Euro 2016 > Group B Outright

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[StevieDay1983]

Group B Betting Preview

It is the battle of the home nations in Group B where the fourth favourites to win the tournament England will be joined by their neighbours Wales. That fixture is certain to stir a lot of emotions between the two nations but will also be a pivotal game to decide who qualifies from the group. Russia finished the qualification campaign unbeaten but have been inconsistent in pre-tournament friendlies. Slovakia added Spain and Germany to their scalps over the past couple of years and come into this tournament undefeated in 8 matches.

Selection

Marek Hamsik To Finish Slovakia Top Goalscorer @ 5.5 with Sky Bet

Full Article: http://punts.pl/8JrAP4

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England

 

 

Their draw

 

 

The tournament’s fourth favorite at 10 (Betfair). A mixture of a favourable draw and a surprising young team means that England could be in for a deep run at last. The group is very manageable and should suit England very well. In case England tops its group as expected, the Three Lions will face a third-placed team from the French/German/Spanish group. As for France, the worst case scenario would be Poland or Croatia but it will likely be an easier option. In the Quarters, one of the top four teams from the Belgian and Portuguese groups is waiting. This will be the first real test for England and they will likely have to play the first team that is solid at the back and has options at front too. Spain would await them in the Semis if things go according to plan. A decent draw indeed and if England their trend as flat-track bully (going to discuss that in a minute), they will have to face one strong team to make the Semis. Odds of 3 to make it that far (Ladbrokes) look worth a shot.

 

 

Their strengths

 

 

I have to say I am impressed with England this time. Is it finally going to be the time they wake up and go on a deep run? Things haven’t looked that promising in a while. And the upside is that the side should be even better in two years’ time for the World Cup. England looks well-prepared tactically this time. Their focus lies on direct quick football that utilises the strengths of their technically capable and fast players up front. They can start with two strikers in Kane and Vardy and Rooney behind them or change it to a 433 that could make use of the fast and direct Sterling and Sturridge. The beauty is that England has plenty of options off the bench this time. On top of that, they can mix it up with different types of players for their attacking positions. Their unit looks cohesive and stable at the back. The defense conceded only three times and England scored 20 times in 8 qualifiers (San Marino excluded) to win all 10 matches. In their friendlies since, they failed only to score against Spain.

 

 

Weaknesses

 

 

This all sounds very promising. However, England faces two big issues. The first is that their defense has been leaking goals recently. England managed only two clean sheets in seven games since qualifications, against Portugal and France (in the post-terror attack match). Cahill and Smalling are a decent pairing but both arguably lack the quality that the tournament’s top central defense pairings have. Spain, Germany and Portugal are either better individually or play lower-risk approach. England second weakness ties somewhat into the first. The team lacks experience and could be seen as a flat-track bully. Yes, they won all qualification matches but have lost since to Spain and the Netherlands. Against Germany they scored an impressive, if improbable, comeback win from two goals down. A lot of the younger players (and older – Jamie Vardy) will play their first big tournament this time. That could definitely be a factor in the latter stages of the tournament. England cannot quite control a match like Spain and does not have the impressive tournament credentials like Germany.

 

 

The group stage

 

 

With all that said – the group is doing England a big favour. Russia is far from being on course on becoming a top team until 2018. England should exploit its slow back line and pick up three points in the opener. Odds on England have come in quite a bit after their good results recently so I will personally hold out for 2,1 in play. Still, I expect England to take full points there. The “derby” against Wales looks like the toughest assignment. The Welsh have a very defensive setup and England will have to force play there probably even more than in the other two matches. I would rate Slovakia as the easiest assignment and expect another three points there. With all three opponents sitting back and defending England will probably not be dropping goals at will on them. The wins should come though and I think waiting a bit in play for better odds in all three matches is a decent strategy. I would be surprised if they finished on less than 7 points.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

Quo vadis England? Which road are they going to head down? In a decent but very average group, anything but winning it would surprise me big time. I definitely recommend the 1,83 on them to win the group (Bet365). This should not be higher than 1,65 in my opinion as the other teams will likely take points off each other as well. From then on the path gets more difficult and they will face a test of character in the Quarter Finals. With their poor tournament credentials and a questionable record against bigger national sides, I could not bring myself to back them for the Semis. But I think they do have the potential to make it that far.

