mrmuzeman Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Hi, Just thinking last night about backing and laying favourites. It surely stands to reason that if you blindly backed every favourite in every race you would consistently lose money. This is where I get confused and I know I must be wrong. If you lose money by doing this why by laying every single favourite in every race would you not consistently make money? There must be an obvious reason why and im stupid but I just cant think why it wouldnt work. :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Re: Stupid idea on laying faves Bigger prices than SP, and commission. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves If you do want to try this Id suggest laying the favourites in handicaps. Got a small record from last year based on SP. I know thats not including the bigger price or commission but the results would more than compensate for these. RULES: Clear fav, Jt favs are no bet. Handicap flat race. 8-16 runners SP Evns - 5/1 Lay to win 10pts RESULTS: Bets:75 Winning Lays:55 Void(due to price or jt fav):11 Lost Lays:9 Prices of lost lays:7/2,4/1,3.85,5.0,3.7,5.2,4.5,4.8,3.6 Lowest profit: -15 Highest profit:356.50 Total profit: 238.50 Dont know how successful this would be longterm but if you decide to lay favs you're better off focusing on handicaps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Re: Stupid idea on laying faves Laying odds-on favourites in flat handicaps makes a pretty big profit, but selections are rare Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 15, 2004 Share Posted September 15, 2004 Re: Stupid idea on laying faves If you have a database including SP then you can check the profit or loss when backing favourites at SP. This would be relatively reliable because the mechanism for the SP is reasonably consistent. The idea that if you make a loss backing horses simply laying them results in profit is not a bad idea. But for the idea to work the price needs to be there. This includes overcoming the bookmakers overround. The problem is you have no accurate information on available price on the exchanges. Since this info is missing you have no way of testing if it will actually work. The price on the exchanges can be quite different from SP. Sometimes the difference between back and lay price will be that far apart that statistically you cannot make a profit either way. Sometimes the price is above SP, even the lay price ! . But then other times the price moves under SP. So don't drop the idea, thats good. You just need to find out if there is profit and that depends on the price. Extended period of "live price" testing would appear to be the only way to find out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves Taking odds from betfair earlier today, £10 lay on every favourite at that time gives: Total staked 210 Total returned 704.23 Yield 235% Winners 15 Losers 6 Strike Rate 71% Current bank 704.23 Profit/Loss 494.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest whoneedsrio Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Re: Stupid idea on laying faves martin, You haven't got it right with laying a bet, if you lay a fav to £10 you are the bookie in effect & if the horse wins you will have to pay the odds to £10 to the person who matches your bet. If the horse loses you get the other blokes £10. So today if you had offered to lay every fav to £10, ignoring any jt/co favs the most you could have returned is £210 if every fav had lost the 21 races. Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 Cheers Thanx for the thoughts guys :ok Thought i may get a good hearted ribbing for this idea but maybe seems it has some basis in reality at least. One question, I have a record of favourites that I would have potentially backed (paper trialing a system for a while). If these favourites would have lost me a fair amount of cash, would this same process finding the horses I use but laying the selections instead of backing them be a profitable one? Also the lay prices are usually the next small step up in price than that of the price to back are they not? eg to back 3.6 / to lay 3.65 Surely this small difference in price is pretty irrelevant to profits as it is such a small margin? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Re: Cheers You have to remember commission too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted September 16, 2004 Author Share Posted September 16, 2004 yeah I always bare in mind commission but theres comission if you win either backing or laying anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Re: yeah Yes, but you said that you would lose backing these favourites, in which case there isn't as much commission Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 16, 2004 Share Posted September 16, 2004 Re: yeah mrmuzeman, check this post at flatstats for some info on the Betfair price: www.flatstats.co.uk/ppp/viewtopic.php?t=3229 at www.oddschecker.com you can find the exchange prices for today's racing. be carefull when paper trailing, make sure you do it long enough, i've had many good idea's that unfortunately did not last after a couple of weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Lays What are the best factors to look for choosing favourites to lay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves Martin, The best factors to look for are. Maidens horses that are first time out and short odds cause of there breeding. Also look out for short price favs on heavy ground where there form suggests they will not like the ground :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Laying Thanks, much appreciated Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves there are others martin but start with the above see how you get on :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves and also my personal rule is nothing over 3.00 :ok if you losea few at 6's or bigger then your bank will shrink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Laying Thanks, I'll paper test it for a while but it all seems very risky, have you two done well with laying previously?:b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves yeah i have been doing it since 25th Sept (not includinh the last few days) 70 lays 53 winners and 17 losers :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest martinthevet Posted October 10, 2004 Share Posted October 10, 2004 Laying Sounds good but how does that equate with profit/loss? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves ive made 130% on the bank since starting 25th sept :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Posted October 11, 2004 Share Posted October 11, 2004 Stupid idea on laying faves ive doubled my bank since last monday.JT will verify that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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