Torque Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 Djokovic plays again at the US Open and again he's prohibitively short. He's up against Londero who's not a bad player but not one that should be beating him here, so the plan is to do what I've done in other Djokovic matches which is to hope for a slow start from him so I can get a better price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 28, 2019 Author Share Posted August 28, 2019 Bet 8. Djokovic to beat Londero @ 1.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 29, 2019 Author Share Posted August 29, 2019 Djokovic won but was hampered by an injury so I won't back him again at this tournament. Next stake £192.97 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 The only thing I can see in the football today is Burnley v Liverpool unders. My line is the 5.5 goal line, but I'm not going to play before the start for a few reasons. Firstly, if any forward line can get a glut of goals then Liverpool can and that has to be respected. Secondly, there's every chance Burnley can get a goal in this one as Barnes is in great form and Liverpool are yet to keep a clean sheet plus Alisson in goal is a big part of their defensive stability and is a big miss. Thirdly, Burnley played a cup match in the week and although a lot of their players were rested it's still going to have disrupted their preparations for this match, whereas Liverpool have had a clear week to get ready for this. I'll see what happens in the first half and if I'm going to play it'll be at half-time and it'll be the 5.5 goal line or higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted August 31, 2019 Author Share Posted August 31, 2019 Two first half goals means the 5.5 goal line is about the same price it was before the start. I'm going to pass on this one though. Liverpool look dangerous and I can see Burnley scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 1, 2019 Author Share Posted September 1, 2019 5.5 goal line between Burnley and Liverpool came in easily but I don't have any regrets about not getting involved. If I'd played and lost then I'd have regrets. Tomorrow I'm looking at a goal in the match between Arsenal and Tottenham. I want a better price than I can get now so I'll request a lay of 0-0 at 11 as long as Aubameyang plays for Arsenal and Kane plays for Spurs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 1, 2019 Author Share Posted September 1, 2019 If there's no goals in the first half an hour I should get on. I'll post to confirm if I do. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 1, 2019 Author Share Posted September 1, 2019 Early goal for Spurs scuppers my plans. Moving on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 Next bet is the 2.5 goal line between San Marino and Belgium. I'd like better than 1.03 though so I'll hope for a slow start from Belgium so I can get 1.05. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 Bet 9. Over 2.5 goals between San Marino and Belgium @ 1.05 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 Half-time and it's only 1-0 to Belgium. It could have been worse though, as the goal Belgium scored arrived very late in the first-half. The over 2.5 goal line went out to about 1.30 before the goal and it's now back down to about 1.15, so fingers crossed Belgium get another couple as San Marino tire. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 Finished 4-0 to Belgium. Next stake £202.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 6, 2019 Author Share Posted September 6, 2019 Normally I try to put up a few words about why I'm backing something before the off, but I didn't get a chance tonight so instead I'll do it retrospectively and also reflect on how the bet panned out... San Marino against Belgium pitted the worst international team in the world against the best, and the discrepancy between the two teams was highlighted by the fact you couldn't even back Belgium for the win on the exchanges as nobody wanted to lay them. With a win for Belgium a virtual certainty, the next question was how many would they win by. Ahead of the start, the line I was looking at was over 3.5 goals at about 1.10. I wasn't keen to back that many goals though, because as much as it was highly likely there would be a lot of goals ultimately there's little incentive for a big favourite to run up a big score - if it happens it happens, but if not and as long as the win is secured then it's no big deal. The over 2.5 goal line was about 1.03 and that felt to me like the minimum number of goals Belgium would get as a 1-0 or 2-0 win against such limited opposition would be slightly embarrassing for the best team in the world. As 1.03 was shorter than I wanted to back at, I requested 1.05 in-play and hoped for a slow start to the match and within about 10 minutes the bet was matched. As expected, Belgium were dominating in all the key stats but they hadn't yet scored and that continued until about five minutes before half-time when they finally broke the deadlock. At this point the bet I bought at 1.05 was now trading at 1.15 - still very likely to win but much less likely than before the match started - and I wasn't feeling confident as I wondered if Belgium might just get a second goal and then sit back for a comfortable win. Fortunately, and this was one of the reasons I took the bet, the Belgian manager is attack-minded and was no doubt unhappy with the lack of goals and so sent on a couple of substitutes and it was those substitutes that quickly scored the goals needed for my bet to land. At this point I didn't care what happened during the rest of the match, but I kept an eye on it to see if the over 3.5 goal line would land. Heading into injury time it looked like there would only be three goals, but with almost the last kick of the game Belgium got a fourth. I'm glad I didn't back four goals or more though - I'm trying to find things to back that win comfortably and that definitely wouldn't have been a comfortable win if I'd