltenham, but he must have a really solid chance. I guess experience could be an issue as Cheltenham would be just his 7th run, but he looks like a horse who stays well although he has only ever run on soft ground so if it did come up quicker than that then it is an unknown. He is as big as 25/1 and that probably is on the big side although I won't be taking it just yet given I want to see if Stand Up And Fight runs this week and how he gets on if he does.

Rewritetherules also won for Shark Hanlon and looks set to line up for this now. It was a pretty unimpressive performance though as he struggled to beat a horse who was only a maiden winner and hadn't shown a great deal prior to winning that maiden. He did make a rapid move at 5 out though and was very keen at that stage which wouldn't have helped him see out his race. He was all out at the end and that form is a long way below what would be needed to win this and as much as I am sure he is better than that I can't help but think this will be a year too soon at 6.

There are just two more hunter chases for horses to qualify and Alcala is entered at both Doncaster on Wednesday and Fontwell on Sunday. Bob And Co is also in at Fontwell and it will be interesting to see if Nicholls runs both as he has kept them apart so far. Also Fontwell would need a good week weather wise for the meeting to even go ahead.

[Darran]

Interesting to read the quotes from Shark Hanlon in the Irish pointing section in the Racing Post regarding Rewritetherules. He got a bad stone bruise the week before the race and he only ran because the owners were local and it meant more for them to win on Sunday than at Cheltenham. His jockey said he got there too soon and he idled in front.

Enda Bolger was impressed with Staker Wallace and said Cheltenham is very much the plan although he needs soft ground.

[Darran]

Here is what Willie Mullins had to say about Billaway at his open day today

"Billaway runs in the St James's Place Foxhunter Chase. I thought he was very impressive in Naas, and I love Naas as a track to trial any horse for Cheltenham. He is a young horse coming through the ranks and put away some half decent hunters. I think he has a big chance. "

[Darran]

After thinking we might see some Cheltenham clues at Thurles today in the end I don't think we did.

God knows what Tom Hamilton thought he was doing on Mighty Stowaway as he set a stupid gallop along with Wounded Warrior. Given how soon he dropped away I was surprised to actually see him finish 5th and fairly play to Wounded Warrior to finish 3rd. The winner looked like he had no chance for most of the race, but managed to go slightly quicker than the 2nd after the last in a tiring finish. It could be said he gave a boost to Staker Wallace's form as last time out he was a 9L 4th to Lite Duties who was beaten by Staker Wallace on Sunday. I'm not sure given the way this race was run can be used as a solid guide though to be honest. He was beaten 49L by Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown last year and if anything he highlights that the Irish don't have any strength in depth in this division at the moment. I guess they might go to Cheltenham with him now, but I wouldn't fancy him.

Samurai Cracker fell at the last at Naas last time when still in contention in the race won by Billaway although I'm not sure he would have been in the first 3. He looked the winner for a long way, but was out on his feet after the last and he is really going to know he had a race. This did qualify him for Cheltenham should connections want to go down that route, but hard to think this was the ideal prep for a race in 3 weeks time.

Stand Up And Fight drifted like a barge all day, until betting opened on track and he was really well backed. That suggested connections were expecting a big run, but they got the opposite. I know it was his first run of the season and he was entitled to get tired in the ground, but he was beaten a long way out. He did travel quite well off the strong pace, but it wasn't really what you wanted to see as regards to Cheltenham. It will be interesting to see if he features in the entries next week, but Enda is really going to have to work his magic to get him ready for Cheltenham. Ucello Conti finished 1 place in front of Stand Up And Fight last year, but he seems to have gone backwards after finishing a 4L 2nd to Macs Legend on his seasonal return. I would be surprised if Gordon decided to send him over after this.

