sportpunter Posted July 16, 2005 Share Posted July 16, 2005 Hi all, good to see some baseball being talked about, its a great sport to bet on with many opportunities because of the amount of games and the fact that the season is sooooo long. Been lurking around for awhile here thought i'd contribute some picks: Bets for the next day:STL d. HOU (MARQUIS,JASON d. OSWALT,ROY) @ -105 for $170.12COL d. CIN (FRANCIS,JEFF d. MILTON,ERIC) @ +125 for $119.82CLE d. CHW (WESTBROOK,JAKE d. GARLAND,JON) @ +100 for $79.94BAL d. SEA (CHEN,BRUCE d. MOYER,JAMIE) @ +121 for $194.12Surprising line for BAL to be the dog here, not only that but a pretty decent sized dog too. Chen hasnt been very good of late but is a decent end of the rotation guy and this SEA lineup doesnt scare anybody. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morgan Posted July 16, 2005 Share Posted July 16, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Errr..... I see 24 others have read this thread but don't want to blow their street-cred. Being a Lounger of very little shame could I respectfully ask for a translation? OK so I've worked out the dogs (large and small) could you explain the rest please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 17, 2005 Author Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Sorry, since these are worked out into American odds, if there is a + sign then its an underdog, so $2.10 converts to +110 and $3.65 to +265 If its a - sign then its a fave so to calculate use 1 + (100/x), where x is the absolute value of a negative line. i.e. if it's -110 you calculated 1 + 100/110 which is equal to 1.909 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 17, 2005 Author Share Posted July 17, 2005 Re: Baseball picks 1-2-1 yesterday, got a little unlucky to lose two 1 run games, COL had the lead 4 times! and still lost, while BAL lost in the bottom of the 9th. Pitching change in the CHW game accounts for the push. Bets for the next day: PHI d. FLA (PADILLA,VICENTE d. WILLIS,DONTRELLE) @ +128 for $129.71 ARI d. SD (HALSEY,BRAD d. STAUFFER,TIM) @ +125 for $140.82 SF d. LA (HENNESSEY,BRAD d. WEAVER,JEFF) @ +130 for $76.76 ANA d. MIN (LACKEY,JOHN d. MAYS,JOE) @ -104 for $194.12 TEX d. OAK (YOUNG,CHRIS d. HAREN,DANNY) @ +141 for $199.41 NYY d. BOS (LEITER,AL d. WAKEFIELD,TIM) @ +155 for $112.41 Chris Young has been a very solid starter thus far and even though the As have been on fire the last month, they look to have come up way too short tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Welcome to PL SportsPunter. :ok Best to use decimal odds, or people on this forum won't be able to understand your posts - the UK punters have been used to fractions for years, but decimals is now understood, however american odds aren't. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kak Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Top picks SP, but unfortunaltey for me I took Texas in a 5 team acca. They done me for £1000 from a £5 stake:wall :puke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks That's accas for you. :( Singles and Doubles CK. :ok Trebles and higher and the bookies are laughing. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Kak Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Yeah your right PR. Gonna have to stop betting with the heart and more with the head:cry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 18, 2005 Author Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks I'll see if i can write a quick formula to change to decimal odds, i use an excel spreadsheet to generate my bets so i think i can do this pretty easily Excellent results. 