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Found 10 results

  1. How would you adjust your rating of that match (supremacy) when a player is out? (Probably a key player, e.g. Messi? CR7?) Any statistical way to quantify the adjustment of a player? As for now I just adjust my system base on experience.
  2. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  3. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  4. I will be starting with £5 and betting only £1 per bet. I will bet only on matches where the odds are maximum of 1.25. When starting with £1 all winnings will go onto the next bet until i reach £2. If i win i will cash in on the £1 profit and restart with £1. If this bet loses however i will be using a martingale type system where i double the stake. So if the £1 bet loses i will go up to £2 and attempt to reach £4. If the £2 bet loses we accept defeat and our balance will receive a £3 deficit (£1 for first bet and £2 for the second). Hope this makes sense it is a little confusing at fir
  5. Hi Guys, I started a 'LAY' startegy on horse racing and am currently at day 72. Ive turned £1k into £5.9k so far in the 72 days. My aim is to get to £100k which if i keep on this track should be achieved within another 3- 5 months. I post the selections daily, and have recorded all the results to the date if anyone is interested? Would anyone like to follow the rest of the challenge on here? or even do it also? Let me know.
  6. well my previous betting systems simply failed so i thought i would give this a go. i will be starting with £2 (thats all i have in my account) and with the power of research i will be trying to build a solid bank i have decided i will mostly be doing doubles and singles and every bet has to be supported with some solid research. (starting from bet 3 the staking plan is no more than 20% of entire bank roll on each bet but there will be exceptions)
  7. Hello Punters, It has been a long time since my last post but I am back, hopefully with something good as I can honestly say this is my life's work. My previous posts have been about finding value in season bets for the Dutch Eredivisie. The quest for value in football bets has never been off my mind but I have been busy with other, more serious issues in my life. Currently life is (almost) back to normal and I am back on the road to Valuetown A little background on myself: I am a 41 year old software developer from Amsterdam with a passion for football and statistics. This last s
  8. Thought I'd finally break through the lurker wall, and become a contributor. I'm just doing this for fun (the correct score doubles), but it may become a serious earner if I can tweak it enough. I've seen some great stuff so far, but never really strayed from my other methods. I thought this is the ideal way to thrash it out once & for all. Enjoy! - NOTE: Odds will be worked out afterward based on Betfair odds at the time of posting. Rules: My strategy is based purely on the strength of Whoscored.com and Soccerstats data, from previous results. All previous scorelines and goals a
  9. betting to lose and winning a brilliant system where they guarantee you to win !!!! please check it out i rate this system 10/10
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