The one I haven't mentioned is Some Man. He had been prominent in the betting and was quietly fancied for Cheltenham, but he can't now qualify for the race. His wins in points didn't come in opens and he needed to finish 1st or 2nd here to qualify. He was never put into the race at all although it seems that was because the horse was hating the ground according to connections. On the face of it though it did just seem a terrible ride or that a he was being ridden with Cheltenham in mind. So there is no Cheltenham for him, but he is one to bare in mind for the other Festivals to come.

[Darran]

Just reading an interview with Phil Rowley in the Irish Fields Cheltenham magazine and he says he would only ever run one horse in the Foxhunter so Wishing And Hoping would only run if something happened to Hazel Hill. Interview was obviously written before Haydock.

[Darran]

So Bob And Co and Alcala qualified with ease at Fontwell yesterday. As I thought it would be it turned into a sprint over the last couple of furlongs and although looking like he would get beat Bob And Co got back up late on to win. I have seen a few people on a couple of forums suggest both horses had a hard race, but I suspect both have worked harder up the gallops and I can't see how anyone can think they had a tough race yesterday. They went a slow pace for most of the race and even at the finish neither horse was worked that hard. Maxwell didn't pick his stick up once and Angus wasn't exactly working that hard on the 2nd. The time for the race was by far the slowest of the meeting which backs up the fact they went no pace. Regardless what you think about their chances for Cheltenham in my view the one thing you can't say is a negative is the fact they had a hard race at Fontwell. Anyone who thinks that needs to watch a replay of the race and then watch the closing stages from Thurles on Thursday for comparison.In my view Alcala could have won the race with Angus had kicked on at 2 out, but obviously he didn't want to give the horse a hard race so tried to win cosily if possible and like I say he certainly wasn't vigorous in the closing stages. If he is in contention at The Festival he will certainly be given a stronger ride.

Reading between the lines I think the trainer thinks Alcala is the more likely to win at Cheltenham and I agree with him. I am still not sure he will stay though, but he clearly still retains plenty of ability. I think both horses would have a better chance at Aintree myself. What will be interesting is if Maxwell decides to run both Bob And Co and Shantou Flyer. If he does I think he will ride Bob And Co, but in my view last year's 2nd has a better chance of winning and I can imagine plenty of people will be ringing wanting the ride. Angus rode him to win his point at Larkhill last month, but you would imagine he would be on Alcala.

Wednesday at 12pm is when we find out who has been entered.

[Darran]

Maxwell has said today that shantou flyer will be his ride at Cheltenham and Bob and co will go to Aintree instead. He’s made the right choice in my view.

[Darran]

[Darran]

No real surprise that the likes of Stand Up And Fight and Ucello Conti aren't entered. Connections have also decided not to bother with The Dellercheckout as have connections of Wishing And Hoping. I am surprised that Earth Leader has been though given how he ran at Wincanton.

Other horses that were in the betting, but aren't running are

Caryto Des Brosses

Kruzhlinin

Mall Dini

Virak

Road To Rome

Black Hercules

Art Mauresque

Seeyouatmidnight

Burning Ambition

[Darran]

Time to make a 2nd bet. Derek O'Connor has said at a Cheltenham preview night that he expects to be riding Staker Wallace and not Minella Rocco. That is the right move for me and he surely can't give Staker Wallace as bad a ride as he gave Stand Up And Fight last year. I am a big fan of Derek and that was a rare poor ride from him. As for the horse he ran a very good race at Naas after a long time off. As stated at the time I am dubious of the form of that race anyway because of the fact it turned into a sprint and I think he can reverse form with the winner. He beat a good yardstick to qualify and although the Irish don't look a strong set of hunter chasers again this year, for me he is their number 1 contender. To be fair the British hopes don't look to have too much strength in depth to them anyway. With Derek set to ride he is surely going to go off single figures on the day and could be a shorter price than Minella Rocco.

Staker Wallace 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred or 10/1 if you want it with a NRMB bookie.

Also David Maxwell has stated in tomorrow's Racing Post that he hasn't actually decided who to ride in the race yet, but will only run one of his two as he doesn't want to be on the wrong one.