Glorious goodwood day 2 wednesday

[richard-westwood]

Goodwood stakes

Wind place and sho    98.88

The cashel man   98.87 

These two are a bit clear ....I really fancied the cashel man as he looks the perfect type for this race ..didn't expecthim to be fav but 13/2 isn't bad .....the 16/1 on wind place and sho is fab value for an improvingvtype with such good form ....nice bets 

Wind place and sho  5 Pts win 16/1 bet365

The cashel man  5 pts win 13/2 will hill 

[richard-westwood]

Sussex stakes 

Galileo gold   99.56

The gurkha   99.51

Bookies have this pretty evenly matched but for me the 2/1 on Galileo gold is better vslue ....guineas horses have a fantastic record in this and I think there's more to come .....

Galileo gold 10 pts win 2/1 corals 

[richard-westwood]

Gordon stakes

Platitude    99.01

Prize money 98.98

Platitude sets the standard overall so no surprise to see fav....4/1 isn't bad odds ....Prize money is a bit of an enigma ....certainly has ability and is capable of winning this if you forgivevhis last run which was too bad to be true ...better than that ..

Platitude   7 Pts win 4/1 bet365

Prizemoney 3 pts win 8/1 betvic 

Edited July 26, 2016 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

Natwest stakes 

Fort bastion    98.96

Jacks revenge  98.94 

Afjaan is clear fav here on 4/1 for dettori .....very difficult to weigh up the value of the form as hes done nothing special so looks vulnerable to me and 4/1 is a big no no .......Fort bastion and jacks revenge both have good form at yhe distance and conditions suit ....if the fab floundered then it's wide open ...I'll take him on 

Fort bastion  5Pts ew 12/1 sky

Jacks revenge 5 pts ew 12/1 sky 

[richard-westwood]

Ebf breeders hcap

Dessert of life  98,87

Wholesome   98.84

Open race ....but top 2rated are 10/1 and 12/1 so although its a tricky race ...very good value onnoffer so I'll play 

Dessertoflife  5 pts win 12/1 sky

Wholesome 5 ptscwin 10/1 sky 

[BillyHills]

Sussex Stakes

3.10 Goodwood: Wednesday 27th July

Day two of Glorious Goodwood is all about the Sussex Stakes, probably the most important race of the whole week where the different generations battle it out for a first prize of over £560,000. Ten runners have been declared which is the biggest field in recent times and the 3yo’s dominate the betting with Galileo Gold and The Gurkha at the head of the market.

Nine of the last ten winners have took this prize on the back of a victory at Royal Ascot in either the St James’s Palace Stakes or the Queen Anne Stakes, this year we have two Ascot winners in the field, Galileo Gold won the St James’s Palace and Ribchester took the much lesser Jersey Stakes.

Selection: Click Here To Bet Galileo Gold @ 2/1

 

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[BillyHills]

Three For Wednesday

3.55 Perth: Click Here To Bet Ballykan @ 7/4 

3.45 Goodwood: Click Here To Bet The Last Lion @ 100/30

5.30 Galway: Click Here To Bet Road To Riches EW @ 9/2

 

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[beaker1]

2.00 Goodwood – Matchbook Betting Exchange Goodwood Stakes (Handicap)

There aren’t too many races run over as far as this in Britain so finding a selection has to be done mostly on guesswork, unless of course there are horses in the line-up with proven form.
Nicky Henderson won this in 2015 and he saddles No Heretic here who won the Chester Cup over 2m2f towards the beginning of the season. He often travels strongly but he does usually get home when ridden towards the head of proceedings. However he has been well beaten on his two runs since Chester and Jamie Spencer gets aboard The Cashel Man instead.

David Simcock’s four-year-old hasn’t had a great deal of racing but has won three times including when winning at Newmarket last August. He went up 11lb for that effort but his run at York earlier this season suggested that mark had legs in it. He found the nature of the Northumberland Vase a little tight last time but wasn’t beaten far and this stronger stamina test should play into his hands.