5 wins from 6 bets yesterday. $853.23 was bet for a profit of $603.02 Bets for the next day:COL d. WAS (KIM,BYUNG-HYUN d. ARMAS JR.,TONY) @ +157 for $48.71PIT d. HOU (WILLIAMS,DAVID d. BACKE,BRANDON) @ -110 for $141.35CHC d. CIN (WILLIAMS,JEROME d. CLAUSSEN,BRANDON) @ -103 for $186.53SF d. ATL (CORREIA,KEVIN d. SOSA,JORGE) @ +120 for $150.53BAL d. MIN (BEDARD,ERIK d. SILVA,CARLOS) @ +100 for $209.82Jerome Williams continues to be an underrated starter, the Cubs are certainly the better overall team, the Cinci starter here is below average at best and their bullpen is just putrid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieFlack Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Hi could you also put in a bit more detail about why you are making the picks. Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StevieFlack Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks For Monday night It should be noted that the Yankees have had to recall Kevin Brown early, without a rehab start, due to lack of pitchers.He has a 5.4 ish era this season and is expected to make 80 pitches at most.If he's rusty and not really ready to go, the decent texas lineup could use up his 80pitches pretty quickly. Two ways to look at it, either a texas win @2.00 seems value- or go for the over, but Stan james have yet to flag up the over/under.Texas is a hitters park, if the weather is decent there could be a lot of long balls in this game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted July 18, 2005 Share Posted July 18, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Here is how you convert american odds into decimal / fractional, Hope this helps....... American to Fractional: If US odds are positive: - e.g. Convert +160 into Fractional: - Add “/100†gives us 160/100 160/100 is the same as 8/5 So +160 equals 8/5 If US odds are negative: - e.g. Convert –110 into Fractional: - Add 110 to the end of “100/†100/110 is the same as 10/11 So –110 equals 10/11 American to Decimal: Odds against (positive number): - e.g. Convert +170 into Decimal: - 170 divided by 100 = 1.70 1.70 + 1 = 2.70 So +170 equals 2.70 Odds on (Negative number): - e.g. Convert –250 into Decimal: - 100 divided by 250 = 0.4 0.4 + 1 = 1.40 So –250 equals 1.40 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 19, 2005 Author Share Posted July 19, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Perfect explanation there Rugbylad Nice call on the over StevieFlack Any wins a good win. 3 wins from 5 bets yesterday. $736.94 was bet for a profit of $175.35 Bets for the next day:PIT d. HOU (SNELL,IAN d. RODRIGUEZ,WANDY) @ -110 for $332.82SD d. NYM (LAWRENCE,BRIAN d. BENSON,KRIS) @ +128 for $192.88FLA d. ARI (BURNETT,A.J. d. VAZQUEZ,JAVIER) @ -101 for $223.59BAL d. MIN (CABRERA,DANIEL d. LOHSE,KYLE) @ -102 for $100.41OAK d. ANA (HARDEN,RICH d. WASHBURN,JARROD) @ +100 for $180.88Betting on doubleheader games are a bit tricky, however the PIT lineup and backups are all about the same so even if they sit some starters in game 2 here they should be fine whereas HOU will have some serious holes in their lineup if they use their benc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 20, 2005 Author Share Posted July 20, 2005 July 20 2-2-1 on the day, up a little overall. PIT decided to switch starters in their DH accounts for the push. $1030.58 was bet for a profit of $108.94 Bets for the next day: SD d. NYM (WILLIAMS,WOODY d. GLAVINE,TOM) @ +107 for $264 BAL d. MIN (LOPEZ,RODRIGO d. RADKE,BRAD) @ +110 for $146.47 TEX d. NYY (BENOIT,JOAQUIN d. SMALL,AARON) @ -110 for $172.94 ANA d. OAK (BYRD,PAUL d. ZITO,BARRY) @ -104 for $119.82 Yanks calling up yet another starter, Aaron Small is really not ready for prime time and making your first start in TEX is going to be a rude awakening. Expect a high scoring game, but when the smoke clears TEX should come out on top. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Sportspunter, would it be wise to bet on the -1.5 for Texas or not get greedy and go for the money line. Greed and betting is not a good combination, maybe i'll trust my instinct here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 20, 2005 Author Share Posted July 20, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Loki, betting on the run line on home teams is dubious b/c if they are winning by 1 after 8.5 innings they dont hit in their last At bat, so i'd stick to the money line here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted July 20, 2005 Share Posted July 20, 2005 Re: Baseball picks :ok Thanks Sportpunter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 21, 2005 Author Share Posted July 21, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Crappy day, 0-4 overall. $703.23 was bet for a loss of $703.23Bets for the next day:COL d. PIT (FRANCIS,JEFF d. DUKE,ZACH) @ +160 for $134.82SEA d. TOR (PINEIRO,JOEL d. TOWERS,JOSH) @ +107 for $63.88BOS d. CHW (CLEMENT,MATT d. BUEHRLE,MARK) @ +118 for $81.53NYY d. ANA (JOHNSON,RANDY d. COLON,BARTOLO) @ -104 for $175.59Yanks are hot and Randy Johnson starting as a pick em vs the Angels, something looks wrong with this line. Granted RJ has been hit a little this year, but his Ks are still there and he isnt walking anybody so might be a bit of bad luck, take the Yanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 22, 2005 Author Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Bank down on the day. 1 win from 4 bets yesterday. $455.82 was bet for a loss of $278.08Bets for the next day:COL d. PIT (WRIGHT,JAMEY d. WELLS,KIP) @ +151 for $44.82MIL d. CIN (OHKA,TOMOKAZU d. ORTIZ,RAMON) @ +109 for $91.59BOS d. CHW (WAKEFIELD,TIM d. GARLAND,JON) @ +115 for $74.29TEX d. OAK (YOUNG,CHRIS d. HAREN,DANNY) @ -102 for $299.82TOR d. KC (WALKER,PETE d. HERNANDEZ,RUNELVYS) @ +103 for $72.53NYY d. ANA (LEITER,AL d. LACKEY,JOHN) @ +107 for $83.65Chris Young has been solid this year and while OAK is hot and their starter Danny Haren has been putting up good numbers overall, his last few road starts have been bad and Arlington stadium will be no picnic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted July 22, 2005 Share Posted July 22, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Decided to take over 8.5 Detroit/Minn game. Lets all bust those bookies tomorrow:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 23, 2005 Author Share Posted July 23, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Boy really struggling here lately, 1-5, losing the big bet TEX in a slugfest. Try and turn it around, lots of plays tomorrow, but no huge ones.$666.7 was bet for a loss of $554.2 Total results this year stands at 13 wins from 34 bets. Total bet: $4706.27 - Total Profit: $-805.45 - Total ROI: -17.1% Bets for the next day: CHC d. STL (WILLIAMS,JEROME d. MORRIS,MATT) @ +195 for $26.65 COL d. PIT (KIM,BYUNG-HYUN d. WILLIAMS,DAVID) @ +147 for $182.29 WAS d. HOU (ARMAS JR.,TONY d. BACKE,BRANDON) @ -105 for $187.24 ARI d. ATL (HALSEY,BRAD d. HAMPTON,MIKE) @ +113 for $66.71 TB d. BAL (KAZMIR,SCOTT d. PONSON,SIDNEY) @ -101 for $69 MIN d. DET (BAKER,SCOTT d. VERLANDER,JUSTIN) @ -103 for $121.24 TOR d. KC (BUSH,DAVID d. CARRASCO,D.J.) @ -104 for $157.76 DET d. MIN (DOUGLASS,SEAN d. SILVA,CARLOS) @ -101 for $82.94 Byung-Hyun Kim has made us some good money this year, COL is certainly not a team that you can back consistently on the road, but PIT has come up pretty short here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 24, 2005 Author Share Posted July 24, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Nice day 5-1-2 overall, some pitching changes accounted for the pushes. $893.83 was bet for a profit of $315.58 Total results this year stands at 18 wins from 40 bets. Total bet: $5375.63 - Total Profit: $-489.87 - Total ROI: -9.1% Bets for the next day: LA d. NYM (PENNY,BRAD d. BENSON,KRIS) @ +131 for $117 ARI d. ATL (VAZQUEZ,JAVIER