 

 

Picks

 

 

England to win Group B – 1 Unit@1,83 – Bet365

England to beat Russia – 1 Unit@ 2,1 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

Russia

 

 

The team

 

 

Not only Russia’s economy is in a stage of crisis. The team was already headed for the exit sign before the conductor was changed and Leonid Slutsky led them to four straight wins to secure qualification. Their credentials still do not make for good reading. Two wins came against Liechtenstein and a third in a suspended match versus Montenegro. That leaves three wins and seven goals in seven matches. Friendlies since have not been much better. After a good win over Portugal, they lost three out of five, all of them to teams that play at the Euro. Problems can be found everywhere. The defense is rather old and slow. The Berezutzkis are 33, Ignashevich 36. Neustädter was given Russian citizenship and started in their final friendly and he might be an alternative, especially in the opening fixture against England. Denisov is out with injury on short notice, which leaves them without a holding midfielder. Build-up play is solid but uncreative versus teams that give them little room to operate. In all fairness, Russia made progress on that end and has scored in every single match since Slutsky’s takeover. Dzuyba, Kokorin and Shatov have good chemistry since they all play for Zenit. The question is how much the talented offense can make up for a questionable back line.

 

 

The group stage

 

 

Russia opens against England and the English should feast on that dodgy defense if Hodgson sets them up correctly. I mentioned in my England preview that I will hold out for better odds on the English side. I would make the same case for the over here. This match looks like one of the few opening fixtures that could actually feature goals. Both teams have their strengths in offense rather than defense and playing on the counter should suit Russia a bit more. Nothing wrong with taking the Over 2 at odds of 2,0 or higher as I expect play to open up the longer the match goes. Russia face Slovakia second and again odds on goals look decent with the over priced at 2,5. Much will depend on the outcomes of the first match. The final match against Wales is pure guesswork in this even group but Russia will not like having to force play in this one.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

As is often the case in Russia, there is potential for success but things are not going according to plan. They are poor at the back and not good enough in attack to make up for it. If they come second, Russia would face Portugal or Austria in the R16. Both look more cohesive and this will likely be the ceiling for their campaign. A third place would match them up with Germany or Spain and things could get nasty there. In this even group even coming last is not out of the question if things really go south.

 

 

Picks

 

 

England vs Russia Over 2 goals – 1 Unit@ 2,0 inplay as long as the score is 0-0 and 11v11

 

 

Wales

 

 

The team

 

 

Wales is another newcomer at the tournament and one that is more likely to score an upset. They operate with a back five and from an incredible stable defense. Wales are not classic busparkers. The team averaged more passes than their opponents in qualifications and had more possession than Ukraine and Sweden in their last two friendlies. They build up very slow and control the game. Incredibly, they haven’t conceded from open play in qualifications, as all four goals came from set pieces. Wales hasn’t won a friendly since and conceded three each against the Netherlands and Sweden. Their talismanic striker, and pretty much only source of goals – 7/11 in qualis – Gareth Bale didn’t start in any of those and that likely had a detrimental effect. He will return of course and he will have to do it all as all their attacking plays involve him in one way or another. Bale and Ramsey are the only true class players on the team. Take them out and you pretty much have yourself a point guaranteed already.

 

 

The outlook

 

 

Wales has a decent draw with a pretty balanced group. England is head and shoulders above them but not guaranteed at all to score an easy win. Russia looks dodgy in defense and Wales will probably let them force play. Slovakia is a counterattacking team itself, and I doubt they will like what they are going to see in their opener. The under at 1,45 is nastily low but should cash in nevertheless. Expect a lot of slow, grindhouse-type matches with Wales and few goals. Qualification would be a huge success and 4 points is not unrealistic at all.

 

 

Picks

 

 

Wales vs Slovakia Under 2,5 goals – 1 Unit@1,44 (Bet365)

 

 

Slovakia

 

 

Slovakia is the last team in the group. Outside of Martin Skrtel and their star Marek Hamsik they have few “name players”. Slovakia will likely opt for a counterattacking strategy against Russia and England. They might even let Wales control the tempo of the game, which will most likely make for an unattractive game. Slovakia scored only 10 goals in 8 qualifiers (Luxemburg excluded), but they did beat Spain and recently Germany in a friendly. They are a bit of an enigmatic team, struggling to break down some smaller teams but others not (scoring three vs Switzerland, Iceland and Georgia). They should be massively outclassed by better sides but are good for the odd upset. For an unspectacular team Slovakia shows surprising highs and lows. Hence, I don’t really what to make of them. A stalemate in their opener versus Wales looks likely and a 0-0 would not surprise me at all. That would force them to get a bit more proactive versus Russia in their second match. Although I see England a class above them, I don’t think they would be intimidated by them. Remember, Slovakia beat Italy 3-2 at the World Cup 2010. As for the other two sides, anything between 2 and 4 seems possible for them but four matches is the maximum they are going to play.