One horse with plenty of stamina is Sir Mark Prescott’s Moscato who rarely runs a bad race and despite finishing seventh, he was only beaten two and a half lengths in last season’s Cesarewitch. Having finished fourth in the Ascot Stakes last month, he also ran a fine race to fill the same position in the Northumberland Plate last time. He shouldn’t be stopping at the business end of the race but the handicapper might just have his measure at this stage.

The nine-year-old Teak won this race two years for Ian Williams so must come into consideration but the nine-year-old will need to bounce back to form, having turned in a couple of below-par efforts on his last couple of runs.

Another from a National Hunt yard who looks of interest is Oceane who looks as though he was ahead of his mark when winning at Ascot a few weeks ago. A smart juvenile hurdler last winter for the yard, he has only gone up 2lb for beating Steve Rogers and the fast ground should be too his liking here. Clearly this extreme trip is something of an unknown but it would be foolish to rule him out.

James Eustace’s Wind Place And Sho must also come into the mix having won over 2m2f at Pontefract when last seen on a racecourse. The four-year-old drew readily clear of his rivals that day to win by six lengths and on the face of it, a 5lb rise doesn’t look too excessive. His biggest obstacle could be the draw having been drawn out wide in stall 20, but he is unexposed over the trip and there could be more to come.

However, the one I like the most is Ralph Beckett’s POYLE THOMAS who was off the track for nearly two years when being beaten a short-head at Newmarket back in May. The winner Desert Encounter has since won again and looks a progressive performer. Poyle Thomas stepped up to two miles in the Northumberland Vase last time and acquitted himself well, travelling well for a long way and in the end he was only beaten a length by the winner. His only previous try over further than 2m saw him finish eleventh in the Cesarewitch but he was only a four-year-old then and I think he is worth another try over this distance here. He travels well and if he stays, then I think he holds a good each-way chance at around 10/1.

MY Advice

POYLE THOMAS – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (BetVictor)

 
2.35 Goodwood – BeringIce Gordon Stakes (Group 3)

Despite not looking like the most vintage renewal of the Gordon Stakes, it should still prove to be most competitive and Sir Michael Stoute could well hold all the aces. Ulysses hasn’t been seen since finishing well down the field in the Derby so has a bit to prove still having only landed a Newbury maiden to date. He was well-fancied but may have just been a bit of a hype horse and was well and truly found out at the highest level. This is certainly an easier opportunity but he is yet to race on anything faster than good to soft and his only attempt at 1m4f was hardly inspiring, albeit that it was in the Classic.

Therefore, PLATITUDE is taken as the one to beat on the back of his decent second in the Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket earlier this month. He is yet to add to his debut maiden win at Doncaster last June but has been pitched into some hot company and was far from disgraced when staying on into second behind the particularly well-handicapped Primitivo in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot on his penultimate start. The drop back a furlong to 1m4f should be in his favour here and the less stiff finish than the July Course can also play to his strengths. Stoute has captured this price five times this millennium with superstars such as Conduit and Harbinger along with Snow Sky who carried the same Khalid Abdullah silks as the selection to victory two years ago.

Aidan O’Brien doesn’t seem to have a particularly strong hand here given he landed last year’s renewal with Saturday’s King George winner Highland Reel but Shogun still rates as an interesting challenger as the pick of Ryan Moore. A brother to last year’s Oaks heroine Qualify, he has been employed as a pacemaker in both the English and Irish version of the Derby, so this looks to be the first time that he will tackle 1m4f as a contender in his own right. Nevertheless, he has been highly tried at this sort of level and will likely come up short once more.

His stablemate The Major General is a Listed winner over this trip so clearly has some ability but has a bit to find with a couple of these on recent form, notably Qatari Hunter. Jim Bolger’s colt has gone from strength to strength since winning on his handicap debut off a mark of just 74 in early June. Since then, he has reeled off a four-timer and landed a valuable handicap at Leopardstown last time out. He is clearly going the right way and although he steps up to 1m4f for the first time, he looks as though the extra two furlongs should suit him down to the ground. Galway had been mooted as an option for him but his canny handler seems to have found a decent opportunity at Group 3 level here and he could well have the required improvement to figure at the finish.