d. RAMIREZ,HORACIO) @ +103 for $130.94 TB d. BAL (KAZMIR,SCOTT d. BEDARD,ERIK) @ +149 for $57.88 BOS d. CHW (ARROYO,BRONSON d. CONTRERAS,JOSE) @ -109 for $187.94 NYY d. ANA (MUSSINA,MIKE d. WASHBURN,JARROD) @ -104 for $225 The White Sox have a better record so far this season, but there is little doubt that Boston is the better team, with big Frank Thomas out the ChiSox lineup is pretty ordinary while the BoSox lineup is devastating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 25, 2005 Author Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Small up day, 2-2-1 overall, counting TB game as a push since Kazmir was posted as the starter, but most probably went 3-2. $718.76 was bet for a profit of $45.93 Total results this year stands at 20 wins from 44 bets. Total bet: $6036.51 - Total Profit: $-443.94 - Total ROI: -7.4% Bets for the next day: PHI d. HOU (LIDLE,CORY d. PETTITTE,ANDY) @ +148 for $87 COL d. NYM (ACEVEDO,JOSE d. GLAVINE,TOM) @ +117 for $107.12 CIN d. LA (HARANG,AARON d. LOWE,DEREK) @ +120 for $172.94 TEX d. BAL (BENOIT,JOAQUIN d. CABRERA,DANIEL) @ +141 for $162.18 Fading Daniel Cabrera again, although he has impressive stuff, his chances of a disaster start is way bigger than most, the Texas lineup is solid all the way thru so getting +141 here is way too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-Loki- Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks A's/Indians Over 7.5:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Think Stans have their line wrong for the 5 innings run line in the Texas vs Baltimore game. its currently over 3.5 @ 1.83, i think it should be more like over 5.5 @ 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rugbylad Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks not run line sorry, i meant Totals! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effigy Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Jesus, that's low. I'll have a peice of that please. Gotta be worth a big bet with the plethora of sluggers in that match-up!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effigy Posted July 25, 2005 Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Bet365 have their 4 1/2 line total at 4.5, so StanJames have definatly got something a little mixed up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 25, 2005 Author Share Posted July 25, 2005 Re: Baseball picks Geez, if you can get 3.5 or 4.5 on 1st half of the TEX/BAL game then u should take that for sure as long as the moneyline on it isnt outrageous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportpunter Posted July 26, 2005 Author Share Posted July 26, 2005 Re: Baseball picks 2-2 yesterday but a positive day overall. $529.24 was bet for a profit of $94.06 Total results this year stands at 22 wins from 48 bets. Total bet: $6565.75 - Total Profit: $-349.88 - Total ROI: -5.3% Bets for the next day: PHI d. HOU (LIEBER,JON d. OSWALT,ROY) @ +183 for $81.35 COL d. NYM (FRANCIS,JEFF d. ISHII,KAZUHISA) @ -105 for $115.24 SD d. STL (WILLIAMS,WOODY d. MULDER,MARK) @ +137 for $211.06 CLE d. OAK (WESTBROOK,JAKE d. BLANTON,JOE) @ +138 for $151.59 SD is struggling right now, but they are a different team at home and w/the Cards banged up as they are right now their lineup isnt a juggernaut right now, so take the +135 or so here. Adding totals betting now: Bets for the next day: WAS vs ATL (HERNANDEZ,LIVAN vs SMOLTZ,JOHN) , Over 7.5 @ +104 for $48.21 COL vs NYM (FRANCIS,JEFF vs ISHII,KAZUHISA) , Under 12.5 @ +101 for $348.29 STL vs SD (MULDER,MARK vs WILLIAMS,WOODY) , Over 7.5 @ +104 for $164.87 CIN vs LA (MILTON,ERIC vs PEREZ,ODALIS) , Over 8 @ +105 for $262.06 TB vs BOS (HENDRICKSON,MARK vs CLEMENT,MATT) , Under 10.5 @ -114 for $143.81 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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