paparainbow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

paparainbow Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) On 11/17/2018 at 5:03 PM, laprikon said: Variables P(Aw) = Probability of team A winning P(d) = Probability of draw P(Bw) = Probability of team B winning P(A|1) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 1 goal = 0.191856-0.30565416*x+1.42165*x^2-1.21885522*x^3, where x=P(Aw)P(A|2) = Probability of Team A winning by exactly 2 goals = 0.13482-0.553848*x+1.71645*x^2-1.08417508*x^3, where x=P(Aw)TO(A|X) = True decimal odds of team A with handicap X Notes and Sources [1] To find true odds of Team B, use the following equation: 1-TO(A|X). https://dropmefiles.com/qXmY2 You can use this spreadsheet can you re-upload the spreadsheet, please? thanks for replying with respect to your formulas, what are those numbers? and what is the formula for TO(A|X)? Edited January 3, 2019 by paparainbow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

Maxvroy Posted January 30, 2019 Share Posted January 30, 2019 Would love to Learn more about the calculations you made laprikon 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

scream2012 Posted April 15, 2019 Share Posted April 15, 2019 Laprikon Please you can make and European handicap in file. Thanks European handicap - 3 - 2 - 1 1 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...

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