Steel Of Madrid wasn’t disgraced when fourth behind subsequent Eclipse winner Hawkbill in the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot given the ground was very much on the soft side for him. Prior to that, he stayed on well to land the Listed Fairway Stakes at Newmarket and shaped as though he should cope with the step up to 1m4f here. His main issue has been settling early on and if a steady pace is on offer here, he could blow his chance in the early part of the race.

MY Advice

PLATITUDE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (bet365, William Hill, Coral)

  
3.10 Goodwood – Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) 

In a race dominated by three-year-olds over the past 10 years (6 winners) and in a sequel to the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, we see possibly the best three milers from the three-year-old age group, all Guineas winners, face off once again – Galileo Gold won the first renewal of the three-way battle, with The Gurkha in second and Awtaad in third. Hugo Palmer’s colt seemed to enjoy the cut in the ground at Ascot and benefitted from a masterful ride from Frankie Dettori, slipping his rivals while they eyeballed each other coming around the final bend. He is clearly a strong stayer at a mile who is very dangerous if left alone on the lead at any point, especially with the master Dettori on board. Although he’s never been outside of the first three in his career and while I find it difficult to see that record ending here, a price of 15/8 on fast ground that he’s avoided on the whole over the past year, doesn’t make huge appeal.

The Gurkha looked to be the unlucky loser in that contest at Royal Ascot, having to be switched out from a trapped position on the rail before staying on strongly to take second, but not being able to catch the English 2000 Guineas winner. He subsequently was outstayed by the improving Hawkbill up the Sandown Park hill in the Eclipse, but it was certainly not a bad effort and the return to this trip should suit him well. It will also be the first time that he’ll encounter good ground since his five and a half-length romp in the French Guineas. While he clearly handles the softer surface, he looked a very nice animal on the faster surface and if he is positioned a little further forward this time, I think he’s got every chance of reversing the form with Galileo Gold. The worry is that the Eclipse could well have taken a lot out of him, but he’s had a good three weeks to recover from that so should be ready to go for Aidan O’Brien.

The final member of the Guineas winners’ club is the Irish champion, AWTAAD. Trained by Kevin Prendergast, the Cape Cross colt was a stunning winner of the Irish Guineas on ‘yielding’ ground, putting Galileo Gold to the sword by the tune of two and a half lengths. However, he was third at Royal Ascot, not seeming to quicken on the sticky, soft ground, so this quicker ground should be much more suitable for him to put his speed down on, even though Prendergast has said the horse doesn’t want the ground too ‘hard’. The course will undoubtedly water the track to maintain a good/good-to-firm balance so it shouldn’t be too fast for him and if you take the way he beat Galileo Gold in Ireland literally, he has to hold very decent claims here. His price of around 7/1 looks much too big considering the form lines between the three Guineas winners and how short his two rivals are, so he’s certainly some excellent value considering this fast ground could well draw out even more improvement, as it does for many sons and daughters of Cape Cross.

In addition to the Guineas winners, there is one more three-year-old in the race in the form of the Richard Fahey-trained, Godolphin-owned Ribchester. He was excellent in the Jersey Stakes, where he beat a decent-looking field by two and a quarter lengths and he was third behind Galileo Gold in the 2000 Guineas. He wasn’t stopping at Newmarket, so the trip shouldn’t be an issue, but I just wonder whether he’s a better horse with some cut in the ground. Even so, he looks to be Godolphin’s first choice in this, with James Doyle on board, despite the presence of the classy, course-loving Toormore, so he needs plenty of respect.

Speaking of Toormore, he heads the older contingent and brings some superb course form into the equation, winning the Lennox Stakes last year and at this meeting in two of the last three years (2nd in the Lennox Stakes in 2014, winner of the Vintage Stakes in 2013). His defeat of Dutch Connection at Sandown on his reappearance was a nice effort, but apart from a fourth-place finish in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, he’s been a little disappointing, especially last time out in the Summer Mile on fast ground at Ascot. It may be that he needs a bit of cut in the ground at this stage of his career and it’s worth noting that only two five-year-olds have won this in the past ten years.