been on it. Sportwetten 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 The next possible bet for this thread is unders between Brighton and Burnley. The line I'm looking at is 4.5 goals and like previous Burnley matches that I've looked at, I want Pope, Tarkowski and Mee to be playing at the back. I'm not sure how Brighton will set up - I think they play a back three with wing-backs - so I'll look at that nearer the start. Initial thoughts are that this could have a few goals in it as Brighton are playing much more attacking football this season under a new manager, plus Burnley seem to be playing more expansively as well even though their team and manager have been settled for a few seasons now. Once I've seen the teams and figured out how they might line up I'll either back under 4.5 goals before the start, or I'll leave it and see if there's an early goal which might give me the chance to back under 5.5 goals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 The teams are in and Burnley have named the defensive players I want and it looks like Brighton are playing with a back four. It bothers me though that there were four goals in the corresponding fixture last season, when Brighton had a defensive manager. I've decided to try to play it safe in this one and ask for 1.05 on under 5.5 goals. I'll post if it gets matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 Nothing doing in the Brighton v Burnley match. Would have been a winner if I'd got on, but too many question marks for me around Brighton and their new manager's tactics and formations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 14, 2019 Author Share Posted September 14, 2019 Next up is laying 0-0 between Watford and Arsenal. There should be goals in this, as Arsenal continue to create chances up front and concede them at the back - plus Watford have a new (old!) manager which should mean players trying to impress and more chance of a goal for the home side. Right now it's about 20's to lay 0-0 and I'd like better so I'm requesting 15's and I'll let it run. As always if I get matched I'll post to confirm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Bet 10. Lay 0-0 between Watford and Arsenal @ 15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 15, 2019 Author Share Posted September 15, 2019 Finished 2-2. Next stake £216.60 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 I'm looking at laying 0-0 in Arsenal's match against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League that kicks off shortly. The Gunners have made changes, as they often do in these matches, but importantly Aubameyang is in the team and I don't think the changes in defence make them any stronger in that area. Frankfurt did well in this competition last season and are on a great run at home, plus they have a useful goalscorer in Dost leading their front line so at least one goal looks likely here. I'm asking for 15's in-play and will post to confirm if I get on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Bet 11. Lay 0-0 between Eintracht Frankfurt and Arsenal @ 15.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 19, 2019 Author Share Posted September 19, 2019 Arsenal won 3-0. Next stake £231.76 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 20, 2019 Author Share Posted September 20, 2019 (edited) I'm passing on the unders tomorrow between Burnley and Norwich. The main reason is Norwich - they've started the season like they finished the last, namely with the attitude that they'll score more than they concede and win games that way. That's obviously no use to me, and whilst they should find it difficult to get past the Burnley defence it probably won't be that difficult for Burnley to create chances against a leaky and undermanned Norwich defence. All in all it's a recipe for goals and it's an example of a bet that if I take it and it loses I'll be kicking myself. No doubt it'll finish 0-0 after saying all that, but if that does happen it won't change what I think are good reasons for leaving this game alone and waiting for something better. Edited September 20, 2019 by Torque Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 21, 2019 Author Share Posted September 21, 2019 Easy winner in the end on the unders in the Burnley v Norwich match - although it didn't necessarily look like that after two early goals for Burnley. Next up will probably be a goal in the Arsenal v Aston Villa match tomorrow. I'll have a look and put it up if it's going to be a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 I can't see any reason not to bet on a goal being scored when Arsenal play Villa, so that's going to be the next bet if I can get a better price than the 30's on offer right now to lay 0-0. I'm going to ask for 18's and see if it get matched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 Was seconds away from getting matched and Villa score Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 59 minutes ago, Torque said: Was seconds away from getting matched and Villa score Was always going to be another goal in this one, especially with us conceding first. Did you not think at all of getting on Over 1.5 goals? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 No I'm trying to stick to my plan and that doesn't include over 1.5 goals. Agree though that it looked likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JdsGooner90 Posted September 22, 2019 Share Posted September 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, Torque said: No I'm trying to stick to my plan and that doesn't include over 1.5 goals. Agree though that it looked likely. Fair enough, what is the target now as this started at 1.10 and is now 1.05? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted September 22, 2019 Author Share Posted September 22, 2019 It's not 1.05 exclusively. It's just been that way the last few bets. I'll still be taking 1.10's Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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