Northumberland Plate 2018 Tips & Trends

[BillyHills]

2:05  Newcastle (AW)   30 JUN 2018ITV

2m½f (2m56y) Stobart Rail & Civils Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2) (3yo+)

 

Previous Winners

 

 

10/10 Ran within 52 days (5 ran in Chester Cup)
9/10 Aged 4-6
7/10 Drawn lower than 13
6/6 Rated over 95

5/6  carried over 9st
15/21 Finished in first 3 last time out
15/21 Had won at the trip previously
20/21 Had run over the trip previously

 

[BillyHills]

Card

 

10/10 Ran within 52 days (5 ran in Chester Cup)
We lose Lord George, Arch Villain, Natural Scenery, Withold

9/10 Aged 4-6
We lose Nakeeta, Watersmeet, Top Tug, Clever Cookie, Curbyourenthusiasm, Byron Flyer
 

20/21 Had run over the trip previously
We lose On To Victory, 

5/6  carried over 9st
We lose Lagostovegas, Amazing Red, Sir Chauvelin, Cayirli

15/21 Finished in first 3 last time out
We lose Time To Study, Soldier In Action, Island Brave
 

7/10 Drawn lower than 13
We lose Prince Of Arran

Selection

 

1pt Higher Power 9/1 William Hill

 

[Trotter]

14/16 – Came from stall 14 or lower
14/16 – Aged 6 or younger
12/16 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/16 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
 

The above trends have given me a short list of 4 - Amazing Red, Withhold, Higher Power and Lagostovegas

Rather unusually they are the first 4 in the betting at the moment...…….  ……… all single figure odds

To get down to two I've dumped Withhold on the basis that he hasn't had a prep run. (and 7/2 is ridiculous in a competitive 20 runner handicap !)

I've also dumped Lagostovegas because he won the two and half miler at Royal Ascot last week and he probably neds longer to recover and this race will be an afterthought

that leaves me with …….

Amazing Red at 7/1

Higher Power at 9/1

[NOSBOR]

I HAVE BACKED AMAZZON RED AT 8/1 AFTER GOOD WRITE UP- FROM  ED. DUNLOP STABLE.

                                    GOOD LUCK