Lightning Spear beat Toormore home in the Queen Anne on soft ground and that was a huge performance from a horse that enjoys a much sounder surface, so I think we can expect the David Simcock-trained five-year-old to confirm form with that rival here. He’ll have his work cut out giving 8lbs away to the three-year-olds, but out of all the older horses, he’s the most lightly-raced so far in his career and he’s certainly the pick of those older horses battling to trouble the classic generation.

MY Advice

AWTAAD – 1pt win @ 7/1 (bet365, SkyBet)

 
3.45 Goodwood – Victoria Racing Club Molecomb Stakes (Group 3)

Probably one of the quickest races of the week and with fast ground forecast, it looks all set for a top-class performance from one of these juveniles.
Mark Johnston looks to hold a strong hand and according to the market, his main hope is The Last Lion who has yet to be out of the first two on his first five starts. He won the Brocklesby at Doncaster at the beginning of the season and got his head back in front last time when winning the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown. It is worth bearing in mind that both of those victories have come on soft ground however and it is possible that he is better with cut in the ground, so I think he is worth taking on.

His stablemate Yalta is dropping back to five furlongs for the first time, having disappointed in the Coventry and the July Stakes on his last two outings. He had looked pretty smart before then, making all here over six on his debut before drawing readily clear of his rivals at Pontefract next time. He showed plenty of speed when winning here earlier in the season so I wouldn’t be too concerned about the drop back in trip but he needs to bounce back.

David Evans’ Rapacity Alexander has a Listed win to her name having won in France last month, making all under a well-judged ride. She was well-fancied to follow up at Deauville in Group 3 company next time but was disappointing so comes here on a bit of a retrieval mission.

It can be dangerous to rule out any runner from the Aidan O’Brien stable but I find it hard to see Sportsmanship getting his head in front here. The War Front colt got off the mark at the third attempt last time beating stablemate Courage Under Fire, but that horse let the form down at Galway last night. This will be his first try over the minimum trip but he will need to take a big step forward on what he has done so far.

Last year’s winning stable must have a good chance of retaining their crown as they saddle Big Time Baby this time around. Tom Dascombe’s colt is two from three so far and his only defeat came in the Norfolk Stakes where his trainer believes he just went too fast early on. He is drawn towards the stands side rail so may be able to get out and force the pace and I think he can run better than his 10/1 price suggests.

However, he may have his work cut out to beat Ed Dunlop’s GLOBAL APPLAUSE who hasn’t done much wrong to date and made it two from three when winning the Listed National Stakes at Sandown in May. He finished fifth in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot last time despite not appearing to enjoy the softer ground and back on a sounder surface, he should be much more effective. He is drawn out towards the middle which might make life slightly more difficult for Frankie Dettori but he looked one of the leading two-year-olds in the early part of the season and I think he can land a first Group success here.

MY Advice

GLOBAL APPLAUSE – 1pt win @ 4/1 (Paddy Power, SkyBet)

 
4.20 Goodwood – Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies’ Stakes 

This looks to be a most competitive fillies’ maiden and Richard Hannon holds a strong hand with a quartet of runners. He has a couple of very interesting newcomers worth keeping an eye on headed by Sean Levey’s mount Promising. The daughter of Invincible Spirit was an expensive purchase as a yearling and looks to be all speed on paper being out of a 5.5f-6f dirt winner in the US. His other debutant Curry is another well-bred sort being out of Group 3 Brownstown Stakes winner Marvada but she may need more time as her dam did (came into her own as a four-year-old).

Hannon’s best chance could come in the shape of Suffragette City although she has to dispel a below-par effort at Newmarket last time. She is bred to be potentially very classy being a half-sister to the recently retired Illuminate and shaped well amidst greenness to finish third on her Windsor debut. She ran better than the ‘6’ next to her name suggests on her latest start having encountered trouble in running (although her tendency to hang left handed was a contributing factor) and has the scope to land a contest of this nature once she overcomes her inexperience.

