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Found 10 results

  1. How would you adjust your rating of that match (supremacy) when a player is out? (Probably a key player, e.g. Messi? CR7?) Any statistical way to quantify the adjustment of a player? As for now I just adjust my system base on experience.
  2. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  3. Hi, i have a question that initially I thought it was simple, but that’s not the case i guess. Let’s say i have a model, and i can calculate the probability of all correct scores for a given match ( it really doesn’t matter the model as long as i have a probability density function f(x,y) that returns correct score x-y). How can I calculate asian handicaps 0, 0.25, 0.5, 0.75 etc? 0.5 is easy, i take all matches that x>=y (0-0,1-0,2-0....., 1-1,2-1,3-1,..... ) similarly 1.5: x>=y+1 etc what about the asian handicaps? Any idea?
  4. I will be starting with £5 and betting only £1 per bet. I will bet only on matches where the odds are maximum of 1.25. When starting with £1 all winnings will go onto the next bet until i reach £2. If i win i will cash in on the £1 profit and restart with £1. If this bet loses however i will be using a martingale type system where i double the stake. So if the £1 bet loses i will go up to £2 and attempt to reach £4. If the £2 bet loses we accept defeat and our balance will receive a £3 deficit (£1 for first bet and £2 for the second). Hope this makes sense it is a little confusing at first but its something that popped into my head and thought i would give it a try
  5. Hi Guys, I started a 'LAY' startegy on horse racing and am currently at day 72. Ive turned £1k into £5.9k so far in the 72 days. My aim is to get to £100k which if i keep on this track should be achieved within another 3- 5 months. I post the selections daily, and have recorded all the results to the date if anyone is interested? Would anyone like to follow the rest of the challenge on here? or even do it also? Let me know.
  6. well my previous betting systems simply failed so i thought i would give this a go. i will be starting with £2 (thats all i have in my account) and with the power of research i will be trying to build a solid bank i have decided i will mostly be doing doubles and singles and every bet has to be supported with some solid research. (starting from bet 3 the staking plan is no more than 20% of entire bank roll on each bet but there will be exceptions)
  7. Hello Punters, It has been a long time since my last post but I am back, hopefully with something good as I can honestly say this is my life's work. My previous posts have been about finding value in season bets for the Dutch Eredivisie. The quest for value in football bets has never been off my mind but I have been busy with other, more serious issues in my life. Currently life is (almost) back to normal and I am back on the road to Valuetown A little background on myself: I am a 41 year old software developer from Amsterdam with a passion for football and statistics. This last summer I have taken quite a lot of time to work on a model that spits out a number for home win, draw, away win and over/under 2.5 goals for the Premier League, Bundesliga, Primera Division and Eredivisie. The number being the estimated chance of the outcome occurring. And this number can be translated into a price. Sometimes this price, including a safety margin, can be found at one of the bookie websites. More often, it cannot. All I can say about the models is that I use statistical analysis and that a lot of time has gone into this project. I will not disclose any details regarding the models I have built and the way I have built them. I am by no means super intelligent but I am passionate about programming, statistics, football and gambling and I am willing to stick with a problem for a long time if I believe it is worth pursuing. The idea of building these models has been on my mind for years. I have read a lot of books, articles and studies on the subject. It is my dream to work on this full-time. A lot has been written on the concept of value in betting and for some reason a lot of people think this concept does not apply to football. I could not disagree more. Sure, if I were able to pick winners each and every time, I would not mind getting a price of 1,10 every time. But I am really bad at picking winners. I follow my models' recommendations which will often contain long-shots with bloated prices. And there is always a safety margin in place. When looking at the price of a bet a couple of concepts are important to consider. Let's look at a fictitious match where the #1 of the Premier League plays at home against the #14. Would you take 1000-1 on the underdog? I would certainly hope that you would. If you could go all-in pre-flop in a Hold'em cash game with deuce seven against AA for a return of 20-1 you would definitely take it every time because 7-2 has almost 12% equity against AA pre-flop. Chances like these arise quite often in a football season. What if FC Barcelona won a 100% of their home games. Football would be very boring indeed. For the rest of the season I will be posting recommendations. Maybe, at the end of this season, I will have nothing to show for in which case no one will care about my models and methods anyway and I will be laughed off of this forum Will I be able to live my dream? Time will tell. Until now, with only 12 weeks of live testing I have made a rate of return of 32,12%. This is even less than expected but very hopeful. Some weeks the return is negative and other weeks the return is a huge plus. Short term results will vary hugely but the long term results will reflect the value of the system. You can lose AA vs KK in Texas Hold'em 4 times in a row but you will always take the AA because in the long run you will win. There is always variance, ready to kick someone's behind or to hand out presents so short term results don't say very much either way. I realize full well that spitting out a percentage on this forum doesn't mean anything. I could be making it up or exaggerate. You should of course not take my word. At the end of this season the final rate of return will show where my models roughly stand. I have tested them against historical data so I know which result I would like to see in the end. In the coming months I will be posting my recommendations, probably around every Wednesday. The Dutch and German leagues still have 14 and 16 rounds to play this season, 15 rounds for the Premier League and 17 for the Primera Division. I will probably have between 10 and 15 picks per round resulting in approximately 170 picks until the end of the season. Also I will post the results for the previous round and the overall rate of return. For the overall rate of return I will start at 0 again, needless to say. I am very excited and I hope that I have created something valuable, not only for some extra cash but also for the sport of it! The proof of the punting is in the eating! Game on! Greetings, Noneckdude PS I want to thank football-data.co.uk for their free data and their fantastic articles
  8. Thought I'd finally break through the lurker wall, and become a contributor. I'm just doing this for fun (the correct score doubles), but it may become a serious earner if I can tweak it enough. I've seen some great stuff so far, but never really strayed from my other methods. I thought this is the ideal way to thrash it out once & for all. Enjoy! - NOTE: Odds will be worked out afterward based on Betfair odds at the time of posting. Rules: My strategy is based purely on the strength of Whoscored.com and Soccerstats data, from previous results. All previous scorelines and goals are taken into consideration, and then I use what I call "my gut" to pick correct scores. Starting Bank 100pts Each selection will generally be 16 bets (16 x doubles), usually 4 x correct scores, and 2 x matches. 02/02/16 Dijon vs Valenciennes 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 West Ham vs Aston Villa 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1 STAKE: 16PTS RESULT: +49.50PTS BANK: 133.50PTS
  9. betting to lose and winning a brilliant system where they guarantee you to win !!!! please check it out i rate this system 10/10
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