That Newmarket contest could have a strong bearing here with two other re-opposing rivals taking their place in the line-up. Grand Myla fared best of the trio when causing a bit of a shock to finish third at 66/1. That was a much better effort than her racecourse bow at Bath but she proved pretty keen throughout and was allowed to dominate from the front which doesn’t look like being the case here.
Bouquet De Flores was a warm favourite having been backed into odds-on but couldn’t justify the strong market support. She is bred to be a decent filly as a half-sister to French Listed winner Inspiriter out of a Listed-winning dam in Floristry but seemed to lose her chance at the start having steadied herself in the stalls. She is entitled to benefit from that experience but this looks like a tough race for one that showed distinct signs of greenness.

Another that was well fancied to make a winning debut was Bithynia and the expensive Breeze-Up filly performed with credit despite only finishing third. That race at Sandown was worked out very well with Grizzel (1st), Naafer (2nd), Night Law (5th and Whiteley (last) all getting their heads in front since the race in May. She looked as though she was possibly done for a bit of speed as she had the run of the race on the rail so the step up to 6f should be ideal for her here and the fact that she still has an entry in the Lowther Stakes certainly catches the eye.

However, marginal preference is for Andrew Balding’s PERFECT ANGEL who looked clued up on her Newbury debut last month and is entitled to build on her ½-length second. The daughter of Dark Angel was out the back early doors but travelled powerfully into the race only to be worn down late on. That could be attributed to the pretty testing underfoot conditions and the faster going here should suit her better as she is out of a Kheleyf mare in The Hermitage (herself a fairly smart juvenile who finished second in the Listed Hilary Needler Trophy).

MY Advice

PERFECT ANGEL – 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (bet365)

 
4.55 Goodwood – EBF Veuve Clicquot Fillies’ Handicap.

A tricky little puzzle to try and solve but it may be prudent to side with the three-year-olds in receipt of a more than handy 10lb allowance.

Rioca looked to be progressing into a black-type filly for Sir Mark Prescott last campaign and was rewarded when a decent second in the Listed Montrose Stakes on her final start. It is a bit of a surprise that she has not yet reappeared this campaign and that would count against her here as she looked to take a few races to get up to speed last term. Nevertheless, if she carries on from where she left off her juvenile season, she will have a big say in matters here.

However, preference is for recent Newmarket scorer SHAAN who looks to be on a steep upward curve at present and can land her third win of the season. The Al Shaqab filly finished a good second in a competitive Kempton maiden at the back end of last season and put that experience to good use when shedding her maiden tag at the next time of asking from two subsequent winners. She was quietly fancied on her handicap debut at Chelmsford and ran respectably in second behind Mise En Rose who landed a valuable pot at the Newmarket July Festival earlier this month. She followed that up with a fine third taking on the boys at Sandown before the step up to 1m2f really seemed to bring the best out of her last time out as she made all for a decisive victory. A 4lb rise for that victory seems more than fair and I don’t think the assessor has found the ceiling of her just yet.

Sagely is an interesting contender given how progressive she was in the early part of the season. The daughter of Frozen Power broke her duck at Wolverhampton back in March and made a mockery of her opening mark of 80 when sluicing up at Ripon a couple of months later. She was turned out quickly under a penalty at York and ran with credit to finish second to the subsequent Listed Lyric Stakes winner Diploma, just showing signs that her recent exertions had taken their toll late on. However, she now has a bit to prove on a career-high mark of 90 and on the back of a particularly disappointing effort at Newcastle last time out (for all that she was stepping up markedly in grade to pattern company).

She is the more fancied of the Ed Dunlop pair in this with top weight Sagaciously also representing La Grange Stables. The four-year-old is a half-sister to Sagely which makes this a bit of a family affair and is another that has questions to answer on the back of a disappointing display last time. She has done most of her racing over longer trips than this but was successful over an extended 1m2f at Doncaster three starts back and arrives here on only a 5lb higher mark. It will prove no easy task to give weight all round here though.

One that has proved a bit of an enigma this season is Intimation who hasn’t really hit the expected heights since hacking up in a Leicester handicap over a year ago. She remains lightly-raced with the promise of more to come given that she is bred in the purple and trained by the master of older fillies and mares Sir Michael Stoute but hasn’t been given any help by the assessor and remains on a career-high mark of 90 despite a couple of average efforts. The suspicion is that she may prove more effective with a bit of cut in the ground as well which makes her a bit of a risky proposition at present.

MY Advice

SHAAN – 1pt win @ 7/2 (SkyBet, BetVictor)

 
5.25 Goodwood – NatWest Stakes (Handicap) 

Currently, the market for this 20-runner contest is centred on the William Haggas-trained Afjaan, a progressive four-year-old who hasn’t been out of the first two in his four starts on the racecourse. Draw and ground should prove no issue for him and the Henrythenavigator gelding should certainly be up there challenging at the very least come the finish. The form of his close second at Lingfield last-time-out to Red Box was franked superbly as the winner of that race went on to win the Listed Valiant Stakes at Ascot (albeit as a result of a stewards’ enquiry) and Taurean Star, who finished third, ran well behind Mustashry in a very hot handicap at the same venue. There really aren’t many negatives, but the price does count as one – 7/2 in a 20-runner handicap is always short and especially on this track, where 20 runners can cause chaos, especially if he misses the break a little from stall 1. Frankie Dettori will have to be at his best to make sure the horse won’t get trapped in.

Pastoral Player won this contest last year and comes into this year’s renewal on a 5lb higher mark, but with decent claims of repeating the feat once again. The nine-year-old has suddenly hit form again in the past couple of months, winning over C&D and then finishing a close second on soft ground in a conditions event at Doncaster, a length and three quarters in front of the re-opposing Jack’s Revenge. That form alone probably wouldn’t be good enough to win this, especially with an 8lb swing in the weights, so you might expect the placings there to be reversed. Jack’s Revenge may not have won since July 2012, but he’s posted good efforts in defeat in many of his races over that period – he’s now down to his lowest mark since that win and is in good form, so a return to the winners’ enclosure may not actually be far away.

Winner of a C&D handicap in early June on similar ground to that he’ll encounter here, Mick Channon’s Arnold Lane holds fair claims of making an impact here on his best form. However, he will have to bounce back in a big way from his last few runs after that win, the best effort of those three races being a modest seven-length second in a claiming race at Epsom. However, his style of leading should keep him out of trouble and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a positive so he can’t be written off at a double-figure price.

Another at a fairly big price who has some decent form in the book is David O’Meara’s Rex Imperator, who enjoys this faster ground and is a solid horse at this level. The Royal Applause gelding has won over six furlongs and despite never having won over seven; his turn of foot will be useful at a tight track such as Goodwood. A mark of 90 is by no means unworkable, as he showed when third to Brazos in a competitive heat at Doncaster last time out and he could go very well under Daniel Tudhope if the draw (12) or the trip doesn’t inconvenience him.

However, there is another at double figure odds that really catches my eye and that’s Dean Ivory’s three-year-old TWIN SAILS. After three disappointing runs at the start of this season in some very good company, the drop down to a handicap in this class combined with the application of first-time blinkers helped him to put in an excellent performance in an apprentice handicap at York where he gave away plenty of weight but was just short-headed by Dawaa, who went on to run very well in a Classy fillies’ handicap at Newmarket on her next run, finishing just half a length away from the smart Spangled. That handicap at York has worked out very well indeed over the past few weeks – the third placed Quick N Quirky and the fifth placed Company Asset went on to run very well behind Hawatif in a decent fillies’ handicap at Newmarket, while the fourth placed Ice Age won next time out at Windsor. A mark of 95 is 10lbs lower than where Twin Sails started the season and there must be plenty of juice in it judging by his good two-year-old form. Obviously there is the chance that the blinkers won’t work as well second time out, but he just looked as if he’d rediscovered the spark that helped him to finish just three quarters of a length behind Galileo Gold in last year’s Vintage Stakes and if he can put his best foot forward under Dane O’Neill, 14/1 is a very generous price.

MY Advice

TWIN SAILS – 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (Sky Bet)

[Jimmy2shoes]

The Gurkha